Roch on the OF situation

[Aristotelian]

8 hours ago, weams said:

Not that I've ever observed. 

He had me convinced that Eshelman should be in the rotation for Leblanc. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

He had me convinced that Eshelman should be in the rotation for Leblanc. 

Eshelman is certainly better than  LeBlanc was.   Elias/Hyde decided they wanted to go with Lopez, Akin and Kremer in the rotation over Eshelman which is a good call.  But none of those pitchers were with the O's when I said Eshelman should replace LeBlanc in the rotation. 

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, wildcard said:

1.  I said the O's were probably a .500 team  when many were saying that they were a last place team trying for a #1 draft choice.  People have come my way.

2. I said Mullins could play CF and would probably hit when many were stuck thinking for him as the guy who could not could not hit at AAA last year.  People are agreeing more and more with me.

3. I was in Valaika's corner before most.  People see his value more now.

I think you were too optimistic on all three fronts, but that the Orioles, Mullins and Valaika all were better than some thought.

We’ll see where the O’s end up in this 60 game season.    They’re at a low ebb right now, so I don’t want to count them out of a rebound over the next two weeks.    But to be clear, rooting for the O’s to grab a last playoff spot is not the same as thinking they’re probably a .500 team.    Right now they’re a .444 team — that gets you to 72-90 over a full season.   They could just as easily play worse from here as play better.    But at least they have shown some improvement despite not having Mancini all year.

It never made sense to me that Mullins was hitting so poorly last year or the start of this one.    But I generally assume — not always correctly* — that a guy with Mullins’ MiL track record (drafted out of college, moved along at a fairly standard track) will hit a bit worse as a major leaguer than as a minor leaguer.    For me a .749 MiL OPS (East Coast) suggests a .700 - .715 major league OPS as a likely outcome.   The good news is that Mullins has plus range even in CF, and can do the little things.   So even at .700 - .715 OPS (heck, even a tad lower), he has some value as a major league player IMO.

I’m still figuring out Valaika, but I expect him to be a rung below Mullins.    His MiL numbers are similar to Mullins, but playing in more hitter-friendly environments.    He’s not a plus fielder anywhere, but he’s reasonably versatile.   I prefer him to Stevie Wilkerson.   He might be as good as Ryan Flaherty overall, but he’ll have to prove it.   
———

*See Yastrzemski, Mike.

[Frobby]

There are a lot of interesting debates and impressions in this thread.    The OF situation is certainly one of the more interesting aspects of the Orioles.   What’s fascinating to me is these are five guys who have been in our system a long time, and all have had their ups and downs, and they’re all still in the growth phase.   As of yesterday:

Santander 709 PA, age 25

Mullins 362 PA, age 25

Stewart 240 PA, age 26

Hays 215 PA, age 24

Mountcastle 74 PA, age 23

We still don’t really know how any of them will turn out.   

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think you were too optimistic on all three fronts, but that the Orioles, Mullins and Valaika all were better than some thought.

We’ll see where the O’s end up in this 60 game season.    They’re at a low ebb right now, so I don’t want to count them out of a rebound over the next two weeks.    But to be clear, rooting for the O’s to grab a last playoff spot is not the same as thinking they’re probably a .500 team.    Right now they’re a .444 team — that gets you to 72-90 over a full season.   They could just as easily play worse from here as play better.    But at least they have shown some improvement despite not having Mancini all year.

It never made sense to me that Mullins was hitting so poorly last year or the start of this one.    But I generally assume — not always correctly* — that a guy with Mullins’ MiL track record (drafted out of college, moved along at a fairly standard track) will hit a bit worse as a major leaguer than as a minor leaguer.    For me a .749 MiL OPS (East Coast) suggests a .700 - .715 major league OPS as a likely outcome.   The good news is that Mullins has plus range even in CF, and can do the little things.   So even at .700 - .715 OPS (heck, even a tad lower), he has some value as a major league player IMO.

I’m still figuring out Valaika, but I expect him to be a rung below Mullins.    His MiL numbers are similar to Mullins, but playing in more hitter-friendly environments.    He’s not a plus fielder anywhere, but he’s reasonably versatile.   I prefer him to Stevie Wilkerson.   He might be as good as Ryan Flaherty overall, but he’ll have to prove it.   
———

*See Yastrzemski, Mike.

It would actually be better if the O's did lose over the next two weeks.   They are pretty much out of the playoff race.   Losing gives them a better draft choice.    And playing the Braves, Rays and Jays, all playoff teams, its a good bet that the O's will lose a lot.   So I have to agree that overall they are not a .500 team though they played like one for a good while.   The O's being sellers  at the deadline hurt the pitching staff.  I think that is a major factor in their September down turn.

