Trade Bait 2021

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If in 2022 the O's have CF Mullins, LF Hays, RF Santander, 1B/DH Mancini, 1B/DH Mountcastle, C  Rutschman maybe 2B Jones. Then they should spend on one year contracts for better SS and 3B.  Diaz and McKenna as backups. 

Who is the shortstop who is netter than Galvis and who will take a one year contract?   By the way, he’s been worth 0.8 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR so far this year.   If you are looking at reasons why our team has been half-decent this year, he’s definitely one of them.    If you want an upgrade, it’s going to cost you.  

[sportsfan8703]

I agree with Wildcard. We don’t have to keep trading players as soon as they have any value or are making any money over the league min. Realistically it’s looking like we should trade Harvey, Galvis, Franco, Armstrong, and Severino, to the highest bidders. We don’t have to trade Means.  
 

We should listen to offers for Mancini, Santander, and Valdez, if we can get legit options at 3B, SS, and SP. 
 

We really need to hit on 2-3 of Akin, Zimmerman, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann, Wells, Bradish, and Smith, as MLB SP.  

 

 

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Who is the shortstop who is netter than Galvis and who will take a one year contract?   By the way, he’s been worth 0.8 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR so far this year.   If you are looking at reasons why our team has been half-decent this year, he’s definitely one of them.    If you want an upgrade, it’s going to cost you.  

But do you think he can do it all season?

[ScGO's]

Now that we are a little over a month into the season, the potential trade scene is starting to take shape.  Below are the names that have or still have the potential to create value for themselves.

Approaching Peak Value

Trey Mancini - Bat is starting to heat up.  Should be over the .800 OPS mark soon. With only one more season of control after this one, I don't think Elias will want to pay the arbitration price tag on Mancini's final year.  With a year and a half of control left, now is the time to make a move.

John Means - I almost wonder if Elias should entertain an extension.  Means still has less than 250 IP in his career, so even though he is 28, his arm may still have a long career in store.  I would sit back and wait to be blown away by an offer if I do choose to trade him.

Cesar Valdez- Has to be an definite trade candidate.  This is a gift to the O's as he is a 36 year old cast off that has started to make a name for himself.  He has a few years of control left, but with his age and lack of a track record, now is the time to send him out for a prospect or two.

Freddy Galvis - A SS with an over .800?  Someone will look to upgrade if he can sustain this offensive performance, and we might be able to snag a decent prospect.  Even if he sinks back closer to .700, we still might be able to swing him, although the return will probably not be that great.

Matt Harvey - Would like to see him get into the 6th inning more, but as of now, he is our #2 and he could be a great back end option for a playoff team if he stays around 4.00 ERA.  I think his name recognition could put him a tick higher on some teams' radars too.

Tanner Scott - Goes into arbitration next season.  Has the best stuff of all our relievers although he has his wild moments still.  If he stays steady, we should be able to get a better package than what we got for Castro and Givens.

Paul Fry - 28 Years old, arbitration eligible next season.  K rate is awesome right now.  If he keeps this up, someone will want this lefty out of their pen

Cole Sulser - 31 years old, K rate is great. Couldn't sustain the success last year at this point; this is his 2nd chance.  If he succeeds, I see him being moved.

Needs to Build Value

Anthony Santandar - Has to stay healthy.  Hopefully he is back soon and can rake till July.  If not, we will have this conversation against next season.

Shawn Armstrong - I still feel like he has the "stuff," but he has to turn it around quickly or he will be cut.  If he can find consistency, I think he can still create value on the trade market.

Makiel Franco - Slumping after a so-so start.  The hope is that he can get up towards an .800 OPS and we can swing him.  We will know more about his fate by the middle of June.

Pedro Severino - No value as of now, but hopefully he runs into one of his hot streaks and can get that OPS back up near .750.  That plus marketing him as a great game caller following the Means no-hitter might help us get a C- prospect in return.  Cisco has no value right now, so a lot of this depends on Adley being ready.  If he isn't Pedro probably stays the whole season, especially if he doesn't hit.

Pat Valaika- Ruiz and Urias continue to scuffle with the bat.  Looks like Valaika is next up to get the bulk of ABs at 2B.  He is heating up already.  I still think he could have some value as a .750-.800 OPS utility player on a playoff team, especially in the NL.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

Now that we are a little over a month into the season, the potential trade scene is starting to take shape.  Below are the names that have or still have the potential to create value for themselves.

Approaching Peak Value

Trey Mancini - Bat is starting to heat up.  Should be over the .800 OPS mark soon. With only one more season of control after this one, I don't think Elias will want to pay the arbitration price tag on Mancini's final year.  With a year and a half of control left, now is the time to make a move.

