Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[NCRaven]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

Like with any trade from Elias, I think it will be tough to judge because he likes to get quantity 

I think this point has been overstated on the Hangout.  That's what he has gotten, so far.  That doesn't mean that it's how he will operate in future trades.  That may well depend on where we are in the rebuild and the value he sees on both sides of the trade.  Just not sure that what he asked for or could get in the past is what he'll target in the future.

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think this point has been overstated on the Hangout.  That's what he has gotten, so far.  That doesn't mean that it's how he will operate in future trades.  That may well depend on where we are in the rebuild and the value he sees on both sides of the trade.  Just not sure that what he asked for or could get in the past is what he'll target in the future.

I think it’s just a flat out wrong statement to begin with.

It’s not like Elias has had the players to trade that get you upper level pieces.

If he trades Means and gets back a bunch of quantity, that would be a fair argument to make.  Otherwise, it’s just a bad assessment.

[Sports Guy]

Today, Dan released his Mullins column:

https://theathletic.com/2667924/2021/07/01/should-the-orioles-trade-cedric-mullins-a-panel-of-former-gms-discuss-what-theyd-do/?source=user_shared_article

 

How attractive is Cedric Mullins on this year’s trade market?

Duquette: There are just not many good center fielders around the game. Center fielders are at a premium. So, he would be one of the most attractive players in recent memory at the trade deadline, because of his youth, how inexpensive he is, and the overall offense and defense.

Evans: You look at guys up the middle when you’re building: catchers, shortstops and center fielders. Those are cornerstone positions of a roster. If you’ve got up the middle covered, then you can fill in the rest of the parts of a roster. But it’s also very hard for a club to let go of guys up the middle. It’s very hard to do. And when it’s a young player that’s really coming on, there’s no reason to make a deal with him.

O’Dowd: There’s a dearth of center fielders in our game. For me, he’s a guy I would have moved if I thought there was no plug or power there, but this kid is going to hit 20 home runs this year. I think he should be the starting center fielder in the All-Star Game. A 13th-round draft pick from Campbell (University), I mean, I’m not moving him. And, if I’m overbidding him, then so be it.

Bowden: Extremely attractive. Scouts are believing him. They think this is the real deal here. They think he’s going to be an elite leadoff hitter for years to come, and he’s well sought after. He fits with so many teams. I love him. I love this kid. I remember Dan Duquette raving about him four years ago. He finally gave up switch hitting, and he’s having his breakout year at 26.

[Sports Guy]

What would be a reasonable return for Mullins in this market?

Duquette: The only way you’d even consider that is if you got two of somebody’s top 5 prospects and then another top 10 prospect. So, you’re getting basically three players, but you might have to wait a while for one or two of them to get to the big leagues.

Evans: I don’t think you could get enough value in return to have it make sense. You’d have to be getting probably a major-league-ready bat, position player, and you’d probably need a starting pitcher that’s not quite ready. And you’re probably looking at a second, near-major-league-ready position player. I don’t know that there is a price tag that you could reasonably discuss unless you’ve got a comparable player in somebody else’s system that you think fits your roster better. But it’s hard to really even fathom how a deal would be created for an everyday center fielder who is blossoming right now. The price tag would be too hard for someone to get to.

O’Dowd: You would need to definitely get an impact, young player back, and then some complementary pieces.

Bowden: If (Yankees GM) Brian Cashman wants to call and he wants to overpay and he wants to give me Jasson Dominguez and Deivi García, OK, I will listen to what you have to offer. If you want the player, then you’re going to have to overpay me to the extent that you’re going to have to look at pain down the road. This is the Eloy Jiménez trade (between the Chicago White Sox and Cubs in 2017). This is, “OK, I’m going to give you Mullins, but I’m going to get an Eloy Jiménez-caliber player back. And you’re going to have to look at him for a long time. Because I’m going to win the trade. You get Mullins now so you can win now. You get a great leadoff hitter for three or more years, but I get the better player.”

[Sports Guy]

Would you trade Mullins if you were the Orioles or a team in their position?

Duquette:  I would not trade Mullins. No. Not from what I’ve seen this year. It has been remarkable. I would keep him for sure. I’d try to build around him if I could.

Evans: No.

O’Dowd: No. When you take a kid in the 13th round, that has a psychological factor for your scouting and your development group that goes way beyond wins and losses at the big-league level. That’s a guy you really celebrate. That’s a hard guy to move. And from a fan’s perspective, at some point in time, you’ve got to stop the revolving door and say, “OK, this is the group we are going to grow out of.”

