Offseason target: Tyler Glasnow

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If it’s the #1 system and the system is deep beyond the top 2, you can easily make these types of trades because it means you not only have depth but very good depth.

If that isn’t true than the farm system is overrated.

But the depth hasn't gotten to the point where we have guys stuck in AAA because there are no openings in the majors or guys who can't get up to AAA because they are blocked by other prospects.   It's getting to that point but not there yet.

There is no need to gamble on trading future pieces right now when you can still take another year to have a better idea of what you've got.  Also, another year of the pipeline getting filled with more talent and that talent progressing up the pipeline.

By the way, I'm not saying the system isn't overrated or perhaps just because its rating #1 doesn't mean it's really all that elite.   I still think it needs to get better in terms of depth.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

But the depth hasn't gotten to the point where we have guys stuck in AAA because there are no openings in the majors or guys who can't get up to AAA because they are blocked by other prospects.   It's getting to that point but not there yet.

There is no need to gamble on trading future pieces right now when you can still take another year to have a better idea of what you've got.  Also, another year of the pipeline getting filled with more talent and that talent progressing up the pipeline.

By the way, I'm not saying the system isn't overrated or perhaps just because its rating #1 doesn't mean it's really all that elite.   I still think it needs to get better in terms of depth.

That’s all fair..but while waiting on these guys, some will fail. 
 

The idea that we should just sit around and wait for everyone is wrong imo.  Most of these guys will never make an impact in the majors.  You need to start moving some of them to get better, especially on the pitching side of things since it’s going to be tough to get anyone here.

[JR Oriole]

I like the idea of bringing in a player from an organization that actually wins major league games.  Each time one of our pitchers comes back to the dugout after getting obliterated, they are surrounded by players that have done nothing but lose at this level.  Having veterans (or even non-veterans) from winning organizations has to provide some benefit to our younger players that only know how to get destroyed on the field.  At this point, anybody from Tampa is a good pick-up.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I like the idea of bringing in a player from an organization that actually wins major league games.  Each time one of our pitchers comes back to the dugout after getting obliterated, they are surrounded by players that have done nothing but lose at this level.  Having veterans (or even non-veterans) from winning organizations has to provide some benefit to our younger players that only know how to get destroyed on the field.  At this point, anybody from Tampa is a good pick-up.  

Maybe we can get Alex Cobb back?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe we can get Alex Cobb back?

[RZNJ]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s all fair..but while waiting on these guys, some will fail. 
 

The idea that we should just sit around and wait for everyone is wrong imo.  Most of these guys will never make an impact in the majors.  You need to start moving some of them to get better, especially on the pitching side of things since it’s going to be tough to get anyone here.

Correct.  Most prospects don't pan out but some overachieve and we have seen plenty of deals that worked out for the team getting the prospects as well.   You don't know.  I don't know.   The question is, do you make that gamble now and do you gamble on short term pieces.   I think the answer to that question is clearly no.   Of course, it does depend on the specific pieces but in general I think it's a clear no at this point.

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s all fair..but while waiting on these guys, some will fail. 
 

The idea that we should just sit around and wait for everyone is wrong imo.  Most of these guys will never make an impact in the majors.  You need to start moving some of them to get better, especially on the pitching side of things since it’s going to be tough to get anyone here.

I think most on the board would be in favor of a SP and/or 3B upgrade. The question is whether to trade away prospects is the best way to do that. I'd prefer to just sign some guys. We have a good system now but we want to keep it that way. I like Glasnow slightly more than Chapman since he would cost less, but would prefer something like Descalfini and Josh Harrison. Dream offseason would be Robbie Ray and Harrison. 

I think most of the Rule 5 guys that need to be protected can be protected so we're not at the point of trading off prospects. We also have enough holes to fill that redundancy is good. 

[Sports Guy]

Josh Harrison??

Aside from signing 34 y/o guys to start who should be, at best, UTI players, I agree that spending money is preferred and have said that repeatedly.

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Josh Harrison??

Aside from signing 34 y/o guys to start who should be, at best, UTI players, I agree that spending money is preferred and have said that repeatedly.

He has put up 2.5 WAR this year. Massive upgrade over Franco, close to Chapman level production at a fraction of the cost and zero commitment. I think he would be perfect type of guy for us while we are waiting on Gunnar and Mayo. Much more realistic than Chapman. Another target in that range is Eduardo Escobar. Then put any additional payroll into pitching. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

He has put up 2.5 WAR this year. Massive upgrade over Franco, close to Chapman level production at a fraction of the cost and zero commitment. I think he would be perfect type of guy for us while we are waiting on Gunnar and Mayo. Much more realistic than Chapman. Another target in that range is Eduardo Escobar. Then put any additional payroll into pitching. 

He also put up a -.1 WAR the last 4 years combined. 
 

Of course he is more realistic..because he isn’t that good and he’s old and you would be asking him to play a position exclusively, which isn’t something he usually does. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He also put up a -.1 WAR the last 4 years combined. 
 

Of course he is more realistic..because he isn’t that good and he’s old and you would be asking him to play a position exclusively, which isn’t something he usually does. 

Good comeback but the question remains, are we building the best possible team for 2023, or the best possible team for 2023-2028?  I'm not a proponent of selling out wins in 2024-2028 for more wins in 2023.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Good comeback but the question remains, are we building the best possible team for 2023, or the best possible team for 2023-2028?  I'm not a proponent of selling out wins in 2024-2028 for more wins in 2023.

Why can’t we do both?

[Aristotelian]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He also put up a -.1 WAR the last 4 years combined. 
 

Of course he is more realistic..because he isn’t that good and he’s old and you would be asking him to play a position exclusively, which isn’t something he usually does. 

Exactly... perfect fit for us. Look, you can keep posting ridiculous Matt Chapman threads and fantasize about bringing in All Star level guys. In the real world, the Orioles are in the midst of a rebuild. We will not (and should not) be trading Gunnar Henderson level prospects and we will be cautious about spending money in free agency. I have suggested $20M AAV in free agency as a possible framework for improving the club this offseason (but even that I feel is probably pushing it). What combo of SP and 3B would you sign within that framework? I know, your answer is to trade guys and spend $60M but that's just magical thinking.   

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why can’t we do both?

 

That should be the marker on your gravestone.   Is it possible to do both?   Yes, in fantasyland.    Moves for Chapman and Glasnow, on paper, strengthen the team in 2023 but weaken it after 2023.   I get it.   You are doing to trade 3 prospects for Chapman and none are going to be any good and then you are going to give him a qualifying offer and get an even better prospect.    Same thing, on a lesser scale for Glasnow.    It's possible in a best, best case scenario but it isn't very likely.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

That should be the marker on your gravestone.   Is it possible to do both?   Yes, in fantasyland.    Moves for Chapman and Glasnow, on paper, strengthen the team in 2023 but weaken it after 2023.   I get it.   You are doing to trade 3 prospects for Chapman and none are going to be any good and then you are going to give him a qualifying offer and get an even better prospect.    Same thing, on a lesser scale for Glasnow.    It's possible in a best, best case scenario but it isn't very likely.

I’m not suggesting trading a bunch of top guys for these players.  We have talked about Gunnar and 3-4 guys in the 10-20ish range.

Thats not franchise crippling and if it is, we are doomed anyway.

And again, these trades, particularly Chapman, are only ones you do if the ownership commitment is there to do more. Without that, these moves are hollow.