Long Ball Hurting Matusz

[wildcard]

The AFL regular season ends Thursday, and today is an off day, so I don't expect Matusz to pitch again.

To put his 4.37 ERA into context, the average league ERA is 5.77. He struck out 27 batters in 22.2 innings, had a 27 to 5 K/BB ratio, and allowed 20 hits (.230 BAA). Only the HRs were any concern at all. I'm very satisfied with his AFL performance, even if he wasn't totally dominant.

So off of his performance in the AFL where should he start next year? Frederick? Bowie?

[Frobby]

So off of his performance in the AFL where should he start next year? Frederick? Bowie?

I would say Bowie. He's a lot further ahead than probably any other pitcher we've had in awhile. Right now, he's probably ahead of where Arrieta is, IMO., and Arrieta will certainly start at Bowie. Based on his AFL performance and everything I've seen written about him, I'd say that Frederick would be a waste of time.

While I could go either way on this, I'd say Frederick. There are only three pitchers in the last 11 years who went straight to AA. It's far more common to see pitchers start at A+ but then move very quickly (2 months or so) up to AA. David Price is a good example.

[Stotle]

HiA Frederick for 4-8 starts (depending on how he fairs). Bulk of the season at AA unless he absolutely blows through it and reaches AAA for the last month.

No real advantage to starting him at AA is there? Let him do it at HiA for a handful of starts.

[BaltimoreFan]

While I could go either way on this, I'd say Frederick. There are only three pitchers in the last 11 years who went straight to AA. It's far more common to see pitchers start at A+ but then move very quickly (2 months or so) up to AA. David Price is a good example.

I concur. Additionally, I don't see a reason to put him at AA, it's not like he is needed at the big league level. Even if he dominates A+ for a few months, it's not doing him any harm, and it turned out fine for Wieters. Better safe than sorry; I'd rather he go to Frederick, dominate and earn a promotion than he start at Bowie, struggle and earn a demotion.

[boog26]

Has anyone thought about the guys in blue in the AFL?

I bet it has made a difference.

[Tony-OH]

No doubt, Erbe starts the season at Bowie. Is there one person here on the Hangout who actually believes that Erbe is ahead of Matusz right now as far as development goes?

This is pretty good point if you ask me. Depending on what he shows in spring training, I'd have to seriously consider starting him in Double-A. If he's throwing three pitches for strikes, he's got no reason to start any lower. IF, and that's a big if, he's throwing those three pitches for strikes next spring and showing a decent four option, that would put him ahead of Erbe and Arrieta on the developmental trail so there would be no reason to statr him below them IMHO.

Now saying that, Stockstill is very, very cautious when it comes to starting off guys so it would not surprise me if no matter how well he threw the ball in Sarasota that he ends up starting out in Frederick.

As long as he's up to Bowie by late June that won't be a huge problem, but if he's as advanced as advertises, and nothing he's done in the AFL suggests otherwise, I think he'll be able to move very quickly.

[Tony-OH]

HiA Frederick for 4-8 starts (depending on how he fairs). Bulk of the season at AA unless he absolutely blows through it and reaches AAA for the last month.

No real advantage to starting him at AA is there? Let him do it at HiA for a handful of starts.

I think it really depends on what he shows in spring training. If he throwing thee pitches for strikes there's really no reason to start him at Frederick IMHO.

The advantage of starting him off in Bowie rather than Frederick is that he'll face more advanced hitters which should force him to use more of his stuff rather than sticking with his two main pitches because he can at Frederick.

I've seen this before where the Orioles starters are at too low a level and can get away with just using two pitches. Then they get to the upper levels or the big leagues and can't throw their third pitch effectively. In my opinion, that's a developmental problem because they didn't make the pitcher throw the pitches he might not be comfortable with but will need in the big leagues.

I prefer to see the pitchers challenged at a level that forces them to use their stuff. As long as he's getting his pitches over for strikes, Bowie should be an appropriate level to start off for a guy as advanced as Matusz.

[Stotle]

I think it really depends on what he shows in spring training. If he throwing thee pitches for strikes there's really no reason to start him at Frederick IMHO.

The advantage of starting him off in Bowie rather than Frederick is that he'll face more advanced hitters which should force him to use more of his stuff rather than sticking with his two main pitches because he can at Frederick.

I've seen this before where the Orioles starters are at too low a level and can get away with just using two pitches. Then they get to the upper levels or the big leagues and can't throw their third pitch effectively. In my opinion, that's a developmental problem because they didn't make the pitcher throw the pitches he might not be comfortable with but will need in the big leagues.

I prefer to see the pitchers challenged at a level that forces them to use their stuff. As long as he's getting his pitches over for strikes, Bowie should be an appropriate level to start off for a guy as advanced as Matusz.

Good post. I generally don't disagree, but I think 4-5 starts at HiA allows the player to gain some momentum and confidence, and doesn't really limit his growth at AA (since he'll end up spending most of the season there, anyway. There isn't any reason to try and push him to the ML club, so as long as you aren't artificially preventing him from making the big club by May/June 2010 (if he is ready) I'm fine with giving him the "gift" of looking dominant against Carolina Leaguers for a handful of starts. He's more polished than Price, so I'm not sold on the "Price went to HiA" argument. That said, it didn't stop Price from advancing through a good system in under a year.