Bowden: Yeah, but it’s going to have to hurt (the other team). They’ve gotta bleed. With (trading John) Means, it is broken bones and bleeding. With this guy, it’s bleeding.

[sportsfan8703]

Trading Mullins is a tough one. I think it comes down to what does Elias see for OD 2022. If things have evolved to where we’re going to keep Means and Mullins, then have AR, Rodriguez, and Hall up on OD, then you don’t trade Mullins. Heck, at that point you don’t have to “give” Mancini away, but have to be blown away as well. 
 

Can the roster below “compete”?  Probably not, but it’s a good foundation to build around. 
 

1.  Mullins CF

2.  Hays LF

3.  Mancini 1B

4.  Santander RF

5.  Mountcastle DH

6.  Rutschman C

7.  3B (Leyba?)

8. 2B (Jones/Vavra?)

9. SS (Galvis on a 1 yr deal?)

Means, Rodriguez, Hall, ?, ?

Harvey, Scott, Fry, Sulser, Wells, Tate, ?, ?

You fill in the ?s with the right pieces, especially a run at Correa, then maybe it’s time to stop tanking  

 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think this is a tough decision at all.  Bowden is 100% right.  If you win the trade..ie you are getting back stud players that teams are sacrificing to win now, you make the trade without hesitation.

Mullins is having a monster year and even if we want to believe that he is a 4+ WAR player for the next 2-4 years, I would still rather have multiple guys with that upside.  Of course, those players aren’t sure things but neither is Mullins.

 

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think teams are going to be willing to pony up for what we have seen from Mullins thus far.  I think that if he can continue at this approximate pace for an entire year he will be a very interesting piece to move in the offseason.

Right now I think the risk profile is a big too big to get the type of return you might see in the offseason.

[Moose Milligan]

They said that they'd have to overpay for Mancini, but I don't know what that really means and I'm wondering if overpaying for Mancini really would be a fantastic return.

They'd have to pry Mullins away with a really good package though, that's all I know.  Top 25 prospect from a top 10 system and others, for starters.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think teams are going to be willing to pony up for what we have seen from Mullins thus far.  I think that if he can continue at this approximate pace for an entire year he will be a very interesting piece to move in the offseason.

Right now I think the risk profile is a big too big to get the type of return you might see in the offseason.

If those reports from Connolly's article are true, people are looking at Mullins like he's the real deal.  Seems to be some belief in the industry that what we're seeing is for real.  

If that's accurate and those beliefs are widespread, I don't think there's much risk there.  That said, I don't think we'd trade him.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If those reports from Connolly's article are true, people are looking at Mullins like he's the real deal.  Seems to be some belief in the industry that what we're seeing is for real.  

If that's accurate and those beliefs are widespread, I don't think there's much risk there.  That said, I don't think we'd trade him.  

If we are still in the talent acquisition phase and folks are willing to trade off of Mullins' first half I think you have to do it.

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think teams are going to be willing to pony up for what we have seen from Mullins thus far.  I think that if he can continue at this approximate pace for an entire year he will be a very interesting piece to move in the offseason.

Right now I think the risk profile is a big too big to get the type of return you might see in the offseason.

Totally agree, which is why I don’t think he will be dealt.  I think these guys are overestimating the thought process and market for him.  It’s just not enough of a sample for teams to really pay up…but if someone wants to, you make the move.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Totally agree, which is why I don’t think he will be dealt.  I think these guys are overestimating the thought process and market for him.  It’s just not enough of a sample for teams to really pay up…but if someone wants to, you make the move.

I think GM are worried that if they trade big for him and he turns into a pumpkin it could be the type of move that gets them fired.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think GM are worried that if they trade big for him and he turns into a pumpkin it could be the type of move that gets them fired.

And justifiably so.

Elias also has risk.  If Mullins remains really good and the trade he gets is garbage, he looks bad too.  
 

I think that’s a big reason this won’t get done right now..ego.

 

[Sports Guy]

We keep hearing from everyone that you can’t bring up Adley because we aren’t winning this year.

The reverse also has to be true then.  We shouldn’t be hesitating on trading guys that aren’t going to be big parts of the next contender.  
 

I think it’s likely Mancini doesn’t fall into that category.  I think it’s possible but unlikely Santander does as well.

The question is Means and Mullins.  Where do you see them In 2-3 years?  Both approaching 30 years old.  What is their value to a contender then and how irreplaceable is it if you look to move them now, when their value is so high?