19 Game Streak Post-Mortem

[TonySoprano]

ESPN did an article on worst losing streaks in history.  The Orioles came in at #1 and #3

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1. 2021 Baltimore Orioles

19-game skid | minus-108 run differential

And here we are. As you can see, there have been longer losing streaks than the Orioles' just-snapped skid. But arguably no one has played worse than Baltimore just did over a three-week period. To draw it out: The Orioles were outscored by 108 runs during the skid -- a differential 21 runs worse than the next-worst team in the ranking.

Fun facts: There too many to reduce to one. So here's where the Orioles' losing streak stands out even on this listing of the most epic skids.

1. That run differential.

2. Baltimore's 8.50 team ERA during the streak was 1.19 runs higher than the next-worst team on the list, the 2005 Royals.

3. The Orioles lost just one one-run decision during the skid. Every other team on the list had at least two such games.

4. The Orioles lost just two games by two runs, for a total of three close losses. Every other team on the list had at least five close losses.

5. Baltimore lost 10 times by five or more runs, the most of any team in the rankings.

6. Oriole batters hit 25 homers during the skid, the most of these teams, but also struck out 177 times -- 25 more than any of the other teams.

How long it took to get better: TBD

As we've seen, the teams that suffered epic-length losing streaks have all eventually returned to relevance. But it has required various degrees of patience from their fans for the turnaround to happen. And for some fans, it didn't happen until their club had moved on to another city.

The average team on this list took 12 years to return to postseason and 22 years to win a title, and for a couple of those teams, those waits are still accumulating. The Orioles have been in rebuilding mode for a few years at this point, so for the sake of their fans, let's hope that this horrific streak represents the worst of times and not a sign that the good times are still a long way off.

One way to look at it is this: If this was truly the most horrific stretch of baseball in modern history, it can only get better from here, right?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32090098/did-baltimore-orioles-just-play-worst-stretch-baseball-modern-mlb-history

Here's a full excerpt from Jayson Stark's latest as many of you don't subscribe to the Atlantic.

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Here’s the first sign your team is having kind of a rough season: When its name appears in a sentence that includes the phrase:

Since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

Here at Weird and Wild World HQ, we love those Spiders, a.k.a., The Worst Team That Ever Played Baseball. By which we mean: 114 games under .500 (20-134)! … and also minus-724 run differential! … and also spectacular 1-40 finish in their last 41 games!

So the good news is, the 2021 Orioles aren’t that bad. But they’ve now, officially, worked themselves into the conversation in the Worst Teams Since the Spiders debate. And as someone who loves Camden Yards and has a mother-in-law who still watches every Orioles game, I’m not a fan of that. But here we are. And here’s why I can argue this case:

THE 33-SKIDOO CLUB — Fortunately, the Orioles managed to win Wednesday (and also Thursday). So at least they avoided becoming only the seventh team in the post-Spiders era to lose 20 games in a row. Unfortunately, they did not avoid this:

• They did become the first team to lose 19 in a row (or more) and have another losing streak of 14 in a row (or longer) in the same season since … (right!) … the Spiders!

• They also became just the second team in the post-Spiders portion of baseball history to rack up 33 losses just in two losing streaks. And the last team to do that did it 60 years ago. That was Clay Dalrymple’s fabled 1961 Phillies, with a record 23-gamer and a 10-gamer. Not pictured: Casey Stengel’s belovedly horrendous 1962 Mets.

• And what was the last team to do it before those Phillies? … Right! … the Spiders! With 40 games worth of losses in just two streaks (24 and 16) — plus many more horrid streaks where those two came from. But just remember, had the Orioles not won Wednesday, they would have been the first team to reach 34 since … right! ..the Spiders!

TEAHOUSE OF THE AUGUST SWOON — By winning Wednesday and Thursday, the Orioles guaranteed they wouldn’t break the record for worst winning percentage in a calendar month (any month) by any team since … right! … the Spiders! (That modern record, for months of 21 games or more, is 1-22, by Jeff Stone’s 1988 Orioles.) But…

• These Orioles were the first team to start any calendar month by going 1-20 since those ’88 Orioles. And the last team before them to do that was … right! … the Spiders! (They went 1-27 that September, after the city of Cleveland told them to please never play a home game again.)

• And also … the Orioles’ 7.68 team ERA in August, even after those two straight wins, is still quite a sight. But that’s not even the Weird and Wild part. It would also be the worst ERA by any team in any month since earned runs became an official stat over a century ago. (Minimum: 21 games in the month.) Those 1899 Spiders, incidentally, averaged 8.14 runs allowed per game that September. But there were lots and lots of errors in those days. So had ERA existed, even they wouldn’t have gotten to 7.68.

OFF THE RECORD — Fourteen pitchers have started a game for these Orioles. Zero of those 14 have a winning record. Would you believe that 14 pitchers also started a game for those 1899 Spiders? None of them had a winning record, either, because … Spiders! (The only pitcher on that Spiders team, in fact, who didn’t have a losing record was their shortstop, Harry Lochhead, who got into one game in emergency relief, but a little too late to lose it.)