We should not judge Mullins offense by OPS but rather by OBP.  That is his game.

Valaika has been so valuable to the O's that I think he stays on the 40 man roster all winter  and is with the team in 2021.

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Eshelman is certainly better than  LeBlanc was.   Elias/Hyde decided they wanted to go with Lopez, Akin and Kremer in the rotation over Eshelman which is a good call.  But none of those pitchers were with the O's when I said Eshelman should replace LeBlanc in the rotation. 

LeBlanc was obviously injured this season but I’ll bet that Eshelman never has a season as good as LeBlanc has 2 years ago in Seattle. 162 innings 3.72 ERA.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are a lot of interesting debates and impressions in this thread.    The OF situation is certainly one of the more interesting aspects of the Orioles.   What’s fascinating to me is these are five guys who have been in our system a long time, and all have had their ups and downs, and they’re all still in the growth phase.   As of yesterday:

Santander 709 PA, age 25

Mullins 362 PA, age 25

Stewart 240 PA, age 26

Hays 215 PA, age 24

Mountcastle 74 PA, age 23

We still don’t really know how any of them will turn out.   

And none of them are complete players. 

Santander - OBP/hit

Mullins - Power, noodle arm, hit

Stewart - hit, defense

Hays - hit

Mountcastle - defense

 

[Can_of_corn]

Almost as if complete players aren't common.

[weams]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

We should not judge Mullins offense by OPS but rather by OBP.  That is his game.

 

 

That is no game. It is a numeric component of a larger predictive statistical metric. Getting on base is cool. Stealing or getting caught doing so is bad, hitting 98 MPH fastballs up is the game. 

[Roll Tide]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How is switch hitting his problem?

You think if he goes up against LHP left handed he's going to improve enough to play versus lefties?

Left handed pitching is a problem.

Just because a quy switch hits doesnt mean that he's good at it. He probably started doing it at some point and against lesser competition was successful. He's clearly not been very successful doing it thus far in professional baseball.

I don't understand why you'd even ask this question though! You can clearly look at his splits and get my point. Will he hit better from one side of the plate? maybe/maybe not .... I can't imagine it being worse.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

It would actually be better if the O's did lose over the next two weeks.   They are pretty much out of the playoff race.   Losing gives them a better draft choice.    And playing the Braves, Rays and Jays, all playoff teams, its a good bet that the O's will lose a lot.   So I have to agree that overall they are not a .500 team though they played like one for a good while.   The O's being sellers  at the deadline hurt the pitching staff.  I think that is a major factor in their September down turn.

We should not judge Mullins offense by OPS but rather by OBP.  That is his game.

Valaika has been so valuable to the O's that I think he stays on the 40 man roster all winter  and is with the team in 2021.

 

1.   Orioles have a 3.91 ERA since the trade deadline.  I would not say the deadline deals have hurt them much yet.    

2.  As I said in another post in response to the same wrongheaded point, Mullins’ MiL line of .265/.323/.426 does not suggest that OBP is his game.    He’ll be lucky to carry a .310 OBP as a major leaguer.   

3.    Yeah I think the O’s might keep Valaika on the 40.     They kept Flaherty all those years.   

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just because a quy switch hits doesnt mean that he's good at it. He probably started doing it at some point and against lesser competition was successful. He's clearly not been very successful doing it thus far in professional baseball.

I don't understand why you'd even ask this question though! You can clearly look at his splits and get my point. Will he hit better from one side of the plate? maybe/maybe not .... I can't imagine it being worse.

That is one of the things we differ on.

I can imagine it being worse.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

We should not judge Mullins offense by OPS but rather by OBP.  That is his game.

 

 

Judging him by OBP he is still pretty bad. Even with his recent hot streak his OBP is only .327 which puts him at league average in that category. Aside from speed, he is below average in just about every other aspect of the game. If OBP is his best asset, he is not an everyday player, though he could be useful in some situations.  

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, weams said:

That is no game. It is a numeric component of a larger predictive statistical metric. Getting on base is cool. Stealing or getting caught doing so is bad, hitting 98 MPH fastballs up is the game. 

If only they had metrics that properly weighed OBP vs. other factors.    Oh wait, they do!  So let’s just use wOBA (.312 for Mullins this year) or wRC+ (94) for example.  They show that Mullins is a slightly below offensive player this year, and way below average for his career (.274/67).    But this year’s numbers, if sustained, are certainly acceptable for a plus defensive CF.     .316/96 is average for CF.   As I said, Mullins could slip a bit from his 2020 numbers and still be a big league player.   

[HowAboutThat]

Mullins is meh.

It is a truism that guys hang around until someone better comes along. Someone better than Mullins is already here in Hays but he keeps getting injured.