Connolly article on pitching

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hall is hurt, they don’t trust Wells to start, Zimmerman is a back end guy and the other 3 are complete mysteries.

I think one of those guys, along with Grayson and Means will become a starter for us long term.  I don’t think it’s more than that.

This team will, with 100% certainty, have to go out and buy/trade for at least one and likely more than 1 starter. 

I definitely don’t think it’s encouraging that two scouts both see Baumann as a future BP piece.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one knows that this ownership group will do.

We know they are investing in things their dad didn’t, which gives us hope.

We also know that on the ML level, they have been very cheap and very cheap with the support staff as well.  Does that mean anything?  Who knows.  It’s all speculation because the question has yet to be answered.

If they do nothing with the staff again this offseason and sign more Matt Harvey guys and project Lopez for the rotation again, I think we will have our answer.

We’ll have our answer about next year.  

I do hope they find a couple of half decent guys to stabilize the pitching staff.   It is not a good environment for young players to learn in when games are frequently out of reach.   
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I definitely don’t think it’s encouraging that two scouts both see Baumann as a future BP piece.

Well look, you could find out scouts who disagree.  Asking 2 scouts is certainly a SSS and scouts are wrong all the time.

That being said, Baumann shouldn’t be having outings like his last one and he did struggle in a big way at times this year.  I have high hopes for him but the reality is that reliever is almost always the most likely path for these guys.  Being able to go through a lineup 2 and 3 times isn’t easy.  There is a reason only so much pitchers become successful starters.  It’s just very hard to do.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

We’ll have our answer about next year.  

I do hope they find a couple of half decent guys to stabilize the pitching staff.   It is not a good environment for young players to learn in when games are frequently out of reach.   
 

Bring in a couple of vet starters, improve the pen and get Adley up here and watch the dramatic improvement of the entire staff.  

But they have to spend money.  They have to make trades.  You can’t just keep signing Matt Harvey and expecting it to work.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Bring in a couple of vet starters, improve the pen and get Adley up here and watch the dramatic improvement of the entire staff.  

But they have to spend money.  They have to make trades.  You can’t just keep signing Matt Harvey and expecting it to work.  

You mean Adley can’t fix him?

[Sports Guy]

Means, Stroman, Price, GRod and Zimmerman/Baumann

Make a pen out of T Wells, Kremer, Akin, Baumann/Zimmerman, Bautista, Scott, Fry, Tate, H Harvey, Vespi, Sulser…but add one real FA arm to the pen on top of what we have.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hall is hurt, they don’t trust Wells to start, Zimmerman is a back end guy and the other 3 are complete mysteries.

I think one of those guys, along with Grayson and Means will become a starter for us long term.  I don’t think it’s more than that.

This team will, with 100% certainty, have to go out and buy/trade for at least one and likely more than 1 starter. 
 

 

BS.   We are talking about the future of the rotation.  Of course they are all not ready now.

DL Hall is highly ranked with great stuff.  We do not know that his injury will limit his future.  He is still a top 100  prospect for a reason.  

Tyler Wells was a starter until his TJ surgery.  He is a reliever now because its his first year coming back from the surgery.  They are limiting his innings because he has not pitched in a while.   Next spring he will a full go.  Elias/Holt will determine if he is needed more as a starter or a closer.  He has the size and stuff to be a starter if that is where they want him.

Baumann is showing well at AAA as a starter. He had one bad start, so what.  That is outing weighed by his good starts.  He has the size and stuff to be a starter.   Still working of the control but he is making progress.

Bradish has move quickly to AAA.  O's rave about his stuff.   Still need a little seasoning but he will probably be ready for the major sometime next year.

Zimmermann - You are probably right he is a back end starter.  The O's can use him as just that.   He has progressed well since traded by  the Braves.  Fastball has improved.   Don't discount how useful he can be.

Brnovich has pitched well and earned a promotion to AA.   Kind of negates the argument that there is no one following the guys above him on this list.

Kremer - Don't give up on this guy.  Led AA in strikeout in 2019.   Has the pitches.  Was promoted too fast.  Needs the time to start at AAA before he is ready for the majors.

 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I definitely don’t think it’s encouraging that two scouts both see Baumann as a future BP piece.

I would bet there two scouts that think he will be a starter.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

BS.   We are talking about the future of the rotation.  Of course they are all not ready now.

DL Hall is highly ranked with great stuff.  We do not know that his injury will limit his future.  He is still a top 100  prospect for a reason.  

Tyler Wells was a starter until his TJ surgery.  He is a reliever now because its his first year coming back from the surgery.  They are limiting his innings because he has not pitched in a while.   Next spring he will a full go.  Elias/Holt will determine if he is needed more as a starter or a closer.  He has the size and stuff to be a starter if that is where they want him.

