Fangraphs gives Os 0.0% of making playoffs

[GuidoSarducci]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say it’s the Vegas odds that are more ridiculous.   But of course they set the odds at a different place that leaves them a significant profit margin.   

Look at the '89 Orioles ... didn't technically make the playoffs (though they would under current format), and outside of Cal, Orsulak and Boddicker the team was a bunch of castoffs, stopgaps and rookies (or close to it).   I'd say on paper the '21 relative talent level is probably even better than '89.

Edited February 18, 2021 by GuidoSarducci

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Look at the '89 Orioles ... didn't technically make the playoffs (though they would under current format), and outside of Cal, Orsulak and Boddicker the team was a bunch of castoffs, stopgaps and rookies (or close to it).   I'd say on paper the '21 relative talent level is probably even better than '89.

Obviously I don’t think the Orioles’ playoff chances are literally zero.   But I’d put them well below 1%.

Vegas makes its money by giving people worse odds than the actual probability of that outcome, and keeping the spread.   If you add up the Vegas odds of each team in terms of a percentage probability (in other words, 80-1 becomes 1.25%), it adds up to teams having a 146% chance of winning the World Series.    So if you want to estimate what Vegas really thinks, take the odds and reduce them by about 30%.     That puts the Orioles’ odds at about 0.86%.   In Fangraphs terms, call it 0.9%.    

The interesting thing to me is that Vegas thinks there are four teams with worse odds than ours and another 5 teams on our level.   That’s a pretty optimistic take.  

 

[scOtt]

BFD! I'm the biggest homer on this board and I give them about ZERO chance too!

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Its a bit ridiculous considering their odds to win the WS are 80-to-one.  

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Which actually puts the O's in only the second to last 'rung' which is shared by the Tigers, Mariners, Marlins and Giants, and actually better than the Royals, Pirates, D-backs and Rangers. 

There's no way they would stake a bet for 2500-to-one.  Bet $10 and win $25,000.  No bookie is going to take that on the off chance they actually have to pay out.

In 2015 I think there were real casinos giving 5000-1 odds on Leicester City winning the English Premier League.  And they won. 

[GuidoSarducci]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 2015 I think there were real casinos giving 5000-1 odds on Leicester City winning the English Premier League.  And they won. 

Touche ... I remeber that but didnt think the odds were that low.

But i doubt theyll be making that mistake again anytime soon

https://www.businessinsider.com/leicester-city-odds-were-a-sham-2016-5

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by GuidoSarducci

[Frobby]

Baltimore left-hander John Means was asked for his opinion of FanGraphs’ projections giving his team a 0.0% chance of reaching the postseason. The affable Oriole wasn’t offended by the question, but he did push back a little.

“The last two years we’ve been projected to finish last place, and we haven’t,” Means told assorted members of the media. “I think we’ve outplayed projections every year I’ve been up here, and the plan is to outplay the projections again. I think we have a better chance than 0.0, for sure. We try to not listen to the noise too much.”

The Orioles are projected to go 63-99 this year, and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see them do better than that. As for their chances of actually making the playoffs… let’s just say that’s almost certainly not going to happen, regardless of numerical percentages, or any noise that happens to surround it.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-derek-sheltons-pirates-arent-the-1980s-cardinals/

[Can_of_corn]

Woo Hoo!

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Woo Hoo!

 

And that’s without today’s result