[Tony-OH]

Good post. I generally don't disagree, but I think 4-5 starts at HiA allows the player to gain some momentum and confidence, and doesn't really limit his growth at AA (since he'll end up spending most of the season there, anyway. There isn't any reason to try and push him to the ML club, so as long as you aren't artificially preventing him from making the big club by May/June 2010 (if he is ready) I'm fine with giving him the "gift" of looking dominant against Carolina Leaguers for a handful of starts. He's more polished than Price, so I'm not sold on the "Price went to HiA" argument. That said, it didn't stop Price from advancing through a good system in under a year.

You're right, it would not be the worse thing for him to get his feet wet at High-A, but Stockstill generally doesn't promote this way and prefers to have guys in a league for at least half of a season. I would really hate to see him dominating High-A batters for 10-12 starts when he could have been more challenged at Double-A.

Normally I would agree that starting a first year pro in Double-A might be a little too high, but Matusz is supposed to be special due to his ability to get three to four pitches over for strikes with two to three pitches being plus pitches. If that's true, he'll dominate single-A batters with just his curveball and may not use his chanegup enough. Now maybe he will use all of his pitches no matter what level he's at, but when the competitive juices start showing up and players start worrying about numbers, they'll give up those developmental pitches in order to focus on what works.

From all accounts his curveball alone is going to be very effective but we need to make sure he's able to throw his changeup and slider/cutter as well. Will he do that if he's dominating Carolina League batters with his curveball and fastball?

I think your way of giving him maybe a month in Single-A makes some sense in order to get his bearings a bit, but if he's has advanced as he's supposed to be, I still would prefer he start off at Double-A.

[Frobby]

As I said before, I could go either way on this. One thing to consider is, who goes to Bowie if Matusz doesn't? We actually have a big crowd at Frederick between guys who need to repeat that level (Beato, Bascom, Renshaw) and guys who deserve a promotion from Delmarva (Britton, Gleason, Nery, maybe Butler). Meanwhile there are openings at Bowie because Tillman, Hernandez, Bergesen and Berken all are worthy of promotion, but only Arrieta and Erbe pitched well enough at Frederick to make a compelling case to move up.

Obviously, Matusz's placement should depend more on his own development than the expediency of where he ranks among other candidates, but in a close case (which this is), the fact that we have openings at Bowie and a big crowd at Frederick might be the tie-breaker here.

[Tony-OH]

As I said before, I could go either way on this. One thing to consider is, who goes to Bowie if Matusz doesn't? We actually have a big crowd at Frederick between guys who need to repeat that level (Beato, Bascom, Renshaw) and guys who deserve a promotion from Delmarva (Britton, Gleason, Nery, maybe Butler). Meanwhile there are openings at Bowie because Tillman, Hernandez, Bergesen and Berken all are worthy of promotion, but only Arrieta and Erbe pitched well enough at Frederick to make a compelling case to move up.

Obviously, Matusz's placement should depend more on his own development than the expediency of where he ranks among other candidates, but in a close case (which this is), the fact that we have openings at Bowie and a big crowd at Frederick might be the tie-breaker here.

Great point. I was thinking about that as well but failed to put that into my argument. When you look at the system as a whole, it'll be hard to justify putting a 22-year Matusz at Frederick when so many others need to be there more. The only thing is that Stockstill is very cautious so that has to be put into the equation.

[Stotle]

As I said before, I could go either way on this. One thing to consider is, who goes to Bowie if Matusz doesn't? We actually have a big crowd at Frederick between guys who need to repeat that level (Beato, Bascom, Renshaw) and guys who deserve a promotion from Delmarva (Britton, Gleason, Nery, maybe Butler). Meanwhile there are openings at Bowie because Tillman, Hernandez, Bergesen and Berken all are worthy of promotion, but only Arrieta and Erbe pitched well enough at Frederick to make a compelling case to move up.

Obviously, Matusz's placement should depend more on his own development than the expediency of where he ranks among other candidates, but in a close case (which this is), the fact that we have openings at Bowie and a big crowd at Frederick might be the tie-breaker here.

I'm going to duck for cover after I type this, but I think Tillman should probably start out at AA again [running away quickly....]

[Frobby]

I'm going to duck for cover after I type this, but I think Tillman should probably start out at AA again [running away quickly....]

That wouldn't shock me. He needs to work on command and pitching deeper into games.

[Frobby]

I will also add this: Matusz's 6 starts in the AFL this fall basically count as AA experience, and in a way moving him to Frederick would be having him take a step backwards.

Now, you could have said the same about Arrieta, but the situation was a little different because (1) he was used exclusively as a reliever in the AFL, and (2) we already had a full rotation at Bowie.

I definitely agree with Tony that if Matusz goes to Frederick at all, it should only be for 1-2 months unless there are unforeseen problems. We don't want Matusz to be in Frederick through the minor league all-star break.

[Stotle]

I will also add this: Matusz's 6 starts in the AFL this fall basically count as AA experience, and in a way moving him to Frederick would be having him take a step backwards.

Now, you could have said the same about Arrieta, but the situation was a little different because (1) he was used exclusively as a reliever in the AFL, and (2) we already had a full rotation at Bowie.

I definitely agree with Tony that if Matusz goes to Frederick at all, it should only be for 1-2 months unless there are unforeseen problems. We don't want Matusz to be in Frederick through the minor league all-star break.

Yeah, I said five or so starts. Have him up in May. Still on track, then, to get called-up in 2010 is things go well.