Rebuild mode or Sell mode?

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I appreciate the opinions of RR and Frobby regarding Yastrzemski.  Not sure how dealing him represents anything other than a massive internal error in player evaluation and/or development.  Yas was good almost immediately after being dealt.

MY needed less than 175 minor league plate appearances after leaving the Orioles before producing 5.5 WAR in under 600 ABs at the major league level and top 10 NL MVP status.

Call it hindsight or MMQB, but I can only look at a rebuilding team dealing away a prospect with that production and call it a massive fail.

Obviously it turned out very badly.   I’m just saying that dealing a 28-year old outfield prospect with a mediocre track record for a 27-year old pitching prospect with a mediocre track record isn’t really an error in strategy.     

As to the evaluative error, it’s pretty understandable.    Yaz had gone unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft a couple of times, so apparently there were a lot of clubs that didn’t recognize his unrealized talent.    I do wish that in the relatively short time that Elias and staff had to evaluate Yaz, they had seen what was there.   And it’s fine with me to count the failure to do so as a negative mark on Elias’ record.   

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Obviously it turned out very badly.   I’m just saying that dealing a 28-year old outfield prospect with a mediocre track record for a 27-year old pitching prospect with a mediocre track record isn’t really an error in strategy.     

As to the evaluative error, it’s pretty understandable.    Yaz had gone unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft a couple of times, so apparently there were a lot of clubs that didn’t recognize his unrealized talent.    I do wish that in the relatively short time that Elias and staff had to evaluate Yaz, they had seen what was there.   And it’s fine with me to count the failure to do so as a negative mark on Elias’ record.   

I do not see how they can call this a massive error in judgement as everybody pretty much had the same thoughts.

 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I do not see how they can call this a massive error in judgement as everybody pretty much had the same thoughts.

 

Well, the team that is in the best position to evaluate a player is the team that has that player.    So the argument would be that the Elias crew should have figured out what the Giants were able to figure out once they acquired Yastrzemski.  Obviously they had a very short window in which to do that — about five weeks from the time spring training started in 2019 to the day he was traded.    

[Philip]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Committing to a rebuild through tanking is multi-layered - in my opinion.

 - it means putting out a weaker team to generate losses to draft higher. 

 - Often, those weaker teams include overpriced and mediocre performance on veteran contracts that can be difficult to move.

 - It also means not investing in better free agents because the incremental wins are not worth the cost.  The free agent investments that are made can be for lower $ veterans to provide some semblance of decency to a major league team or reclamation projects for previously injured players who are coming back.  The main goal of this spend is often to move the signed free agent to another team if that player performs.

 - generally hoarding a team's prospects and giving them a legit chance to perform as a major leaguer if there careers make it so far.  This is an important step IMO and speaks Elias biggest mistake in letting Yastremski go for peanuts.  Really no excuse for a rebuilding team to deal away its prospects.

 - cutting payroll so that a team can buy free agents at the right point in the competitive cycle when a team is on the upswing.

 - imo, this is also a period of time when an owner is likely to make nice profits due to the low payroll.

As this relates to the Astros, I am surprised to see the word luck bandied about simply because a few draft picks didn't pan out.  I don't think there was much luck at all in how the Astros conducted their business and became an elite team for multiple years.  

As it relates to the Orioles, we are currently in the latter stages of a rebuild, but we have been hampered by some legacy contracts with Cobb and Davis costing over $35M in Year 3 or 4 (depending on your viewpoint) that have prevented additional investments in free agents or lowered owner profits.

I do not think “luck“ can be denied. There are two number one draft picks involved. One did not sign, and was eventually drafted by the Indians and was a historic failure. The Astros got a compensatory pick for not signing him. They actually got a do over, a Mulligan, and the second time they had a no-brainer pick and chose a winner. That’s all luck anyway you slice it.

The other pic, also a number one pick, was traded to the Phillies and was also a miserable fiasco.

That is also luck.

