Is pitching development an issue in AAA and the majors?

[Sports Guy]

Something that has been talked about is how as guys get to AAA and the majors, that they are struggling.

I took a look at some guys (feel free to add more if you want, I just chose these guys) and looked at their stats to see if that is true.

The first thing I must say is we are dealing with pretty small sample sizes, so some of these numbers really only mean so much but its all the data we have to go off of for now.

Kyle Bradish: 

• AAA: 58.2IP/5.06 ERA/11 K rate/5.1 BB rate/.8 HR rate/ 1.1 hit rate (just did hits/IP for this)
• Rest of the minors: 114.6 IP/ 3.76 ERA// 11.4 K rate/ 4.5 BB rate/ .7 Hr rate/.84 hit rate

Kevin Smith

• AAA: 36 IP/ 5.75 ERA/11.5 K rate/6.5 BB rate/2.2 HR rate/.94 Hit rate
• rest of minors: 166.2 IP/10.5 K rate/3 BB rate/.43 HR rate/.83 Hit rate

Dean Kremer

• MLB: 68.1/6.59 ERA/8.9 K rate/ 4.7 BB rate/ 1.9 HR rate/ 1.03 hit rate
• AAA: 62.2/6.75 ERA/10.2 K rate/3 BB rate/ 1.3 HR rate/1.2 Hit rate
• rest of minors: 336.1/3.31 ERA/11 K rate/3.2 BB rate/.67 HR rate/.9 hit rate

Keegan Akin:

• Majors: 89.1 IP/6.95 ERA/9.3 K rate/3.7 BB rate/1.5 HR rate/1.3 Hit rate
• AAA: 114.1/4.80 ERA/10.7 K rate/4.9 BB rate/.9 HR rate/.97 hit rate
• rest of minors: 263.2/ 3.38 ERA/ 9.6 K rate/3.8 BB rate/.95 HR rate/.82 hit rate

Zac Lowther

• Majors: 8.1/ 10.8 ERA/11.9 K rate/4.3 BB rate/2.2 HR rate/1.6 Hit rate
• AAA: 24.2/ 6.83 ERA/10.6 K rate/5.5 BB rate/1.1 HR rate/1.2 Hit rate
• rest of minors: 326 IP/2.25 ERA/10.5 K rate/2.0 BB rate/.47 HR rate/.7 hit rate

Alex Wells

• Majors: 18.2 IP/7.71 ERA/7.2 K rate/4.4 BB rate/1.45 HR rate/1.45 hit rate
• AAA: 52.2/3.42 ERA/7.9 K rate/1.2 BB rate/1.03 HR rate/.9 hit rate
• rest of minors: 475.2/2.81 ERA/7 K rate/1.4 BB rate/.9 HR rate/.9 hit rate

 

This is certainly a mixed bag in a lot of ways and again, numbers are skewed by SSS or something like the 2019 AAA season for Akin. But overall, you definitely see the regression as they get into AAA and the majors although I am encouraged to see some peripherals staying relatively close to the lower minors.  

This all begs a simple question.  Is this a development issue or is it simply that AAA and especially the majors are just harder and there is natural regression.

Obviously we have other examples...Tyler Wells has developed well albeit in a completely different role, so its hard to compare.  What about guys like Tanner Scott and Tate?  Are they developing but I just find it interesting to look at.  Many of us have said the development isn't there in AAA and the majors (or at least it needs to be worked on, however you want to word it) but there is some reason to think that isn't true.

I also think, looking at these numbers, that you see just how poorly some of these guys have been handled this year and how few innings some of them have.  Its really hard to gauge things.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

They are still using different balls in AAA/Majors and the rest of the minors correct?  That may be a small factor.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They are still using different balls in AAA/Majors and the rest of the minors correct?  That may be a small factor.

Yes thank you.  I forgot to mention that in the OP.

[Sports Guy]

And, of course, there is more to development than just pure stats.  Its also pitch improvement and things like that.  But just going with readily available data.

[Big Mac]

Wells notably has not seen a dropoff in his stats at the AAA level, especially when compared with others.  I still don't think the stuff plays at the ML level but I'd be fine with him taking his turn in the rotation the rest of the year just to see what we have. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They are still using different balls in AAA/Majors and the rest of the minors correct?  That may be a small factor.

Or just the talent level increase. We haven’t had any legit top prospects struggle in AAA. These guys are all fringey #4/5 types at best. They’re struggling like #4/#5 types do. 
 

