If only Elias hadn't traded the 11th best player in baseball (Bundy) for next to nothing

[Sports Guy]

And btw, no, Duq wasn’t a very good GM for us.

But his hands were also tied, so it’s tough to really grade him.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, no, Duq wasn’t a very good GM for us.

But his hands were also tied, so it’s tough to really grade him.

He wasn't Branch Rickey, but Oriole playoff appearances per GM since 1999:

Elias: 0
Duquette: 3
McPhail: 0
Beattie-Flanagan: 0
Thrift: 0
Wren: 0

I guess you could give them all F's, except Duquette a C and Elias an incomplete.  But I have a hard time being as down on Duquette (and Showalter) as others here are.  Under them the O's played the only meaningful games of the past 22 years.

[Tony-OH]

On 9/8/2020 at 3:21 AM, wildcard said:

Dan Duquette was a good GM for the O's.  There is that what you are looking for?   Dan had a tough job.   Peter Angelos was not easy to work for and did not give Dan a free hand to do what he wanted.   Peter sometimes directed player signings.  And Buck didn't not report to Dan.  Buck could go around Dan any time he wanted to the owner.   So the two butted heads at times.  It was a different time and a different organizational structure and in spite of that Dan was Executive of the Year in 2014 for getting the O's deep into the playoffs.

Elias acknowledges that many of the players now with the O's where drafted by Dan.  Elias is not trying to take credit for that.   However Dan never had the  player development system that Elias has built nor the analytics.    That is probably not Dan's fault because the money went for players not infrastructure under Peter Angelos.  But acknowledge what Elias is doing.

I am happy for Dylan Bundy but trading him was the right thing to do in a rebuild.  Dylan's fastball was 96+ in his early years.  Injuries took there toll.  His fastball now averages 90 now according to Brook Baseball.  He is not same pitcher he was and probably not good match for Camden Yards and its 318 down the right field line and 365 to left center.  Angels Park is 350 down the right field line and 390 to left center.  Most of the other parks in the AL East are small also.

Dylan pitched 5 times at home.  Twice in Oakland and once Seattle.  All much larger parks than in the AL East.  And in those 8 starts Dylan has given up 4 homers.   In 2018 for the O's Dylan gave up 41 homers in 31 games.  Its hard to win that way.

And I don't know how you can say that Dylan was traded for nothing.   Maybe your scouting ability is really good but three of the players received were 22 and 23 years old.  Elias puts them into his player development system and who knows how good they will be.  I think Elias probably scouted some of those players for the draft.

So Dan was good, Elias is good and Dylan is doing well.  And all is right with the world.

Excellent well thought out post. 

I wanted to highlight what I feel is the major difference in the Duquette regime (and use that loosely because of the things you mentioned in you post which were spot on) and Elias regime. The development system with the high speed cameras and analytics is already bearing fruit with guys like Akin, Kremer and Mountcastle and we also have to look at the improvements of guys like Severino. 

Akin and Kremer are both working in the upper portions of the strike zones with their high spin rate four seamers and although it's just one start, the Orioles looked like they took away Kremer's awful changeup and replaced it with a cutter. Akin looks like he ditched his curveball and has gone to just a three-pitch mix and his changeup has improved to the point it looks like his best offspeed pitch similar to Means.

I'm betting a lot of this is based off the information they were getting off those cameras and analytics and that is huge difference.

I'm on record that I think Duquette was good as certain aspects of being a GM and I think we also have to give some credit to Gary Rajsich who drafted a lot of this talent that we see arriving (Akin, Mountcastle, Harvey, Hays) and having success with more in the pipeline (Rodriguez, Hall, Lowther, Rom, AHall).

As for the Bundy trade, I think Elias took the gamble that Bundy was at his highest value with his price tag increasing. We obviously still don't know what the Orioles have really received in the 4 pitchers acquired for him, but I don't think I would have any in the top 20 prospects and that's a little disappointing. 

You brought up a good point about the parks he's been pitching in and Anaheim is much better than Camden Yards for him as well, so it's doubtful he would be putting up the same numbers. 

His pitch selection has moved more slider heavy which started last year as well with the Orioles, but it's not like his stuff took a huge step forward.

I'm not going to say Elias gave Bundy away until we see how the pitchers he acquired develop and even if he did, there's not a ton of evidence that suggests he would put up the numbers he's putting up this year pitching in Camden Yards and against the AL and NL East teams.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He wasn't Branch Rickey, but Oriole playoff appearances per GM since 1999:

Elias: 0
Duquette: 3
McPhail: 0
Beattie-Flanagan: 0
Thrift: 0
Wren: 0

I guess you could give them all F's, except Duquette a C and Elias an incomplete.  But I have a hard time being as down on Duquette (and Showalter) as others here are.  Under them the O's played the only meaningful games of the past 22 years.

This is about where I am.  DD wasn't perfect but he and Buck presided over the only good teams in this century.  

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He wasn't Branch Rickey, but Oriole playoff appearances per GM since 1999:

Elias: 0
Duquette: 3
McPhail: 0
Beattie-Flanagan: 0
Thrift: 0
Wren: 0

I guess you could give them all F's, except Duquette a C and Elias an incomplete.  But I have a hard time being as down on Duquette (and Showalter) as others here are.  Under them the O's played the only meaningful games of the past 22 years.

As I always say "Actions speak louder than words." That can be twisted into "Results speak louder than opinions." 

