TT: Rotation "horserace" becomes clearer

[Sports Guy]

Just now, eddie83 said:

I would rather in a lost season give him an honest look and then move on from him if it doesn’t work. Not saying I think he will pan out.  

I don’t really see the reasoning behind that while also saying to send Akin down.  The logic just isn’t there for me on that one.

If Lopez has a ML Future, it will very likely be in the bullpen.  

[MurphDogg]

33 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I would be shocked if anyone other than Means makes more than 25 starts on this team. Put odds at around 15%.  

Sure on contenders with high end talent.  

What does that have to do with anything?

The 47-115 2018 Orioles had 3 starters that made at least 28 starts. The 75-87 2017 Orioles had 3 starters that made at least 28 starts.

As best as I can tell 2019 was the first non-strike year in Orioles history that they didn't have 2 starters make at least 28 starts, and even that team had two starters make 27 starts. It is pretty difficult to play 162 games and not have two starters make more than 25 starts.

[Just Regular]

I just have a feeling every 23-27 year old starter who doesn't have a couple full seasons under the belt, is any good, and is not in a playoff race is suddenly going to be Stephen Strasburg returning from TJ having his season ended circa Labor Day 2012.

Luckily our 6-10 is more fun than our 1-5 so from both a baseball and entertainment perspective I think this is a feature not a bug for the 2021 Orioles.

[Number5]

58 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I would be shocked if anyone other than Means makes more than 25 starts on this team. Put odds at around 15%.

Including the post-season?  

[eddie83]

22 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

What does that have to do with anything?

The 47-115 2018 Orioles had 3 starters that made at least 28 starts. The 75-87 2017 Orioles had 3 starters that made at least 28 starts.

As best as I can tell 2019 was the first non-strike year in Orioles history that they didn't have 2 starters make at least 28 starts, and even that team had two starters make 27 starts. It is pretty difficult to play 162 games and not have two starters make more than 25 starts.

The 3 starters on the 18 team were all veterans. This team has one proven vet in Means.  
 

Akin didn’t average 5 innings at AAA 2 years ago and now coming off of last year he is going to make 28 plus starts? Kremer threw 113 innings 2 years ago. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

The 3 starters on the 18 team were all veterans. This team has one proven vet in Means.  
 

Akin didn’t average 5 innings at AAA 2 years ago and now coming off of last year he is going to make 28 plus starts? Kremer threw 113 innings 2 years ago. 

Twenty eight four innings starts is still 28 starts. 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Twenty eight four innings starts is still 28 starts. 

Well maybe they take the path you would like. 9 man pen. 

Some team has to be first. 

[eddie83]

14 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Including the post-season?  

MLB is having a NIT type tourney for teams who don’t qualify for regular postseason. Top 20 non playoff teams will be selected. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Well maybe they take the path you would like. 9 man pen. 

Some team has to be first. 

I'm not used to the O's being first, not sure how I'd react.

[eddie83]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not used to the O's being first, not sure how I'd react.

Unfortunately in the last 37 years nobody is used to them being 1st in much of anything. 

 

[ScGO's]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, after ten years of pitching professionally he probably needs to polish his craft.

I thought he was relatively new to the knuckle ball though

[Will Mc]

18 hours ago, LTO's said:

That's sort of irrelevant when you're talking about the 5/6 spot in the rotation of a horrible team in a year where teams are going to have to use more pitchers than normal. He's certainly projected to be better than Wade Leblanc and Matt Harvey.

He is the healthiest pitcher you have and can eat more innings than anyone and you are gonna need it. The guy can start or relieve. He can pitch every day. It’s not like you have these Cy Young candidates sitting around. It’s gonna be a rough year for the O’s. Go to Sarasota. Look for yourself. The guy came in with the bases loaded. Got out of the inning. The other two starts were great. The catchers had never experienced him before. It takes some getting used to. The ball is moving all over the place. He also sports a plus slider and can hit 90 with his fast ball. Very versatile. Harvey threw one pitch. Mickey comes in with no warm up / stretching in the pen and took care of business. Got out of the inning. Yes, big league hitters. 

[LTO's]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-lopez/14527/stats?position=P
 

Those projections look awesome!

 

What exactly is the point you're trying to make? That he's not good? Obviously...... Did you look up LeBlanc's and Harvey's? Lopez's projections are right in line with what one should expect for a 5th or 6th starter on a 100 loss team. He's also the youngest and the healthiest and can start or come in from the pen. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, LTO's said:

What exactly is the point you're trying to make? That he's not good? Obviously...... Did you look up LeBlanc's and Harvey's? Lopez's projections are right in line with what one should expect for a 5th or 6th starter on a 100 loss team. He's also the youngest and the healthiest and can start or come in from the pen. 

My point is, as I have already stated, is that projections (you know, the things YOU said you were leaning on) show him to not be good and even if they are projecting him to be better than Harvey or LeBlanc, a polished turd is still a turd.  A 5 ERA vs a 5.5 ERA is very little difference, especially in a small sample size of 10-20 starts.

And those projections, especially for Harvey, may not matter if he has rediscovered his stuff, or at least some semblance of what it used to be.  Those projections are based off of recent data, so the most recent data for Harvey isn’t going to show well but that may not matter. 
 

Lopez isn’t good.  He career stats aren’t good.  Even his minor league stats were extremely underwhelming.

Sure, like all failed starters, he could have some kind of a renaissance in the pen and he stuff really plays up.  That’s always a possibility but he shouldn’t even be remotely considered for a rotation spot.

I would also be fine with that statement said about Harvey or LeBlanc too but Harvey does potentially provide some upside and for a team going nowhere, it’s worth a chance.

 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My point is, as I have already stated, is that projections (you know, the things YOU said you were leaning on) show him to not be good and even if they are projecting him to be better than Harvey or LeBlanc, a polished turd is still a turd.  A 5 ERA vs a 5.5 ERA is very little difference, especially in a small sample size of 10-20 starts.

Sure but my point is that even if Lopez and Harvey have around the same upside in terms of production, I'm banking on the younger/healthier guy to be more reliable for a full 162 games. That's even more valuable this year and I think we can agree there.  I personally would like both Harvey and Lopez to make the team and have the O's get creative in how they work their rotation. That includes Zimmermann being a factor as well. If Harvey holds velocity over his next few starts and doesn't get lit up, I think he's in the rotation. I just expect Lopez to play a huge part as well.