John Means - I almost wonder if Elias should entertain an extension.  Means still has less than 250 IP in his career, so even though he is 28, his arm may still have a long career in store.  I would sit back and wait to be blown away by an offer if I do choose to trade him.

Cesar Valdez- Has to be an definite trade candidate.  This is a gift to the O's as he is a 36 year old cast off that has started to make a name for himself.  He has a few years of control left, but with his age and lack of a track record, now is the time to send him out for a prospect or two.

Freddy Galvis - A SS with an over .800?  Someone will look to upgrade if he can sustain this offensive performance, and we might be able to snag a decent prospect.  Even if he sinks back closer to .700, we still might be able to swing him, although the return will probably not be that great.

Matt Harvey - Would like to see him get into the 6th inning more, but as of now, he is our #2 and he could be a great back end option for a playoff team if he stays around 4.00 ERA.  I think his name recognition could put him a tick higher on some teams' radars too.

Tanner Scott - Goes into arbitration next season.  Has the best stuff of all our relievers although he has his wild moments still.  If he stays steady, we should be able to get a better package than what we got for Castro and Givens.

Paul Fry - 28 Years old, arbitration eligible next season.  K rate is awesome right now.  If he keeps this up, someone will want this lefty out of their pen

Cole Sulser - 31 years old, K rate is great. Couldn't sustain the success last year at this point; this is his 2nd chance.  If he succeeds, I see him being moved.

Needs to Build Value

Anthony Santandar - Has to stay healthy.  Hopefully he is back soon and can rake till July.  If not, we will have this conversation against next season.

Shawn Armstrong - I still feel like he has the "stuff," but he has to turn it around quickly or he will be cut.  If he can find consistency, I think he can still create value on the trade market.

Makiel Franco - Slumping after a so-so start.  The hope is that he can get up towards an .800 OPS and we can swing him.  We will know more about his fate by the middle of June.

Pedro Severino - No value as of now, but hopefully he runs into one of his hot streaks and can get that OPS back up near .750.  That plus marketing him as a great game caller following the Means no-hitter might help us get a C- prospect in return.  Cisco has no value right now, so a lot of this depends on Adley being ready.  If he isn't Pedro probably stays the whole season, especially if he doesn't hit.

Pat Valaika- Ruiz and Urias continue to scuffle with the bat.  Looks like Valaika is next up to get the bulk of ABs at 2B.  He is heating up already.  I still think he could have some value as a .750-.800 OPS utility player on a playoff team, especially in the NL.

I disagree with most of this.  You seem to be trade first approach.   I think the O's should keep their good players unless they will lose them to FA if they can get some good for them.  This is a building team not a garage sale.

Trey Mancini - Trey is a productive leader.  I would see if he would accept a 2/25 extension to buy out a FA year.  

John Means - This off season I would sign him 4/50.  Its too hard to find aces to trade him.  Especially home grown ones. Spend some of your stupid money.  He is a good bet to be worth it.

Cesar Valdez-   His age is not relevant.  He is a soft tosser.  He could pitch effectively into in 40s.  He is cheap and good.  Don't trade him.

Freddy Galvis - Career 680 OPS suggests he will not stay at an 800 OPS.  I am not against trading him but he was waived by the Blue Jay in 2019 for nothing which is probably an indication of his trade value.

Matt Harvey - A Boris client.  If he has a good year he will be tough to re-sign.   Trade him if you can get anything in return.

Tanner Scott , Paul Fry  - Keepers.  Well worth their arbitration price.  Pitching well. 

Cole Sulser- Cheap and pitching well. A keeper.

Needs to Build Value

Anthony Santandar -  Part of the core.  Worth the 4.5m arbitration price.

Shawn Armstrong - I still feel like he has the "stuff," but he has to turn it around quickly or he will be cut.  Will probably be a non tender candidate if he makes it that far.  Not worth the arbitration price at his age.

Makiel Franco - Will be a FA.  Has not trade value.

Pedro Severino -  I don't see Elias paying his arbitration price.  Trade him if you can get something for him.  If he has no trade value he is a non tender candidate.  Sisco is cheaper and may stay as Adley's backup.

Pat Valaika- Ruiz and Urias continue to scuffle with the bat.  Looks like Valaika is next up to get the bulk of ABs at 2B.   He is a 2B not a good utility player.    Has no trade value.  Elias will not offer him arbitration again.  He will probably be non tendered.  Ruiz is a non tender candidate.  Urias is cheap and may stay until Elias finds someone better.

 

 

[owknows]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Interesting take.   I think that’s overly optimistic, but not impossible.   Gotta see a lot more hitting out of some of our younger guys, Mullins needs to remain legit, and some of our own young pitching needs to come through.   Don’t forget that Harvey and Galvis are FA at the end of the year.    

