Kyle Stowers 2021

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think I remember @DrungoHazewoodwaxing poetic about Stanicek a few years ago.  That's quite a season.

In regards to Stowers, I'm very intrigued by his OBP skills and raw power.  I wonder if he could put up Nolan Reimold type rookie numbers next year.  

What do you guys know about his speed?  Is he fast at all?

Hays-ish speed.   

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/16/2021 at 10:36 AM, MurphDogg said:

The game is a lot different from when Gallo was in the minors.

A 30 percent strikeout rate raises an eyebrow, but when it is paired with a 15 percent walk rate, it isn't necessarily a huge problem. If he has a good batting eye, and still gets on base, there is nothing wrong with strikeouts being a part of his game. 

Stowers has hit for a higher average this year than Gallo did in the minors.

If there is a hole in his swing or something that can be attacked by pitchers, that is a separate issue, but that stat line in and of itself isn't scary for me, it is just indicative of the way that many successful hitters approach hitting in the modern game.

As far as a list of players, I can't provide one, but with strikeout and walk rates increasing as they have over the last 5 years, my guess is that soon enough there will be many successful MLB players that had minor league stat lines that look like Stowers' (hopefully including Stowers!).

The game has changed a lot, but I don't think it's changed so much that you shouldn't be concerned about a 32% strikeout rate in the minors. 

This year Stowers is hitting .276, but with his strikeout rate his BABIP is .383, if I've done the math right.  Nobody consistently hits .383 on balls in play.  And he's likely to strike out more often in the majors.

Let's say he strikes out 36% of the time in the majors and has a still excellent .333 BABIP.  That means he'll hit about .235.  If his BABIP is .300 he'll hit .218; Ryan Mountcastle currently has a .302 and is hitting .258 because he's striking out in "only" 27% of PAs.

That's the downside of striking out that much: you have to have an elite hit tool or just a ton of power and plate discipline to still be productive.

[Sports Guy]

As someone who has serious doubts about Stowers, I’m glad to see him finishing strong in AAA.  It won’t really change my thoughts about him because the sample is so small but it does make me re-think what his ML upside is.  

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/16/2021 at 2:57 PM, Frobby said:

There was Pete Stanicek, drafted in 1985.   He was good in the minors but got derailed with injuries as a major leaguer after two partial seasons.  

Edit - Also, Jeff Ballard.  
 

 

On 9/16/2021 at 8:58 PM, jdwilde1 said:

Pete Stanicek had one of the O’s all-time great minor league seasons at Hagerstown in ‘86.  In 127 games he had 115 runs, 77 steals, .317 average, and a .438 OBP.  

Stanicek's '86 Hagerstown team went 91-48, were nine games better than any other Carolina League team that year.  Won the Northern Division by 16.5 games, probably clinched in early August.  But nobody on that team had a particularly good MLB career.  Best was probably Craig Worthington, who had a pretty good rookie season in '89 that he never came close to replicating.  Ballard and Bob Milacki were on the team for part of the year, and that was pretty much it aside from a few bit players and Storm Davis on a rehab start.

Sherwin Cijntje stole 51 bases and Greg Talamantez won 12 games, both had great names, but neither made the majors.

[sportsfan8703]

If the FO were concerned so much with K rates then I don’t think he’d have made a three level jump. Also, power plays up in a homer friendly OPACY. 
 

I think we have ourselves our long term RF to pair with Mullins and Hays. I’d like to see us trade Mancini this offseason. Let Santder DH. Figure out what we have in McKenna/Neustrom in OF, then trade Santander, and bring up Stowers. 
 

Stowers is a game changer for this franchise. 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If the FO were concerned so much with K rates then I don’t think he’d have made a three level jump. 

I’ve heard this term “three level jump” from several posters describing the movement of Stowers, Westburg, and Henderson this year.   To me, if you start the year in Hi A, move to AA and then to AAA, that’s a two-level jump. You’re two levels above where you started, not three.   Same with Low A to Hi A to AA.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve heard this term “three level jump” from several posters describing the movement of Stowers, Westburg, and Henderson this year.   To me, if you start the year in Hi A, move to AA and then to AAA, that’s a two-level jump. You’re two levels above where you started, not three.   Same with Low A to Hi A to AA.

LOL. You're right but I think we all know what they meant. They played at 3 different levels in one year.  I don't think there was any confusion about that.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If the FO were concerned so much with K rates then I don’t think he’d have made a three level jump. Also, power plays up in a homer friendly OPACY. 
 

I think we have ourselves our long term RF to pair with Mullins and Hays. I’d like to see us trade Mancini this offseason. Let Santder DH. Figure out what we have in McKenna/Neustrom in OF, then trade Santander, and bring up Stowers. 
 

Stowers is a game changer for this franchise. 

Wow. I'm not saying that some combination of Mullins, Hays, Stowers and Neustrom can't be a solid/good outfield, but game changer? Mullins would have to replicate this year, Hays would have to replicate this month(ish) and Stowers/Neustrom would have to essentially get close to their ceilings. It's not impossible, but the goal isn't to win 81 games, it's to compete with the Dodgers. We need ballers everywhere.

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve heard this term “three level jump” from several posters describing the movement of Stowers, Westburg, and Henderson this year.   To me, if you start the year in Hi A, move to AA and then to AAA, that’s a two-level jump. You’re two levels above where you started, not three.   Same with Low A to Hi A to AA.

Makes me think of the 3 Rbi homerun.

[NCRaven]

I'll put my outfield hopes in Cowser and Kjerstad, maybe even Mayo if he eventually gets moved, first.  Stowers and Neustrom would providing ML value will be a pleasant surprise - but, we can still hope for that.

[RZNJ]

He's jumped, I mean played, at 3 levels this year.   Maybe he'll improve his contact rates with more experience?

[sportsfan8703]

Stowers and Neustrom are not the same. We’re just brushing off 27 homers now?

[Frobby]

Stowers had a 4 for 5 night that rocketed his Norfolk BA to .317 and his OPS to .888.    

[Just Regular]

Just heard on the game that Stowers gets a Co-Minor League Player of the Year with Rutschman.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Just heard on the game that Stowers gets a Co-Minor League Player of the Year with Rutschman.

He deserves it!   He’s been excellent at all three levels at which he’s played.  He’s leading the MiL org in homers, tied with Neustrom in RBI, .001 behind Rutschman in OPS as of today.   Great season for him.