2021 BA Orioles Top 30 Prospects

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law ranks the Orioles farm system 18th(!), He had them as dead last coming into 2019 and 24 going into 2020, so they are moving in the right direction but Law is not a person who changes his priors easily.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Update:

BA released their farm system rankings today. Good news is the Orioles are #7 which is noted as the highest ranking the O's have had in BA's 30 years of coverage. Bad news is Tampa is #1, Toronto is #3 and two other AL teams (Detroit and Seattle) round out the top 4. The difference between the Orioles and most of these teams above them is of course international signings. However, it's also noted that with our recent international signings and the teams above us trading prospects from surplus to improve the ML team, the O's should keep climbing the ranks. The O's strength right now is depth throughout the system as opposed to the top heavy systems of Seattle and Detroit. Given the circumstances, I would be shocked if the O's don't jump Atlanta and San Diego by mid/end of season landing themselves in the top 5. 

This really is worthy of its own thread.    You should post it on the main board since others will be interested.  

I’m surprised to see Toronto that high.   They have some good talent at the top, but aren’t that deep.   Fangraphs is in the middle of looking at the various systems and said: “This system will probably end up near the very bottom of the farm rankings.”   I don’t know about that, but i wouldn’t see them at no. 3, either.   

In any event, we can’t worry too much about who is ranked ahead of us.  We just need to keep making steady progress and build a system that can sustain itself even when we aren’t drafting in the top 5.    
 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law ranks the Orioles farm system 18th(!), He had them as dead last coming into 2019 and 24 going into 2020, so they are moving in the right direction but Law is not a person who changes his priors easily.

Wow, he really does hate us, doesn’t he?  

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This really is worthy of its own thread.    You should post it on the main board since others will be interested.  

I’m surprised to see Toronto that high.   They have some good talent at the top, but aren’t that deep.   Fangraphs is in the middle of looking at the various systems and said: “This system will probably end up near the very bottom of the farm rankings.”   I don’t know about that, but i wouldn’t see them at no. 3, either.   

In any event, we can’t worry too much about who is ranked ahead of us.  We just need to keep making steady progress and build a system that can sustain itself even when we aren’t drafting in the top 5.    
 

Yeah, I was about to post the same thing about Toronto. Their top 7-8 maybe edges us out, but I prefer our top 20.

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law ranks the Orioles farm system 18th(!), He had them as dead last coming into 2019 and 24 going into 2020, so they are moving in the right direction but Law is not a person who changes his priors easily.

Laughably bad honestly. I don't see how it's at all defensible to have the Reds ranked above the Orioles even if it's just one spot. He seems like he's phoned it in recently. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

I don't see how it's at all defensible to have the Reds ranked above the Orioles even if it's just one spot.

I don't get it either. Remove Adley from our system, and I would still prefer our guys. With Adley it isn't even close.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Tony-OH]

On 2/7/2021 at 6:27 PM, Frobby said:

I should note that Tony originally didn’t list Harvey because he mistakenly thought Harvey had lost rookie status.   When someone (I think it was me) pointed out that Harvey was still eligible, Tony decided not to amend the list, just because he was close enough to losing rookie status and because he’s already been on the list seven times.   So, his absence from Tony’s list doesn’t necessarily reflect that he wouldn’t belong based on Tony’s evaluation of his talent. 

I'm still not sure I was wrong. I checked with Mike and he doesn't think he is still a rookie, but wasn't 100% sure. If he still has rookie status, it's by technicality. 

 

 

On 2/9/2021 at 8:07 AM, Flash- bd said:

Where would you guys put Jahmai Jones on the top 30? @Tony-OH and others?

My first look would have him at #19.

[luismatos4prez]

Keith Law thinks very highly of Jahmai Jones. Put him as the Orioles' #9 prospect in his list today with positive comments about his bat and work ethic. When asked if the Orioles won the trade, he responded "Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he'll thrive there."

[Sports Guy]

 

[MurphDogg]

21 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Keith Law thinks very highly of Jahmai Jones. Put him as the Orioles' #9 prospect in his list today with positive comments about his bat and work ethic. When asked if the Orioles won the trade, he responded "Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he'll thrive there."

Link to that article.

Law's top 20 list with BA's numbers in parentheses.

1. Adley Rutschman (1)
2. D.L. Hall (3)
3. Grayson Rodriguez (2)
4. Heston Kjerstad (4)
5. Ryan Mountcastle (5)
6. Adam Hall (15)
7. Gunnar Henderson (6)
8. Michael Baumann (8) 
9. Jahmai Jones (16)
10. Dean Kremer (9)
11. Yusniel Diaz (7)
12. Zac Lowther (18)
13. Keegan Akin (10)
14. Kevin Smith (17) 
15.Jordan Westburg (11)
16. Terrin Vavra (22)
17. Tyler Nevin (29)
18. Hudson Haskin (20)
19. Ryan McKenna (23)
20. Kyle Bradish (12)

Wells, Mayo, Matson, Baumler and Bannon listed as others of note.

He is higher than everyone else I have read on Adam Hall, listing him as the organizational sleeper going into last year, noting:

Before the pandemic, at least, he was a 70 runner with improving plate discipline and the arm and actions to be an average shortstop or above-average-to-plus second baseman.

Odd that Zimmermann is completely unmentioned, considering he has a 2021 impact section of the article and Zimmermann will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training.

[Tony-OH]

On 2/12/2021 at 12:36 PM, MurphDogg said:

Link to that article.

Law's top 20 list with BA's numbers in parentheses.

1. Adley Rutschman (1)
2. D.L. Hall (3)
3. Grayson Rodriguez (2)
4. Heston Kjerstad (4)
5. Ryan Mountcastle (5)
6. Adam Hall (15)
7. Gunnar Henderson (6)
8. Michael Baumann (8) 
9. Jahmai Jones (16)
10. Dean Kremer (9)
11. Yusniel Diaz (7)
12. Zac Lowther (18)
13. Keegan Akin (10)
14. Kevin Smith (17) 
15.Jordan Westburg (11)
16. Terrin Vavra (22)
17. Tyler Nevin (29)
18. Hudson Haskin (20)
19. Ryan McKenna (23)
20. Kyle Bradish (12)

Wells, Mayo, Matson, Baumler and Bannon listed as others of note.

He is higher than everyone else I have read on Adam Hall, listing him as the organizational sleeper going into last year, noting:

Odd that Zimmermann is completely unmentioned, considering he has a 2021 impact section of the article and Zimmermann will be competing for a rotation spot in spring training.

I like when Frobby does these comparisons because he respects our rankings and puts the OH rankings in there as the comparisons.

 

[MurphDogg]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I like when Frobby does these comparisons because he respects our rankings and puts the OH rankings in there as the comparisons.

If that reply had been in the OH rankings thread, I would have done so. Or if I had thought highly enough of Law's rankings to start a new thread. The OH rankings are already in this thread. Looking forward to your preseason update adding Jones and Stallings (and Harvey?). Nothing I like more than a big beautiful spreadsheet full of rankings.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Absltgreek]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

It’s a reasonable assumption Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall and Heston Kjerstad, all current Top 100 Prospects, will not graduate this year, which gives the Orioles a very strong base of prospects for a 2022 farm system ranking. Baltimore will pick fifth in the 2021 draft, which gives them a potential addition Top 100 Prospect. And then there’s the chance for young prospects like SS Gunnar Henderson to develop.