2022 early look top prospects

[jabba72]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Two questions.  Does development at SS take away from the development that he needs in hitting? Assuming he becomes an average defensive SS compared to his father's level in CF, which is more valuable?

I guess if his range is GG level in CF that is significant. I just put more value on a star level SS. We wont know how he looks at SS until you try him, but scouting reports saying he has the arm for SS makes me intrigued how well he would play there. 

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t want Green at 1 because of the volatility but he is the other guy you take if you don’t go Jones because he has that tremendous upside.  
 

Elias clearly values power too and Green has more power upside than Jones.  

I would rather miss on this pick than hit a double.  

I agree with you that this is the year to go for the high ceiling.  I think the O's should go with Jones as the highest floor and highest probability of hitting a high ceiling.  There's a case to be made going Green with what seems to be a lower probability of hitting an even higher ceiling though.

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lee isn’t a defensible pick in this draft for this organization at 1.  I don’t care what people say about him.  This isn’t a time to “play it safe”.

But I can actually see a case for drafting an SS since we're still in the hunt for one.  It's just not one I agree with.

6 hours ago, foxfield said:

I know, I really don't either. But several of these guys, would be high first rounders if healthy.  It would, on paper at least seem like a chance to steal some talent.  

I hope/think they take an arm or two in the first 5 picks.  If the college bats are meh and the HS picks are taken, then it makes sense to me if an otherwise first round talent falls.  We've taken an injured arm before with Baumler, so it's not like Elias is philosophically opposed.  Some of those arms going back to college, so they don't have as much leverage to fight the 'under-slot' contract negotiations either.  (Interesting that you bring up Kumar, but his plight is fresh in agent minds.)

[RZNJ]

The most important tool is the hit tool.   Doesn't matter how well you field, run, throw, etc, if you can't hit.  Now, most people seem to think that Jones will hit but almost every report on him seems to say he'll need to make some significant adjustments.  Some mention his swing plane being level and others just make general comments about his swing not being ideal, but almost all say he has a good feel and approach to hitting.  Now, having said that, pretty much everyone says that Brooks Lee has the best hit tool in the draft.   I don't particularly want Lee.  I prefer Jones with everything I've read so far.   But if you project Lee as a 2B-3B who is average to above average defensively, who can hit .300, got on base at .350-.380 and hit you 35 doubles and 20+ homers a year, how much better do you expect Jones to be if he hits his ceiling?   I think what I project for Lee is a reasonable ceiling for him.   What is your reasonable ceiling for Jones?

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I agree with you that this is the year to go for the high ceiling.  I think the O's should go with Jones as the highest floor and highest probability of hitting a high ceiling.  There's a case to be made going Green with what seems to be a lower probability of hitting an even higher ceiling though.

But I can actually see a case for drafting an SS since we're still in the hunt for one.  It's just not one I agree with.

I hope/think they take an arm or two in the first 5 picks.  If the college bats are meh and the HS picks are taken, then it makes sense to me if an otherwise first round talent falls.  We've taken an injured arm before with Baumler, so it's not like Elias is philosophically opposed.  Some of those arms going back to college, so they don't have as much leverage to fight the 'under-slot' contract negotiations either.  (Interesting that you bring up Kumar, but his plight is fresh in agent minds.)

You don’t draft for need in baseball…ever.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t draft for need in baseball…ever.

Not only that but it seems that most don't think Lee has the range for SS.  Position becomes important if the other factors are equal or very, very close.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The most important tool is the hit tool.   Doesn't matter how well you field, run, throw, etc, if you can't hit.  Now, most people seem to think that Jones will hit but almost every report on him seems to say he'll need to make some significant adjustments.  Some mention his swing plane being level and others just make general comments about his swing not being ideal, but almost all say he has a good feel and approach to hitting.  Now, having said that, pretty much everyone says that Brooks Lee has the best hit tool in the draft.   I don't particularly want Lee.  I prefer Jones with everything I've read so far.   But if you project Lee as a 2B-3B who is average to above average defensively, who can hit .300, got on base at .350-.380 and hit you 35 doubles and 20+ homers a year, how much better do you expect Jones to be if he hits his ceiling?   I think what I project for Lee is a reasonable ceiling for him.   What is your reasonable ceiling for Jones?

