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Fangraphs: Scoring from First

weams

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-final-play-of-last-nights-braves-game/

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With two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning of last night’s game between the Braves and Phillies, the visiting Phillies were holding on to a two-run lead. Dansby Swanson stood on first base with Adeiny Hechavarría on second. Freddie Freeman was facing off against new Phillies acquisition Brandon Workman. In terms of compelling endings, this is pretty close to what you hope for. One of the better hitters in the game had a chance to hit a walk-off home run to end the game, while making an out would mean victory for the other side. Freeman did get a hit, pushing a double into the gap, but the game ended when Swanson was thrown out at home trying to score the tying run.

 

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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45 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

Another example of taking the once greatest game in the world, for its simplicity, as well as other things, and making it so complicated that a team of lawyers would argue endlessly about it, then kick it upstairs to the Supreme Court.

So... in your perfect world there wouldn't be exciting bang-bang plays at the plate to end the game?  I guess I'm missing something here.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they are bemoaning the fact that folks are doing more than being inspired by the beauty of game.

Whelp, he's right.  Them whippersnappers and their book learnin' have ruined it all.  It was best when scientific baseball meant a lot of bunts and hitting-and-running six times a game.  Not, you know, actual science.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Whelp, he's right.  Them whippersnappers and their book learnin' have ruined it all.  It was best when scientific baseball meant a lot of bunts and hitting-and-running six times a game.  Not, you know, actual science.

Don't call me a whelp.  I'm like a year younger than you and significantly larger.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Here’s the part that made sense to me:

“If Swanson stays on third, the Braves have about a one-in-four shot at winning the game as they still need another hit — or a wild pitch or an error — to score a run and tie the game. If Swanson makes it home safely and Freeman ends up standing on third base as the potential winning run, the Braves have a 62.7% chance of winning the game. If Swanson decides to try to make it home, he risks losing 24.2% in win expectancy should he make an out, versus gaining 38.5% in win expectancy if he is safe. That means Swanson should try for home if he believes he has a 39% chance of being safe.“

In his career, Swanson has tried to score from 1st on a double 19 times, and been thrown out once — and it happened to be in this game.   As the article said: “Swanson’s decision was a good one, despite the result.“

In MLB this year, runners have tried to score from 1st on a double 191 times, and have been thrown out 11.    That’s a 94% success rate.   But they only go for it 43% of the time.   So obviously, runners usually only try for home if they are pretty sure they’re going to make it.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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21 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

That's like ignoring your A1C numbers because why complicate eating a Twinkie?

If you're going to ignore the diabeetus you might as well get your money's worth.  Like some cherry pie and a big ol' scoop of ice cream.  And some coffee.

And... the thread has turned into anti-sabermetrics as a quick descent into a diabetic coma.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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15 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you're going to ignore the diabeetus you might as well get your money's worth.  Like some cherry pie and a big ol' scoop of ice cream.  And some coffee.

And... the thread has turned into anti-sabermetrics as a quick descent into a diabetic coma.

What's wrong with coffee?

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