2022 early look top prospects

[Paul in Virginia]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

I'd still prefer Jones but if Elias wants to go with a college player, the decision between Lee and Parada could be interesting, especially if Lee is not seen as a SS and Parada can stick at catcher.

 

Going catcher at 1.1 would also give us the flexibility of later trading Adley, largely assuaging our concerns over Adley's "late" start. By this I mean in 2 or 3 years our ML club would benefit more from then trading Adley than it would have from a 20-21 year-old Druw Jones in the minors.  This would also ease our lament over taking so long to get Adley to the majors. 

[Paul in Virginia]

MLB Draft MailBag - 5/5/2022 — Prospects Live

 

"Comparing the super star catcher (Parada) against his high school star counter parts (Jones, Johnson, etc) What makes him different than years with Adley, Bart, or even Davis last year? He’s the best hitter of the those 4, so why is there no 1:1 talk for him?"

Great question, Cameron. I think there’s a pretty big difference between Parada and the three you mentioned.

For starters, I’d agree, it’s an impressive bat. There’s hard to find any warts here. The strikeout rate is healthy, the exit velocities are gaudy, and there isn’t a single pitch or zone he’s struggled to handle at Georgia Tech. I would put Parada’s bat on par with any of the three you mentioned. And let the record show, I do think there’s some 1.1 potential here.

But let’s talk about the differences. Adley Rutschman and Henry Davis were both considered talented defensive backstops as well. Bart too, to a lesser degree. All three were considered better bets to stick behind the plate than is Parada. The issues with Parada surround his arm strength and struggles to control the running game. Over the last two seasons, Parada has thrown out just 14 of the 85 base-stealers that have tested his arm. That’s actually improved quite a bit in 2022 having thrown out 7 of the 33 threats. That’s a shade over 20 percent this season and roughly 16 percent for his collegiate career. For comparison, big league catchers throw out about 30 percent of their runners and most would agree the guys stealing bases at the highest level are better, more advanced runners. That will obviously need to improve with scouts pointing to mechanics and pure arm strength as areas needing addressed.

For now, Parada projects a fringy defensive catcher who may eventually need to move to first base or a corner outfield role to get the most out of his value. Maybe he ends up an Andrew Vaughn type of player. But the risk of him having to move out of the middle of the field weighs on his draft stock.

 

[calsmanystances]

Law Top 100 Big Board

https://theathletic.com/3291481/2022/05/05/mlb-draft-prospects-ranking-druw-jones/

There’s a clear No. 1 prospect in this class, followed by the next six hitters, with no pitchers in the top 10, something I expect to see mirrored in the actual selections when the draft takes place. I’d put another line after the 21st player, separating the definite first-round talents from the maybes.

1. Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan School (Suwanee, Ga.)

Andruw Jones’ son is the consensus No. 1 player in the draft class, rising to the top as much because of the high floor he offers for a high school player as his ceiling. He’s a plus defender in center now, with similar feel for the position to his father, gliding to catch fly balls thanks to strong reads off the bat. He is a plus runner with at least 60 raw power, with strength to drive the ball out to center, but his swing can get long and he can try too hard to get to that power on pitches he should just put into play. He does have a solid feel for the strike zone for his age, however, and doesn’t expand the zone on himself when he falls behind. He has All-Star upside and it’s easy to see how he could settle in as a soft regular even if we’re all too high on the hit tool.

2. Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College

Collier finished high school early to go to two-year Chipola, probably the best junior college baseball program in the country. As a 17-year-old, he hit .333/.431/.525 despite facing pitchers who were mostly two-to-four years older. He has a plus-plus arm and the athleticism to stay at third base, although ultimately it’s his feel to hit that makes him a top-five talent in this draft. Look for teams that weigh age heavily in their draft models to target him in July.

3. Termarr Johnson, SS, Mays High (Atlanta)

Owner of the best pure hit tool in the draft class, Johnson has outstanding feel for the game and, despite a brief hitch at the beginning of his swing, has shown he can hit all kinds of pitching and spray the field with hard line drives. He also brings elite makeup, often acting as an additional coach on his high school team. He’ll move to second base in pro ball, and probably ends up more of a hitter for high averages but with 50 power.

4. Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy

For pure tools and upside, Green is probably the top pick among the high school crop, but lacks the present skills of Jones or the hit tool of Johnson. Green is 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, and still has room to fill out, with plus power now and plus-plus speed, with a 30-30 centerfield upside. He has shown a lot more swing and miss than his peers atop the draft board, but playing for IMG Academy this spring he has also faced better competition than any other high school hitter.

[Sports Guy]

That note about Green’s competition is an interesting one.

I wonder how much a team weighs that for a HS kid?

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That note about Green’s competition is an interesting one.

I wonder how much a team weighs that for a HS kid?

Did you notice the comment about pure upside?

[oldfan]

This is the year to fill out the system with talent, I think we have 5 picks in first 81. First pick will be a position player, after that I hope we can get best player available at time of pick. If two players are equal, I hope can get a couple of power arms, the way the game is going you need them. Watch a little of Shane McClanahan for Rays against Seattle tonight, gave up a homer to Winker in 5th, but pretty much dominated. Only went 5.1, throwing 99-100 mostly, seen stat that he's given up 3 or less runs in 27 of 30 starts. Can never have enough pitching.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Did you notice the comment about pure upside?