[Philip]

One thing the Astros did that I wish we would do is pick up good guys who failed with other teams. Collin McHugh was a failure with the Rockies, and the Mets, was picked up for nothing by the Astros, and gave them 10.3 fWAR 2014-17. For league minimum.

We need to be casting a wider net and trying to get guys like that.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

How do you know?  Jim Crane bought the Astros for 680m in 2011.   His net worth in 2011 was estimated at 600m.   He had two other companies to run.  A freight company and a venture capital company.  Needless to say he debt service on the purchase of the Astros was probably pretty high.    Maybe he needed to lower payroll.

Since baseball finances are private there is no way to know what pressures Crane was under at the time.

Because no teams do that.  Plenty of teams do both.  This is such a fallacy and a way to talk yourself into losing for 4-5 years being some brilliant plan.

Also, those things cost no money.  You have a cap on the draft and intl FA..the scouting and development stuff isn’t that much money.  Those involved in those areas aren’t making huge amounts of money.  
 

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

The Astros are being sued by their former owner for tanking - Beyond the Box Score

Interesting article on tanking that is a bit old, but specifically relates to the Astros and the owner's issues - including suing the prior owner - who counter-sued.  

Nice article.   Astros owner Crane says he was mislead on the TV contract by the former owner and therefore didn't have money the thought he would have in 2012-2013.   Thus the lawsuit.   That was his reason for tanking.  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Committing to a rebuild through tanking is multi-layered - in my opinion.

 - it means putting out a weaker team to generate losses to draft higher. 

 - Often, those weaker teams include overpriced and mediocre performance on veteran contracts that can be difficult to move.

 - It also means not investing in better free agents because the incremental wins are not worth the cost.  The free agent investments that are made can be for lower $ veterans to provide some semblance of decency to a major league team or reclamation projects for previously injured players who are coming back.  The main goal of this spend is often to move the signed free agent to another team if that player performs.

 - generally hoarding a team's prospects and giving them a legit chance to perform as a major leaguer if there careers make it so far.  This is an important step IMO and speaks Elias biggest mistake in letting Yastremski go for peanuts.  Really no excuse for a rebuilding team to deal away its prospects.

 - cutting payroll so that a team can buy free agents at the right point in the competitive cycle when a team is on the upswing.

 - imo, this is also a period of time when an owner is likely to make nice profits due to the low payroll.

As this relates to the Astros, I am surprised to see the word luck bandied about simply because a few draft picks didn't pan out.  I don't think there was much luck at all in how the Astros conducted their business and became an elite team for multiple years.  

As it relates to the Orioles, we are currently in the latter stages of a rebuild, but we have been hampered by some legacy contracts with Cobb and Davis costing over $35M in Year 3 or 4 (depending on your viewpoint) that have prevented additional investments in free agents or lowered owner profits.

And outside of the higher pick and the immediate dumping of salaries, you can do all of this whether you win 100 games or lose 100 games and you certainly don’t need to do it for 4-5 years.

And really, you can dump the contracts and trade vets as well although it’s harder to sell to the team and fan base when you do that if you are a contender.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because no teams do that.  Plenty of teams do both.  This is such a fallacy and a way to talk yourself into losing for 4-5 years being some brilliant plan.

Also, those things cost no money.  You have a cap on the draft and intl FA..the scouting and development stuff isn’t that much money.  Those involved in those areas aren’t making huge amounts of money.  
 

And to piggyback off of this..every team spends at the draft.  Most, if not every team, spends on Intl FA. Everyone has scouts, player development, etc...

It has nothing to do with rebuilding.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And to piggyback off of this..every team spends at the draft.  Most, if not every team, spends on Intl FA. Everyone has scouts, player development, etc...

It has nothing to do with rebuilding.

