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2022 early look top prospects


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On 4/17/2022 at 7:26 AM, Sports Guy said:

You don’t pass on Jones for any reason.  You draft him, you pay him and you let his immense talent take over.  You don’t worry about getting someone who slipped in the 6th round.

The Orioles have a ton of draft pool money and have 5 of the top 75 picks.  Go big those 5 picks and draft relievers the rest of the draft for all I care but go for as much high level talent as possible.

I think that has to be the play in a year when it’s clear who the 1-1 BPA is.   I’m assuming that will still be true in July when the draft rolls around, though sometimes things change.   The O’s are kind of in a position to have their cake and eat it too due to the extra pick (and spending allotment) they got in the Scott/Sulser trade.    They can pay for the BPA and still have some extra cash to spread around.    

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On 4/17/2022 at 7:26 AM, Sports Guy said:

You don’t pass on Jones for any reason.  You draft him, you pay him and you let his immense talent take over.  You don’t worry about getting someone who slipped in the 6th round.

The Orioles have a ton of draft pool money and have 5 of the top 75 picks.  Go big those 5 picks and draft relievers the rest of the draft for all I care but go for as much high level talent as possible.

You may be right but if I look at the way Elias has drafted I'm going to go with what he does over what you suggest.  Who knows, maybe he agrees with you.

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The point of the post is pretty clear unless you choose to take everything as a personal insult. 

 

Based on the information that gets back to us fans it seems clear that Jones has to be the guy. I'm not really convinced that the secondary candidates like Lee, Johnson, or Green are close to being interchangeable like Rutschman or Witt where at the time. I'm not well versed enough in the depth of the high school class, but based on Elias' last few years he should still have the capital to snag a few guys in the Westburg/Stowers/Norby mold after 1-1. It'll be interesting to see how guys like Jud Fabian, Peyton Graham, Zach Neto, Brock Jones, and Cayden Wallace trend as we get closer to July because a number of those guys seem likely to fall in the 25-40 range.

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s my opinion that this is exactly what they have to do.  You get that high end, HOF caliber talent.

Why the f*** do you care that I feel this way?  

A normal person's opinion would be something like "I really don't know that much but I'd like to see them draft this way".   Your opinion is "They have to do it my way or they're just stupid!".

High end can mean lots of things but high end, most of the time, comes with more risk.   Just like Elijah Green might have higher upside than Andruw Jones but you are suggesting we take Jones.   So, when you say you want to see them for for upside in the first 5 rounds you really don't know what you are talking about because what you really want is high upside with a good probability of hitting that upside.   Those guys aren't there in rounds 2-5.   Those guys are 1st rounders.     If you look at the players Elias has drafted, many are athletic with good upsides and decent probability.   You have a problem with what's been working?

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11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A normal person's opinion would be something like "I really don't know that much but I'd like to see them draft this way".   Your opinion is "They have to do it my way or they're just stupid!".

High end can mean lots of things but high end, most of the time, comes with more risk.   Just like Elijah Green might have higher upside than Andruw Jones but you are suggesting we take Jones.   So, when you say you want to see them for for upside in the first 5 rounds you really don't know what you are talking about because what you really want is high upside with a good probability of hitting that upside.   Those guys aren't there in rounds 2-5.   Those guys are 1st rounders.     If you look at the players Elias has drafted, many are athletic with good upsides and decent probability.   You have a problem with what's been working?

First of all, I trust the opinions of everyone discussing this and it seems to be a consensus on Jones.  Based off of that, I’m good with what I said and if you want to bitch about it, that’s a you problem.

I havent really said anything negative about Elias’ draft picks except that I would have gone a different way with the last 3 first rounders and so far, my picks look better but it’s early. I also would have liked to have seen them go higher upside after Cowser last year and the idea that they really didn’t go overslot before Willems bothered me,  considering that’s  a reason you took Cowser to begin with.  Those are disagreements though and I’m not necessarily bashing him for it.  

That said, I was also good with Cowser and Kjerstad, much moreso than most Os fans.  I didn’t want Martin and I prefer the bats over the pitchers as an overall approach.

But overall, Elias is doing a good job drafting and seeing as I have pointed out that I think he’s the best thing to happen to the team in 25+ years, my agreeing with what he’s doing is pretty obvious.

You are just trying to create a narrative that doesn’t exist.

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22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

"You don't pass on Jones for ANY reason" is just a stupid thing to say and you are just about the only one who doesn't realize that.

I mean, if it comes out that he abuses women or has some major injury that is tough to recover from, that’s fine.  But any reason means based on everything we know about the kid.  It’s not based on crazy what if, fantasy land scenarios.

I’m reading articles where people in the game are saying you can’t pass on this kid and this type of talent, so I think it’s fair to say plenty of people would agree with me.

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Maybe Elias takes Jones because he feels he's clearly the best player. If he doesn't I'm going to assume a lot of thought, research, and good baseball reasoning went into it and respect the decision.  Wouldn't that be the wise thing to do?

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe Elias takes Jones because he feels he's clearly the best player. If he doesn't I'm going to assume a lot of thought, research, and good baseball reasoning went into it and respect the decision.  Wouldn't that be the wise thing to do?

Not if he is that much better than the next guy, which by all indications, he is.

There is plenty of money available to spend, with more added with the comp pick they just got.  
 

Crazy off field things aside (which again, don’t really need to be mentioned at this time), you take the guy who is the clear best talent.  You can easily still go over slot and bring in high level talent by bring in Jones and even if you couldn’t, you still take the elite talent. If you had 3 options that were all basically the same but one could be signed for 1M less, sure go that route.  That’s why I didn’t mind Kjerstad or Cowser.  
 

But again, that doesn’t seem to be the case here.  In fact, you have people calling him the best prospect since Harper and a no brainer first pick.

If the Orioles don’t draft him And everything remains the same, they will get criticized for it and rightfully so.  If you want to stroke Elias and believe that every decision he makes is right, go ahead.  That’s your opinion and you are fine to have it.  

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I don't believe Elias is infallible.  I just don't have a lot of confidence in your expertise based on the articles you've read.  There are people here, not me, who know twice as much as you about the draft, yet who aren't as strong in their convictions as you.  You believe the loudest guy is right. Same old SG.

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39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, if it comes out that he abuses women or has some major injury that is tough to recover from, that’s fine.  But any reason means based on everything we know about the kid.  It’s not based on crazy what if, fantasy land scenarios.

I’m reading articles where people in the game are saying you can’t pass on this kid and this type of talent, so I think it’s fair to say plenty of people would agree with me.

I agree with you. 

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