Yep..I noticed that he said “probably”.

I also noticed that he said there is a “clear #1 prospect” and I noticed that he has Lee ranked 5th.  I also noticed that he said he lacks the “present skills of Jones”.

I don’t want Green at 1 because of the volatility but he is the other guy you take if you don’t go Jones because he has that tremendous upside.  
 

Elias clearly values power too and Green has more power upside than Jones.  

I would rather miss on this pick than hit a double.  

[foxfield]

I wonder if the Orioles with so many picks up top swing for the fences by taking several of the injured pitchers after #1?  And after reading Law's piece yesterday, I think there are several ways the O's could go for #1.  Though my worthless 2 cents would still favor Jones or Green.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I wonder if the Orioles with so many picks up top swing for the fences by taking several of the injured pitchers after #1?  And after reading Law's piece yesterday, I think there are several ways the O's could go for #1.  Though my worthless 2 cents would still favor Jones or Green.

I don't see the Orioles drafting any injured pitchers.

 

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see the Orioles drafting any injured pitchers.

 

I know, I really don't either. But several of these guys, would be high first rounders if healthy.  It would, on paper at least seem like a chance to steal some talent.  

On the other hand, Kumar Rocker was projected to go early last year, did not not sign and is still falling this year.  Law's article doesnt say so but in his chat yeaterday, he said he doesnt know if Rocker gets taken and that while he will throw soon he still hasn't so far.  

Said Law:  He's never getting back to what he was, say, freshman year, though - I am not sure he's ever really been the same after the 2019 no-hitter. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..I noticed that he said “probably”.

I also noticed that he said there is a “clear #1 prospect” and I noticed that he has Lee ranked 5th.  I also noticed that he said he lacks the “present skills of Jones”.

I don’t want Green at 1 because of the volatility but he is the other guy you take if you don’t go Jones because he has that tremendous upside.  
 

Elias clearly values power too and Green has more power upside than Jones.  

I would rather miss on this pick than hit a double.  

You originally challenged the fact that anyone had recently said Green had the highest ceiling in the draft.  Baseball America used the phrasing "could have the highest ceiling", Jim Callis on MLB came right out and said Green has the highest ceiling.  And now Keith Law days Green probability has the highest ceiling.  Case closed.

I never disputed that Jones is the consensus #1 player on the board.

Law and others have kind of said that the next group of 5 or 6 hitters are grouped together so some have Lee at #2 and some have him lower but all seem to have him in that 2nd group behind Jones.

Even Law kind of hedges his bet with his comments on Jones bat which he doesn't sound entirely confident on.  

I already know your answer to the rhetorical question of whether a pick of Lee or one of the 2nd group of hitters is defensible over taking Jones. My impression from reading all of these draft pundits is that it is defensible. 

I am not lobbying for Lee to be the pick. 

[foxfield]

Also Law in his chat yesterday:

Regarding the overall draft he said:

Honestly? This is one of the worst draft classes in my now 21 drafts in the industry. The college hitting group was always a little underwhelming. The college pitchers have been wiped out by a TJ pandemic. And it's a good HS hitting crop, but not good enough to make up for all of that.

Regarding someone asking about the Orioles.  Someone asked: 

Will the Orioles, with their litany of picks this year, still go someone cheap and under slot at 1? Or will they finally take the best player available?

Law's response:

Don't confuse "cheap" and "bad." Colton Cowser came under slot. He's good, and allowed them to sign a bunch of other interesting college bats afterwards.

 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You originally challenged the fact that anyone had recently said Green had the highest ceiling in the draft.  Baseball America used the phrasing "could have the highest ceiling", Jim Callis on MLB came right out and said Green has the highest ceiling.  And now Keith Law days Green probability has the highest ceiling.  Case closed.

I never disputed that Jones is the consensus #1 player on the board.

Law and others have kind of said that the next group of 5 or 6 hitters are grouped together so some have Lee at #2 and some have him lower but all seem to have him in that 2nd group behind Jones.

Even Law kind of hedges his bet with his comments on Jones bat which he doesn't sound entirely confident on.  

I already know your answer to the rhetorical question of whether a pick of Lee or one of the 2nd group of hitters is defensible over taking Jones. My impression from reading all of these draft pundits is that it is defensible. 

I am not lobbying for Lee to be the pick. 

Well actually I said I hadn’t seen anyone recently say it.  I didn’t say it wasn’t being said, just that I hadn’t seen it and now I have.  

But everyone still says he’s the clear #1 guy and some scouts have said he’s the best prospect since Harper.  So, it just depends on what you want.  

Lee isn’t a defensible pick in this draft for this organization at 1.  I don’t care what people say about him.  This isn’t a time to “play it safe”.

[jabba72]

I'd like to try Jones at SS assuming he is the pick. Whats there to lose? He'll always have the ability to play CF. 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I'd like to try Jones at SS assuming he is the pick. Whats there to lose? He'll always have the ability to play CF. 

Two questions.  Does development at SS take away from the development that he needs in hitting? Assuming he becomes an average defensive SS compared to his father's level in CF, which is more valuable?