Duquette had his hands tied in ways that no other Orioles GM has probably ever had when you add in Showalter and then the Brady situation. Before the Toronto situation basically neutered him, he was building a consistent winner. Who know what happens after the 2014 season and if that never goes down?

Saying that, I'm glad Elias is here now and has installed the technology and analytics while putting a new found emphasis on international scouting and signings that was never done under the Duquette regime.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He wasn't Branch Rickey, but Oriole playoff appearances per GM since 1999:

Elias: 0
Duquette: 3
McPhail: 0
Beattie-Flanagan: 0
Thrift: 0
Wren: 0

I guess you could give them all F's, except Duquette a C and Elias an incomplete.  But I have a hard time being as down on Duquette (and Showalter) as others here are.  Under them the O's played the only meaningful games of the past 22 years.

I’m of the opinion that MacPhail and Buck had more to do with that run than Duq.

I don’t think Duq was bad..but I wouldn’t call him very good either.  I think he was ok but ok wasn’t that bad considering his hands were tied.

[Natty]

Wasn't it DD who let Nelson Cruz get away? 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m of the opinion that MacPhail and Buck had more to do with that run than Duq.

I don’t think Duq was bad..but I wouldn’t call him very good either.  I think he was ok but ok wasn’t that bad considering his hands were tied.

You can have that opinion of course, but we've beaten this thing into the ground for years here. DD rebuilt the starting staff and brought in many players for the team to take that jump forward. Was Buck a big part of this, sure. Was MacPhail's trades, especially the Bedard trade that brought Adam Jones and Chris Tillman part of it, sure. 

Regardless, the guy in charge at the time gets the credit just like they take the blame when things go bad. Duquette had as much or more to do with the winning rosters than any of the other two. 

Regardless, that's all water under the bridge. I think we're all happy Elias is doing his thing here now.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Natty said:

Wasn't it DD who let Nelson Cruz get away? 

The guy that let him walk in exchange for a first round pick?  Sure. 

Just wish he had done the same with Davis and Trumbo.

 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Natty said:

Wasn't it DD who let Nelson Cruz get away? 

Counterpoint, he was also the guy who signed Nelson Cruz when nobody else would take his agent's phone call. Stroke of genius and 2014 would not have happened without it. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You can have that opinion of course, but we've beaten this thing into the ground for years here. DD rebuilt the starting staff and brought in many players for the team to take that jump forward. Was Buck a big part of this, sure. Was MacPhail's trades, especially the Bedard trade that brought Adam Jones and Chris Tillman part of it, sure. 

Regardless, the guy in charge at the time gets the credit just like they take the blame when things go bad. Duquette had as much or more to do with the winning rosters than any of the other two. 

Regardless, that's all water under the bridge. I think we're all happy Elias is doing his thing here now.

I think you win with Your core talent and that core talent was mostly brought in from AM.

But Duq did a good job of supplementing that talent with the limited resources he had to work with.  He put them over the top, talent wise...Buck molded and guided those teams and the culture around the team undoubtedly changed once Buck got here.  That was pretty huge.

I was never an AM fan and I’m still not but I do credit him for giving us many of the members of the core of those teams.

But yes, give me Elias over all of them.  He has going in the direction that I don’t believe any of them had us going in.

 

[CallMeBrooksie]

6 minutes ago, Natty said:

Wasn't it DD who let Nelson Cruz get away? 

 

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The guy that let him walk in exchange for a first round pick?  Sure. 

Just wish he had done the same with Davis and Trumbo.

 

 

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Counterpoint, he was also the guy who signed Nelson Cruz when nobody else would take his agent's phone call. Stroke of genius and 2014 would not have happened without it. 

Yes, this is another dead-horse convo here... but letting Cruz walk with a QO was viewed as the right move at the time and it's justifiable-at-worst even in retrospect.

Recent PED-user with a career year on the wrong side of 30 on a cheap 1-year deal... let someone else pay him.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m of the opinion that MacPhail and Buck had more to do with that run than Duq.

I don’t think Duq was bad..but I wouldn’t call him very good either.  I think he was ok but ok wasn’t that bad considering his hands were tied.

MacPhail gets some credit, but he was unwilling to do any number of things that Duquette did that pushed them over the top.  I think Duquette's strength was finding those Weaver-like underutilized assets, and getting Buck to properly deploy them.  They got the last good 500 at bats out of Nate McLouth, they got Steve Pearce and 100 solid ABs out of Jim Thome, and built an amazing bullpen out of random guys like Jim Johnson and Luis Ayala and O'Day and Strop and Patton and Britton.

MacPhail was very passive, not very creative.  His hands were tied like all the other GMs, and his reaction was to fall back on the draft and hope it worked out.  That's an over-simplification, but he was very conservative.  Right down to the sweater!

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Natty said:

Wasn't it DD who let Nelson Cruz get away? 

That was an awesome move.  Nobody in their right mind would sign a 34-year-old DH to a four-year guaranteed contract.  Do you really want another Ryan Howard, Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval situation?  That's what happens the vast majority of the time.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

 

 

Yes, this is another dead-horse convo here... but letting Cruz walk with a QO was viewed as the right move at the time and it's justifiable-at-worst even in retrospect.

Recent PED-user with a career year on the wrong side of 30 on a cheap 1-year deal... let someone else pay him.

16.2 rWAR/15.2 fWAR to go.