Baumann is showing well at AAA as a starter. He had one bad start, so what.  That is outing weighed by his good starts.  He has the size and stuff to be a starter.   Still working of the control but he is making progress.

Bradish has move quickly to AAA.  O's rave about his stuff.   Still need a little seasoning but he will probably be ready for the major sometime next year.

Zimmermann - You are probably right he is a back end starter.  The O's can use him as just that.   He has progressed well since traded by  the Braves.  Fastball has improved.   Don't discount how useful he can be.

Brnovich has pitched well and earned a promotion to AA.   Kind of negates the argument that there is no one following the guys above him on this list.

Kremer - Don't give up on this guy.  Led AA in strikeout in 2019.   Has the pitches.  Was promoted too fast.  Needs the time to start at AAA before he is ready for the majors.

 

I respect the fact that SSS and optimism rules your posts.  That’s great.

But you just aren’t a realistic person.  The Orioles are not going to have a starting rotation made up of only developed guys.  It’s just not happening.  
 

Some stuff you say here is true..a lot of it is meaningless bs.  

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some stuff you say here is true..a lot of it is meaningless bs.  

C'mon now. No need for that. Wildcard is a good dude.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

C'mon now. No need for that. Wildcard is a good dude.

He is….but that still doesn’t change what I said.  He is a very over the top optimistic guy.  Nothing wrong with having that mindset but it’s not realistic.  Talking about Wells being a starter 3 years ago in the lower minors really doesn’t mean anything.

His defense is basically, everything will work out fine, blah blah blah.  It’s just not realistic at all.  

[Aristotelian]

I agree pitching depth is a weakness. A major part of the issue is I think Elias was hoping that one of our top 30ish in the recent cohort - Zimmerman, Kremer, Lowther, Akin - would pan out as at least back end rotation option. Zimmerman has been injured and the rest have been an unmitigated disaster. I don't think it is unreasonable for him to have had higher expectations based on their minor league success. And I definitely question whether it was wise to pick so many outfielders in this year's draft.

Still, for this to be convincing you'd have to compare to other organizations. How many have more than two top 100 prospects plus a collection of guys that have a chance? Just looking at Seattle, supposedly the #1 system, their #3 pitching prospect has grade 50, 4.57 ERA in AA; next guy grade 50, 5.61 ERA in A; next two guys are doing well through AA grade 50; next guy is a 45 with 4.5 ERA in A, etc. How much worse is our collection of guys after Rodriguez and Hall? Baumann and Bradish are 50's who did well through AA and at least holding their own in AAA, Smith is a 45 who dominated through AA, Rom is a 40 who has dominated through A. 

 

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is….but that still doesn’t change what I said.  He is a very over the top optimistic guy.  Nothing wrong with having that mindset but it’s not realistic.  Talking about Wells being a starter 3 years ago in the lower minors really doesn’t mean anything.

His defense is basically, everything will work out fine, blah blah blah.  It’s just not realistic at all.  

And you think this organization adding David Price and Marcus Stroman next year is likely? You're criticizing him for not being realistic?

[Moose Milligan]

Doom and gloom, SG!  That's my department, as you love to point out how negative I am.  After webbrick I do believe I'm the most negative person here, a badge I wear with honor. 

Yes, our minor leagues, after G-Rod and Hall, look to be filled with guys that have average stuff.  Perhaps some of them can develop a pitch like Means developed his changeup and rise above, but odds are that these guys are who they are.  It's plain as day, in order to succeed in the majors right now you most likely have to have a big fastball and a wipeout slider/curveball.  If you don't, you absolutely have to be able to dot a gnats ass and have good movement on your fastball and secondary offerings.  You need to be able to strike guys out at a high rate, consistently.  

If Kremer, Akin, Lowther etc are any hint of what's to come, this rebuild is going to fall flat on its face unless Elias can bring in quality free agents (read: will the Angelos brothers allow him to spend).

 

[Aristotelian]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Angelos doesn’t see pitching as a great long term investment…and he’s right.

The problem is, the Os have to deal with it and get into the mindset that maybe 1-2 years of a contract aren’t going to be good.  If you sign Stroman to a 5/125 deal and he gives you his usual 3-4 WAR season for 3 out of those 5 years, that is a successful contract overall, even if the other 2 years aren’t good.  You just have to look at it that way.

 

 

 

I don't disagree. Most competitive teams bring in a veteran starter or two to put them over the top. Houston did.  I'm just not sure I buy that the O's pitching depth is a weakness compared to other organizations.