I think you are unrealistic about the position Elias started in.   He inherited a 47-win team that didn’t intend to tank, that had traded most of its best players before Elias got there, that had a below average farm system and virtually no international pipeline.    You just can’t get from there to a winning team that quickly.     I don’t really care what other teams do because most other teams never got themselves into a hole as deep as the 2018 Orioles did.   You don’t build a bridge when you are 20 feet underground.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think you are unrealistic about the position Elias started in.   He inherited a 47-win team that didn’t intend to tank, that had traded most of its best players before Elias got there, that had a below average farm system and virtually no international pipeline.    You just can’t get from there to a winning team that quickly.     I don’t really care what other teams do because most other teams never got themselves into a hole as deep as the 2018 Orioles did.   You don’t build a bridge when you are 20 feet underground.   

As I have said, I’m fine with him tanking for a few years.  In that time, he traded away what he could, lowered the payroll for the short and long term and added to the system.  I wanted that.  I’m glad he did it.  I was perfectly fine watching a terrible product for a few years.  I called for the team to do that 12-15 years ago and everyone on here said they were rebuilding.  Now you all see what rebuilding actually is, which is not what the Os did in the 2000s.  

He doesn’t need to do that anymore though.

He can go out and win 80 games this year and still do everything people are asking him to do..the only difference is that in 2022, the draft pick will be in the 11-16 range instead of top 5.  That is literally the only difference outside of your draft pool and most of that pool is the difference in where you pick in the first round anyway.

Nothing else you guys talk about requires the team losing 95+ games.  That’s my issue.  The way everyone is accepting a crap product when it’s not needed.  If you have faith in Elias as a scout, developer, etc..you should have faith that he can draft outside of the top 10 and still get quality guys.  Anyone can pick a top 3 talent.  That’s not hard.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think you are unrealistic about the position Elias started in.   He inherited a 47-win team that didn’t intend to tank, that had traded most of its best players before Elias got there, that had a below average farm system and virtually no international pipeline.    You just can’t get from there to a winning team that quickly.     I don’t really care what other teams do because most other teams never got themselves into a hole as deep as the 2018 Orioles did.   You don’t build a bridge when you are 20 feet underground.   

I think that two seasons of tanking after the initial disastrous season should have been plenty and that folks should be being promoted to see what they can do at the ML level.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that two seasons of tanking after the initial disastrous season should have been plenty and that folks should be being promoted to see what they can do at the ML level.

I'm content for Adley, Grayson, Baumann, Yusniel and Hall to be Eastern/International League Player of the Week like once apiece, but I don't need to see a ton of those guys outplaying high minors others to want the MLB reps.

Like, you know who else could benefit from improving their spin efficiency and swing decisions?  Jorge Lopez could.   I'm guessing Bruce Zimmermann, Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins aren't perfect.

[Roll Tide]

I don’t know what the Angelos’ are up to and quite frankly don’t trust them.

 

With that said I don’t see the team moving, all they need to do to keep the team in the area is sell the Orioles and MASN together. Nobody in their right mind would buy MASN if they plan on moving the team.

 

Im find with the rebuild ....I’m just not buying that the Orioles are so poor that they can’t afford anything but AAAA players and bottom of the barrel MLB players. I’m not suggest we break the bank on a free agent now and I hope we never give out a Davis type contract as they kill a middle market team if something happens to the player. 
 

I would like to see them take chances on guys like Ha Seong Kim.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t know what the Angelos’ are up to and quite frankly don’t trust them.

 

With that said I don’t see the team moving, all they need to do to keep the team in the area is sell the Orioles and MASN together. Nobody in their right mind would buy MASN if they plan on moving the team.

 

Im find with the rebuild ....I’m just not buying that the Orioles are so poor that they can’t afford anything but AAAA players and bottom of the barrel MLB players. I’m not suggest we break the bank on a free agent now and I hope we never give out a Davis type contract as they kill a middle market team if something happens to the player. 
 

I would like to see them take chances on guys like Ha Seong Kim.

If you were Kim and you had an offer from the Padres and the O's how much more money would the O's have to offer you?