Trezza: Here's what Orioles are eyeing at Meetings

[Roll Tide]

Nice article 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-on-orioles-winter-meetings-plans

[hoosiers]

A pretty good summary there by Trezza.

The treatment of Cobb could get interesting - whether we bail on him and eat (and save) some of that contract or see if he produces in season and trade him later.

[Sports Guy]

So basically, they are looking to save money, do very little and continue to fool the fan base that rebuilding means they can’t win.

Got it.  
 

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

A pretty good summary there by Trezza.

The treatment of Cobb could get interesting - whether we bail on him and eat (and save) some of that contract or see if he produces in season and trade him later.

Seems like there might be interest in his as a mid rotation guy. I suspect he will be better than in 2020 if healthy. But, probably more valuable at the deadline 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Seems like there might be interest in his as a mid rotation guy. I suspect he will be better than in 2020 if healthy. But, probably more valuable at the deadline 

He definitely could be worth more at the deadline than now.  I suspect if the Os dealt him now, they would be fortunate to save even 4 million and get a deal similar to the Cashner deal.

I think no matter when they trade him this year, if they do, that They will have to pay some of his contract to move him.

[emmett16]

Your schtik is old.  Please just save it.  

[ScGO's]

I would like to see Santander shopped for a Top 100 prospect.  Not saying they can work a deal out.  I just think Santander is at that point where we need to assess if now is the time to sell high. 

I would also start putting feelers out now for Cobb and Mancini with the intention to find a suitor come July.

I would also start throwing John Means name around a little bit too, not with the intention to trade now, but if he can perform well till July, he might be another one we need to consider selling high on.  Could also look to trade him during next offseason.

I think our 2021 Trade Bait list could give us a strong potential return if Cobb, Santander, Means, and Mancini all perform.  Some other smaller names that might be able to build some trade stock this season are Armstrong, Valdez, Valaika, Severino, Sisco, Fry, and Scott.

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[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I would like to see Santander shopped for a Top 100 prospect.  Not saying they can work a deal out.  I just think Santander is at that point where we need to assess if now is the time to sell high. 

I would also start putting feelers out now for Cobb and Mancini with the intention to find a suitor come July.

I would also start throwing John Means name around a little bit too, not with the intention to trade now, but if he can perform well till July, he might be another one we need to consider selling high on.  Could also look to trade him during next offseason.

I think our 2021 Trade Bait list could give us a strong potential return if Cobb, Santander, Means, and Mancini all perform.  Some other smaller names that might be able to build some trade stock this season are Armstrong, Valdez, Valaika, Severino, Sisco, Fry, and Scott.

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Nice post .... I would hold on to Mancini until next offseason I’m not sure why you would deal Means unless we have a surplus. He’s not eligible for free agency until 2025.

I don’t expect to get a top 100 for Santander.... Maybe next offseason after a comparable year performed over 162 healthy games. I suggested a top 5-10 and 2 others.

I wouldn’t deal Cobb unless it nets a nice return. I would expect to eat $5 million of his salary or 1/3 of what’s left at the deadline.

I agree on Severino Valaika Fry etc....Deal them when you think they are at peak value.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I would like to see Santander shopped for a Top 100 prospect.  Not saying they can work a deal out.  I just think Santander is at that point where we need to assess if now is the time to sell high. 

I would also start putting feelers out now for Cobb and Mancini with the intention to find a suitor come July.

I would also start throwing John Means name around a little bit too, not with the intention to trade now, but if he can perform well till July, he might be another one we need to consider selling high on.  Could also look to trade him during next offseason.

I think our 2021 Trade Bait list could give us a strong potential return if Cobb, Santander, Means, and Mancini all perform.  Some other smaller names that might be able to build some trade stock this season are Armstrong, Valdez, Valaika, Severino, Sisco, Fry, and Scott.

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Interesting post that really has to make you start considering a few things, mainly who do you envision to be part of the next legit contender.

If you were to ask Elias who are the players you think make up the next winning team, I think it’s fairly obvious he will say Mountcastle, Kjerstad, Rutschman, GRod and Hall.  There are probably several other names amongst the pitchers, perhaps Diaz and maybe some of the guys recently drafted or a guy like Henderson who could move quickly depending on a lot of factors.