Luis Roberts with better plate discipline and much better defense/throwing. 

Lee - 65 hit, 55 power, 50 speed - .290/20 HR above average OPS and average SB/OAA at a corner.

Jones - 55 hit, 60 power, 70 speed - .270+/25HR plus OPS (doubles/triples), plus plus steals (depending on management), plus+ OAA up the middle.  ** The piece that I struggle with is how can you project a string bean like Jones who already has great pop?  Feels like a little more muscle and that power number could really be another level.  But I'm just a dude behind a keyboard...

Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t draft for need in baseball…ever.

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Not only that but it seems that most don't think Lee has the range for SS.  Position becomes important if the other factors are equal or very, very close.

Agree with both.  But that wasn't my point.

[RZNJ]

My reasoning for taking Jones would be that I do think he has the higher upside and the Orioles have other picks and have shown previously with Westburg, Rhodes, and some others that they are capable of getting good college players after the 1st round.

 

I still think you can make a case for Lee because of a higher floor.  He excelled in the Cape with a wood bat.  As great as Jones sounds and looks there is always that doubt of how he does when he sees professional pitching on a nightly basis.   There is that doubt with Lee as well but less so.    Is Lee a .280 hitter with 15-20 homer power?   Is he a .300 hitter with 25-30 homer power.    Of course, if turns out to be the latter, it will doesn't matter what Jones becomes.    A .300 hitter with 25-30 homer power at 3B-2B is an all-star.    There is the risk that Lee is a 15-20 homer .280 hitter and Jones becomes a 30/30 type of player with gold glove defense in CF.    We would never hear the end of that!!!!!

[Jammer7]

Jones is a dynamic talent, an elite twitchy athlete and tremendous competitor. More risk, more reward than Lee, sure. Positional value is much greater with Jones. Reminds me of Byron Buxton with a better hit and current power tool. Lee would be a safer pick, but that is not how you win a World Series. You win a World Series with dudes like Jones. Guys that make amazing plays in big moments. Game changers, generational talents, only come along so often. When you have a chance, you take them, IMO. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Jones is a dynamic talent, an elite twitchy athlete and tremendous competitor. More risk, more reward than Lee, sure. Positional value is much greater with Jones. Reminds me of Byron Buxton with a better hit and current power tool. Lee would be a safer pick, but that is not how you win a World Series. You win a World Series with dudes like Jones. Guys that make amazing plays in big moments. Game changers, generational talents, only come along so often. When you have a chance, you take them, IMO. 

The Braves won the WS with their game changing generational talent not playing.

You can get there any number of ways.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Braves won the WS with their game changing generational talent not playing.

You can get there any number of ways.

Agreed.  I understand the idea for taking Jones but I'm sure I can find many teams who didn't have a supreme athlete, HOF caliber player, and still won a championship.

The Royals got to two WS with that bullpen and some good, not great players.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Braves won the WS with their game changing generational talent not playing.

You can get there any number of ways.

Yep…but there’s a margin for error that decreases with elite level talent.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…but there’s a margin for error that decreases with elite level talent.

Obviously, you want elite level talent but Mike Trout proves that elite talent isn't everything and last year they had both he and Ohtani probably the two most elite talents in the game.    Give me a solid player at each position and a decent rotation with an ace, and a strong bullpen.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Braves won the WS with their game changing generational talent not playing.

You can get there any number of ways.

As my aunt would say “stop yourself!”  Clearly it can happen and does happen. But large market teams give huge contracts to the most talented players for a reason.  That’s why we compare contract value to player WAR and how profits are made in the economic margins.  Statistics help decisions for the future.  But they aren’t determinant of what will happen.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Obviously, you want elite level talent but Mike Trout proves that elite talent isn't everything and last year they had both he and Ohtani probably the two most elite talents in the game.    Give me a solid player at each position and a decent rotation with an ace, and a strong bullpen.

Trout shows you need more And a real organization.  Baseball isn’t won because of one player.  It’s won by teams.  However, within any team and within any title contender, normally lies elite talent that wins out.

Elite talent in sports is usually necessary to win.  They make those few plays/pitches that others can’t make to put you over the top.