WHEN SPIDERS INSPIRE — Finally, after running up a 19-game run differential of (yikes) minus-108 — worst by any team over any 19-game span since … right! … the Spiders — something amazing happened Wednesday. The Orioles went into the eighth inning trailing the Angels, and then…

The O’s erupted for five runs in the eighth … to take the lead after the third inning for the first time in 15 days … and then won, to stop that losing streak. And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, only one other team in history had ever come from behind in the eighth inning or later to win a game that ended a losing streak of 15 games or longer.

And that team was … right! … the Spiders! Who ended a 24-game streak. And then, naturally, never won again before the franchise was mercifully disbanded.

https://theathletic.com/2792797/2021/08/27/stark-weird-and-wild-padres-dodgers-drive-all-night-edition/

[bobmc]

7 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

ESPN did an article on worst losing streaks in history.  The Orioles came in at #1 and #3

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32090098/did-baltimore-orioles-just-play-worst-stretch-baseball-modern-mlb-history

Here's a full excerpt from Jayson Stark's latest as many of you don't subscribe to the Atlantic.

https://theathletic.com/2792797/2021/08/27/stark-weird-and-wild-padres-dodgers-drive-all-night-edition/

And during that last W over the then woeful NY Yanks, I was smiling smugly and texting my Yankee friends that the end was near for them.  How times have changed in the interim!  Remember Pat Valaika?  He hit a bomb as did ROYan Mountcastle.  Now the Yanks have a crazy streak of their own and are "destined to be WS Champs"!  Oy!

[Tony-OH]

I think this amount of ineptitude is why some people have become frustrated with the rebuild. I think 98% of people new this team needed to be rebuilt and losing was going to be a part of it. I'm not sure anyone thought they needed to be historically bad to do so. 

Elias stripped this team down until it was an embarrassment in historical ways, and while I don't believe he meant for the team to be this bad, at the end of the day, it was that bad. 

It's a little disheartening to know your team has sunk to this kind of low and even if the team returns to some kind of winning consistent ways, this stain will never go fully away. 

[Pickles]

In the end we probably end up looking back at this as the bottom of the bottom, and when the turnaround began.

Similar to how I've always felt about the 30-3 game in 07.  

It's not perfectly analogous, because in 07 we actually got worse on the field going forward, but there was a clear direction.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think this amount of ineptitude is why some people have become frustrated with the rebuild. I think 98% of people new this team needed to be rebuilt and losing was going to be a part of it. I'm not sure anyone thought they needed to be historically bad to do so. 

Elias stripped this team down until it was an embarrassment in historical ways, and while I don't believe he meant for the team to be this bad, at the end of the day, it was that bad. 

It's a little disheartening to know your team has sunk to this kind of low and even if the team returns to some kind of winning consistent ways, this stain will never go fully away. 

We thought the historically bad season was going to be 2018 not 2021.

[Pickles]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I think this amount of ineptitude is why some people have become frustrated with the rebuild. I think 98% of people new this team needed to be rebuilt and losing was going to be a part of it. I'm not sure anyone thought they needed to be historically bad to do so. 

Elias stripped this team down until it was an embarrassment in historical ways, and while I don't believe he meant for the team to be this bad, at the end of the day, it was that bad. 

It's a little disheartening to know your team has sunk to this kind of low and even if the team returns to some kind of winning consistent ways, this stain will never go fully away. 

I understand the frustration and I share it in many ways.  As SG has said, we didn't need to be this bad.  If we were just garden variety bad, there'd be few complaints.

I really do think going forward however, we won't be this bad.  If we stink like this in 12 months, something's gone wrong, and perhaps a change in direction is in order.

However, the bolded is just wrong.  The stripping down was done before he even arrived.

Now, Elias has continued to do things, like trade Iglesias, or Villar, or Bundy, that has contributed to this team being this bad.  If Elias had a more conservative approach we probably could just be garden variety bad.  

But to me the difference between 65 and 55 wins is not enough to say that Elias stripped this thing down.

[Pickles]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

We thought the historically bad season was going to be 2018 not 2021.

I'm not sure why anybody would think we'd getter better AFTER undertaking a rebuild.

I mean the whole point of such an exercise is generally to get worse in the short term.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm not sure why anybody would think we'd getter better AFTER undertaking a rebuild.

I mean the whole point of such an exercise is generally to get worse in the short term.

Because it's really hard to not improve when 47-115 is your baseline.  (Yes I know the 2021 team currently has a higher winning percentage)

It takes talent, it takes vision, it takes dedication to lose that many games.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because it's really hard to not improve when 47-115 is your baseline.  (Yes I know the 2021 team currently has a higher winning percentage)

It takes talent, it takes vision, it takes dedication to lose that many games.

