Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, atomic said:

Workplace violence?  I don’t understand how pro athletes get such small penalties,for any other job you would get fired.

Sports always have exemptions from the real world. Some make sense, some don't.  If you throw baseball anywhere near someone who's not expecting it you could get arrested. If you're ice skating and start a fistfight you're probably going to jail.  A typical free safety-wide receiver collision is probably a felony if you do it at the coffee mess in your office.  If you violate the Sherman anti-trust act in any business except baseball you're going to court. 

If you nonsensically apply rules and laws designed for other contexts to sports, then sports probably can't exist.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sports always have exemptions from the real world. Some make sense, some don't.  If you throw baseball anywhere near someone who's not expecting it you could get arrested. If you're ice skating and start a fistfight you're probably going to jail.  A typical free safety-wide receiver collision is probably a felony if you do it at the coffee mess in your office.  If you violate the Sherman anti-trust act in any business except baseball you're going to court. 

If you nonsensically apply rules and laws designed for other contexts to sports, then sports probably can't exist.

What does punching someone have to do with baseball.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

What does punching someone have to do with baseball.  

Try using abstract thought.

[Il BuonO]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Try using abstract thought.

Consider the source. That’s a reach.

[BohKnowsBmore]

A blast from the past:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/underrated-reliever-quietly-pitches-himself-toward-trade-candidacy/

Quote

Nobody can definitively say whether the Reds will be sellers at the trade deadline this year. At 33-38 and near the bottom of the National League Central, they certainly look the part of sellers. Their Pythagorean record is quite a bit better than that, but they’re well back of the Brewers and Cubs and drifting away from the Wild Card slots. They have several guys on the roster playing out the final years of their contracts, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they sold. If so, one of the players plenty of teams will be interested in David Hernandez.

 

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

A blast from the past:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/underrated-reliever-quietly-pitches-himself-toward-trade-candidacy/

 

If we would have just kept Mark Reynolds on the salaries he’s been paid since he left, you’d have to say we won the Reynolds/Hernandez swap. It would mean no Chris Davis extension. 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we would have just kept Mark Reynolds on the salaries he’s been paid since he left, you’d have to say we won the Reynolds/Hernandez swap. It would mean no Chris Davis extension. 

Since 2013 Reynolds has been worth one win, Davis 13. I enjoyed the good Davis years.  I'll take that over seven years of replacement-level performance with a peak of 1.5 wins, even with the contract.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since 2013 Reynolds has been worth one win, Davis 13. I enjoyed the good Davis years.  I'll take that over seven years of replacement-level performance with a peak of 1.5 wins, even with the contract.

Hmmmm, I’d need to think about that one.    Reynolds has cost $15.1 mm since 2013 and has no contractual commitment going forward.    Davis has cost $118.6 mm since 2013 and we’ll owe him another $69 mm after this year.   So, that’s 12 extra wins for an additional $172 mm.     Then take into account that Davis’ two monster seasons occurred in seasons when we didn’t make the playoffs, and he contributed basically nothing to the AL East division championship in 2014.    Plus, his win total is decreasing, not increasing, so the 12-win gap is likely to narrow.   Overall, I’d take Reynolds and the $172 mm.

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hmmmm, I’d need to think about that one.    Reynolds has cost $15.1 mm since 2013 and has no contractual commitment going forward.    Davis has cost $118.6 mm since 2013 and we’ll owe him another $69 mm after this year.   So, that’s 12 extra wins for an additional $172 mm.     Then take into account that Davis’ two monster seasons occurred in seasons when we didn’t make the playoffs, and he contributed basically nothing to the AL East division championship in 2014.    Plus, his win total is decreasing, not increasing, so the 12-win gap is likely to narrow.   Overall, I’d take Reynolds and the $172 mm.

(Apologies for taking this post way deeper than anyone needed)

The 2013 Orioles won 85 games.  With Reynolds instead of Davis they probably win something like 78 games.  That was the year they traded for Scott Feldman and Bud Norris, so it's pretty likely they'd have tried to replace Reynolds and his .699 OPS.

In 2015 they probably win about 75 games trading Davis for Reynolds' 93 OPS+.  Again they were in win-now mode, and probably throw prospects overboard for a Reynolds replacement. 

In 2016 they made the 2nd wildcard, barely.  Davis was worth about two wins over Reynolds, so in a vacuum they miss the playoffs.  Reynolds only played 118 games in Colorado, so he would probably have been worse playing every day in the AL East.

Yes, this is an academic exercise with lots of unknowables. But it's pretty likely that just replacing Davis with Reynolds would have resulted in losing records in 2013 and 2015, and no playoff game in 2016.  We've turned a five-year run with the best record in the AL east into a continuation of the 1998-2011 period, with 2012 as the outlier.  Maybe 2014 happens, but I have my doubts coming on the heels of a losing 2013.

[bobmc]

Not to hijack @DrungoHazewood 's debate but Breyvic Valera's 2B just beat one of our affiliates last night in a weird manner;

 

[Enjoy Terror]

Well that was dumb.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hmmmm, I’d need to think about that one.    Reynolds has cost $15.1 mm since 2013 and has no contractual commitment going forward.    Davis has cost $118.6 mm since 2013 and we’ll owe him another $69 mm after this year.   So, that’s 12 extra wins for an additional $172 mm.     Then take into account that Davis’ two monster seasons occurred in seasons when we didn’t make the playoffs, and he contributed basically nothing to the AL East division championship in 2014.    Plus, his win total is decreasing, not increasing, so the 12-win gap is likely to narrow.   Overall, I’d take Reynolds and the $172 mm.

The Sheriff wins out over the Deputy in the end. 

[interloper]

24 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Well that was dumb.

Would hate to be that guy in the locker room after that. YIKE.

[murph]

30 minutes ago, interloper said:

Would hate to be that guy in the locker room after that. YIKE.

So I went to look at the box score to see who the RF was and its some guy named Feliz?  But it brought up another question.  Hays only had one at bat before being replaced by Feliz, is he hurt again? 

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/tides-vs-railriders/2019/06/19/575753#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575753

Edit:  Should have just checked the minors thread first, I see he pulled up with a tight hammy. 

 

[interloper]

Just now, murph said:

So I went to look at the box score to see who the RF was and its some guy named Feliz?  But it brought up another question.  Hays only had one at bat before being replaced by Feliz, is he hurt again? 

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/tides-vs-railriders/2019/06/19/575753#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=575753

 

Removed for "precautionary reasons" according the beat reporters. Nothing else is known yet.