Seem like Mancini and Mountcastle are returning to more favorable expectations... Mullins has been exceptional. Hays is heating up. Franco and Galvis are what they are..  which really isn't awful. Would like to see a little more out of C and 2B.  And one more decent starter. I think that might be enough to see post-season baseball. Yeah... it's probably a little optimistic... but it's gonna happen at some point... why not now?

[MurphDogg]

I don't think either is tradable this season due to injury concerns and short track records, but if they both look good in a year, Hays and Mullins could have a fair amount of trade value either in the offseason or the 2022 trade deadline. 

Having two plus defensive centerfielders is a luxury, but if McKenna hits enough to be a a good fourth outfielder, it is worth considering trading either Mullins and Hays to upgrade another position (third, short, or second).

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think either is tradable this season due to injury concerns and short track records, but if they both look good in a year, Hays and Mullins could have a fair amount of trade value either in the offseason or the 2022 trade deadline. 

Having two plus defensive centerfielders is a luxury, but if McKenna hits enough to be a a good fourth outfielder, it is worth considering trading either Mullins and Hays to upgrade another position (third, short, or second).

Why trade either one?

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I disagree with most of this.  You seem to be trade first approach.   I think the O's should keep their good players unless they will lose them to FA if they can get some good for them.  This is a building team not a garage sale.

You can disagree, but I think Elias is still "trade first" in his approach.  Means is the only one I think Elias would consider to an extension at this point, especially if we truly feel he is a true TOR pitcher by July

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

But do you think he can do it all season?

No, but it doesn’t matter.   Right now he’s on pace for a 4 WAR season.  I don’t expect him to keep it up.   More likely he ends up in the 2 WAR range.   But I still ask, who is the upgrade who’s signing a  one-year contract?

[owknows]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why trade either one?

Why trade ANY one?

Get Santander healthy. Get Valaika on 2B.

And get something to supplement the only 2 actual starters we have.

Maybe Lowther will help.

 

They're playing .470 baseball with only two starters and a cardboard cutout at 2B.

Imagine 3 starters that have routinely had a passable outing...  or (gasp) even 4

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by owknows

[Bahama O's Fan]

I agree that we need to keep players that are going to be key to future playoff runs. The problem is we have too many OF/1B/DH than we can play. The more experienced the veteran, the more they cost. Some people will have to go, either by trade or by free agency because we can't afford them. Better to get something for them

[MurphDogg]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Why trade either one?

Feel like that was covered in my post. If it makes the team better, you trade one. It isn't rocket science. The step down from Hays/Mullins to Diaz in left with Hays/Mullins in center is potentially greater than the step up between Maikel Franco or Rio Ruiz and whoever you get for Hays or Mullins.

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Having two plus defensive centerfielders is a luxury, but if McKenna hits enough to be a a good fourth outfielder, it is worth considering trading either Mullins and Hays to upgrade another position (third, short, or second).

If we didn't have holes at 2B, SS and 3B then it may be worth reaping the benefit of playing a centerfielder in left, but I don't see all three of those positions getting filled internally, and unless they spend money on a free agent, a trade is the best way to fill those holes.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Feel like that was covered in my post. If it makes the team better, you trade one. It isn't rocket science. The step down from Hays/Mullins to Diaz in left with Hays/Diaz is potentially greater than the step up between Maikel Franco or Rio Ruiz and whoever you get for Hays or Mullins

 

Betts, Bradley, Benintendi = World Championship for the Red Sox.  Defense is important.  There are other ways to get 3B/SS.

So far I am not sure Diaz is a major leaguer.  Hope he is.   But he has not hit above the Texas League.

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Betts, Bradley, Benintendi = World Championship for the Red Sox.  Defense is important.  There are other ways to get 3B/SS.

So far I am not sure Diaz is a major leaguer.  Hope he is.   But he has not hit above the Texas League.

The ways to get players is to spend money or trade from depth. Having two starting caliber centerfielders is tradeable depth, especially when you have no shortage of corner outfield types on the team and on the horizon (Satander, Mountcastle, Stewart, Diaz, Kjerstad, Jahmai Jones and Tyler Nevin if they end up out there long term as has been speculated).

The Red Sox payroll in that 2018 World Series season was the highest in baseball at $233 million, which gave them the luxury of supplementing their offensive core with high priced free agents like J.D. Martinez ($23.75 million) and Hanley Ramirez (22.75 million), as well as mid-price free agents like Mitch Moreland ($6.5 million), Eduardo Nunez ($4 million) and Steve Pearce (acquired via trade with Toronto paying $1.66 million of his $6.25 million salary). 

So yeah, if the Orioles are willing to spend $60+ million this offseason, I am sure that they can find plenty of great options at 2B, SS and 3B, without trading from depth, but that seems pretty unlikely to me.