Eh.  It just takes delusion.  The prior regime was delusional about the reality of their situation.

We see it all the time.  Much of the world is not in touch with reality.  And most of the terrible things happening on your television screen every day, happen because people aren't in touch with reality and are delusional.  They're often the very "smartest" and "brightest" and "accomplished" among us.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand the frustration and I share it in many ways.  As SG has said, we didn't need to be this bad.  If we were just garden variety bad, there'd be few complaints.

I really do think going forward however, we won't be this bad.  If we stink like this in 12 months, something's gone wrong, and perhaps a change in direction is in order.

However, the bolded is just wrong.  The stripping down was done before he even arrived.

Now, Elias has continued to do things, like trade Iglesias, or Villar, or Bundy, that has contributed to this team being this bad.  If Elias had a more conservative approach we probably could just be garden variety bad.  

But to me the difference between 65 and 55 wins is not enough to say that Elias stripped this thing down.

I never said he began the stripping down, but he traded every player of value that he could and replaced them with AAAA guys. Not only did he trade the three you mentioned, he also trade away the three effective relievers (Bleier, Givens and Castro). 

So no, I'm not wrong at all. He did strip this team down to bare bones and didn't even replace them with marginal ball players or players just needing a shot somewhere. 

Along with the fact that he's in the toughest division in baseball with a ridiculous unbalanced schedule, and this is how you become historically bad. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Eh.  It just takes delusion.  The prior regime was delusional about the reality of their situation.

We see it all the time.  Much of the world is not in touch with reality.  And most of the terrible things happening on your television screen every day, happen because people aren't in touch with reality and are delusional.  They're often the very "smartest" and "brightest" and "accomplished" among us.

Were they delusional or were they under marching orders to continue to try and compete even though most could see the window was closed?

We also have to remember the dysfunction of the three headed regime with DD, Anderson and Buck all via for some kind of influence with an aged owner who probably should not have been making major decisions at this time in his life.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Eh.  It just takes delusion.  The prior regime was delusional about the reality of their situation.

We see it all the time.  Much of the world is not in touch with reality.  And most of the terrible things happening on your television screen every day, happen because people aren't in touch with reality and are delusional.  They're often the very "smartest" and "brightest" and "accomplished" among us.

Huh?

What does the delusions of the prior regime have to do with anything?

It is actually difficult to be this poor on the field.  This is ordinarily a rare occurrence, to see teams do this poorly.  The 2018 team stumbled onto it.  This year is 100% intentional, and that's an impressive achievement.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I never said he began the stripping down, but he traded everything player of value that he could and replaced them with AAAA guys. Not only did he trade the three you mentioned, he also trade away the three effective relievers (Bleier, Givens and Castro). 

So no, I'm not wrong at all. He did strip this team down to bare bones and didn't even replace them with marginal ball players or players just needing a shot somewhere. 

Along with the fact that he's in the toughest division in baseball with a ridiculous unbalanced schedule, and this is how you become historically bad. 

It's semantics but it really does color how people view the rebuild so that's why I even bothered to say anything.

There are things Elias could have done to make this team better- some, as you point out, were simply things he didn't have to do- i.e. trade some vets for prospects.  It's pretty clear that this team didn't have to be THIS bad.  A couple minor upgrades and we are indeed just garden variety bad and nobody is too upset.

However, the reason we're not competitive now- and I'm not talking the difference between 55 and 65 wins, but actually a real major league franchise- is because of decisions which were made in advance of Elias ever arriving.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think this amount of ineptitude is why some people have become frustrated with the rebuild. I think 98% of people new this team needed to be rebuilt and losing was going to be a part of it. I'm not sure anyone thought they needed to be historically bad to do so. 

Elias stripped this team down until it was an embarrassment in historical ways, and while I don't believe he meant for the team to be this bad, at the end of the day, it was that bad. 

It's a little disheartening to know your team has sunk to this kind of low and even if the team returns to some kind of winning consistent ways, this stain will never go fully away. 

So far as I’m concerned, if the team returns to winning I won’t give a second thought to how bad this team was.   But I realize not everyone will feel that way.   

I don’t consider 14 years of losing and then 5 years of contending to be a good ratio.   What I want is a much shorter period of losing (no matter how bad that gets) and then a nice, sustained period where the team is good and I can expect it to stay good.   

Some people think the team could accomplish that without being this bad, some don’t.   I tend towards the latter group, but honestly it doesn’t much matter to me.    Just get to the point where we’re winning and can stay competitive in a sustained way, as soon as feasible.   
 

 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Were they delusional or were they under marching orders to continue to try and compete even though most could see the window was closed?

We also have to remember the dysfunction of the three headed regime with DD, Anderson and Buck all via for some kind of influence with an aged owner who probably should not have been making major decisions at this time in his life.

I can't answer that.  I'm not sure it matters other than maybe assigning blame.

Regardless, it still stemmed from delusion- be it ownership's or management's.