I don’t see Santander on that list but I do wonder about Means and Mancini.  I can see Elias going either way with them.  I would think Mancini’s value won’t jump until he gets through a full season of playing well and being healthy.  There are different ways Mancini could be a long term fixture for the team.  Personally, I wouldn’t pay him big money to keep him here into his 30s.

Means is the real toss up for me.  He could be a fixture here.  A pitcher who could age well and has good stuff.  If that FB velocity from 2020 is here to stay, he becomes a much higher upside arm.  I think Elias would listen on him but I like Santander, I don’t feel a deal is there for Means that makes sense to trade him now.  I think his ceiling is higher as a pitcher than Santander as a hitter and I think Means represents a greater chance to be here for the long term.  If someone would surprise me and offer a lot more than I think, I would move him but I tend to doubt it.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Win what?  

Games

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  You're the same guy who wants to trade Santander for 2 6-12 ranked prospects.  You're talking out of both sides of your mouth.  Elias isn't trying to fool anyone. He's pretty transparent that they aren't spending on payroll,  are trying to improve the talent pipeline, and will sacrifice present day wins to do that.  Trading Santander would seem to mesh with that.  Are you going to argue that trading Santander for prospects will improve our chances for more wins this year?

I’m not talking out of both sides of my mouth.  I have been consistent in what I’m asking for.  I want to see the team use all avenues to bring in more talent, which is supposedly what Elias wants as well.  I want ownership to allow him to do that.  I don’t want them to do anything that hurts the team long term in any way.  

However, this team has also been trying to lose games for a few years now.  You thinned out the herd and started your process.  Now is the time where you can start making some moves to at least make it look like you are trying to field a representative team while also still looking out for the long term.  Santander isn’t in the long term plays of this team in all likelihood. So, you shop him and if the right deal is there, you move him.

I mean, they could bring Nunez back and give him back the DH spot and he would replace that Santander offense.  

Santander is a 2, maybe 3 win player.  I don’t think it’s that difficult to replace that. He has upside to be more than that..but also downside to be worse than that.  
 

You can also upgrade in other areas as well.  I mentioned a trade with the Rays trying to get Tsutsugo.  Will he be an improvement over Ruiz?  I tend to think so but he was hardly lights out in 2020.  However, scouts like his upside to be a solid player, so perhaps even if you downgrade in RF for now, you upgrade in other spots while also adding to your inventory. 

I have always been a fan of buying and selling and I think the team should be doing it now.
 

 

[Sports Guy]

Btw, I have no delusions that they can contend this year but I don’t want to see a roster full of garbage again.  It’s not necessary to do that.  Time to bring in better players and have a more representative on field product.

Thats all I’m saying.  Do that and allow Elias to use all methods to acquire talent.  Not sure why that’s too much to ask for.

[wildcard]

I see Means and Scott as building blocks.   I think Santander stays until they see how good Kjerstad is and when he is ready for the majors.   Probably sometime during the 2023 season. 

I don't think Elias or O's ownership  will be opposed to spending on their own top players in arbitration years.   Long term contracts may be a whole different ball game.   Cobb comes off the book after 2021,  Daivs after 2022.    As of now there are not any other big contracts that eat up the payroll.   

When Rutschman makes the majors probably in 2022, I think that throws the switch ant Elias tries to win.   No use to wasting any of the Rutschman years.

Mancini is probably traded next off season if he has a good year.

[Camden_yardbird]

Trade Means....

People seem to believe a contending team pops up out of nowhere.  25 prospects take the field and 1st place is magically won.  A team is built.

In 2014,  Dallas Keuchel was in his 3rd year, and had his first good season with an ERA under 5.00.  The Astros won 72 games, and were two more 80 win seasons (1 playoff birth) from becoming a true contender and winning the WS in 2017.

If you really want a competitive Orioles team in 2023 (which is more than enough time to rebuild) why on earth would you trade John Means? 

Now I realize there are some different circumstances, the Orioles have possibly more pitching prospect depth than that Astros team, but not all prospects pan out at some point you have to keep the producers you have, unless you think Means was a flash in the pan.  I don't.

Given the "plan" I think Elias is wasting this off season but then again, maybe I am wrong, that 2014 houston team didn't have any appreciable free agent additions either.

[Sports Guy]

I hope Kjerstad is part of the team before 2023..if not, he probably isn’t the player we hope him to be.

Same with Adley for this year.  If he doesn’t force his way up in 2021, there is a problem.