Our realistic best bet is that we have a rotation of Means, Rodriguez and Hall, then  the others give us at least one MLB quality starter. Or we have to make a trade or go into FA. 

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And, of course, there is more to development than just pure stats.  Its also pitch improvement and things like that.  But just going with readily available data.

We were told in 2019 that Akin's statistical dropoff was because they were forcing him to use his secondary pitches more to better prepare him for his big league career.

How's that working out for him?

[joelala]

Certainly seems like it this year but could simply be these guys you mentioned in your OP just aren’t very good and that is being exposed. Although Kremer did have some success last year with the big club…

I’ll wait until we see what Grayson and (hopefully) Hall do in AAA and their first taste of the majors. 

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Or just the talent level increase. We haven’t had any legit top prospects struggle in AAA. These guys are all fringey #4/5 types at best. They’re struggling like #4/#5 types do. 
 

Our realistic best bet is that we have a rotation of Means, Rodriguez and Hall, then  the others give us at least one MLB quality starter. Or we have to make a trade or go into FA. 

Other teams manage to bring guys up who aren't top 100 MLB prospects and some of them actually have very good careers.

I hope that we can find guys like that too.

[joelala]

4 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Other teams manage to bring guys up who aren't top 100 MLB prospects and some of them actually have very good careers.

I hope that we can find guys like that too.

Means. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Other teams manage to bring guys up who aren't top 100 MLB prospects and some of them actually have very good careers.

I hope that we can find guys like that too.

Idk how we find that. We spend little draft capital on pitching and when we do it’s NCAA upper classmen. Carter Baumler has really been the only arm Elias has invested in. I understand he has a plan, but we’re still two years away from seeing if we’ll even have the excess bats to buy the arms with. 

[Just Regular]

7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We were told in 2019 that Akin's statistical dropoff was because they were forcing him to use his secondary pitches more to better prepare him for his big league career.

How's that working out for him?

Yesterday on his podcast Eno Sarris was describing some of the Giants Rays success with guys being just as simple as throw your good pitches more.   Matt Wisler and his slider being one of the flavors of the month.

I think that kind of developmental exercise is necessary if you hope to get a 30 GS/150 IP outcome, but for Akin and all his fellow scufflers this year, there is the whole strategic retreat of let's maximize your 1-2 best pitches.   It isn't hard to imagine those being this year's Exit interview offseason instructions for him and a few others.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Yesterday on his podcast Eno Sarris was describing some of the Giants Rays success with guys being just as simple as throw your good pitches more.   Matt Wisler and his slider being one of the flavors of the month.

I think that kind of developmental exercise is necessary if you hope to get a 30 GS/150 IP outcome, but for Akin and all his fellow scufflers this year, there is the whole strategic retreat of let's maximize your 1-2 best pitches.   It isn't hard to imagine those being this year's Exit interview offseason instructions for him and a few others.

They said that about the Angels and Bundy last year.

 

[Frobby]

I don’t think there’s an easy, one size fits all answer.    All the samples are relatively small.   

Bradish - relatively inexperienced to reach AAA.   He’s had quite a few good outings and a few disastrous ones.   I think he’s progressing OK.   

Smith - a problem

Kremer - actually has gone backwards this season.   Seems to have lost confidence somehow.   

Akin - his AAA stats were respectable given the offensive environment in 2019 AAA.  Not as good as AA, but respectable.   He looked OK last year but this year just very inconsistent from one inning to the next.    I don’t think more AAA will help him.    Just keep putting him out there and hope he figures it out.  

Lowther - badly yo-yoed this year and hasn’t had a chance to settle in.    

Wells - has adjusted to AAA quite well but hasn’t looked on top of his game in his major league appearances.   Might just be nerves or overthinking it.   His stuff will never be overwhelming but he’s capable of having much better command than we’ve seen in his few major league outings so he should get more opportunities.   

Not mentioned: Baumann — transition to Norfolk has gone very well so far.   He pitches again tonight.   

[wildcard]

Means, Grayson, Baumann, Tyler Wells, Zimmermann and Alex Wells all seem ready to compete for the rotation next spring.   A veteran starter would be a good addition. Grayson may need a little time at AAA but he is not far from being ready for the O's.

Doesn't seem like problems with develop.  Some make it and some go to the pen or don't make it in the majors.  That is par for the course.