Who is the Orioles 2021 #4 prospect?

[Frobby]

 

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

 

• This was shared by @Frobby

Posted October 9

“Westburg is ahead of Gunnar, having had  130 PA in AA compared to Gunnar’s 17.   Westburg also had the stronger performance at all three levels.  

I think both players start next year back in AA, but Westburg could move quickly to AAA after 1-2 months if he has a good start at Bowie.  Henderson I think will spend most of the year in AA but could spend the last 1/3 season in AAA if things go well.”

 

I was surprised too, given the enthusiasm about Gunnar.

 

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You do know what he means there when he says “he’s ahead” right?

 

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Gunnar: Age 20-120 days

Westburg: Age 22-251 days

Right.  My post was about who belongs at the higher level to begin the year, not who is the better prospect.   I like both but Gunnar is the better prospect.   Westburg is 2.4 years older and should move up more quickly, as he did last year.   

[LookinUp]

I really do like Westburg though. Can't wait for Tony's write-up on him.

[HowAboutThat]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

 

 

Right.  My post was about who belongs at the higher level to begin the year, not who is the better prospect.   I like both but Gunnar is the better prospect.   Westburg is 2.4 years older and should move up more quickly, as he did last year.   

Fair enough, given your comments I misunderstood you.

There is the question of whether a quicker arrival has any bearing at all on prospect placement.

After all, prospecting is just a potential, however great the potential it’s just that. Actually arriving and meaningfully producing is the goal, and the guy who can arrive sooner and meaningfully produce, Might have an edge over greater potential that is as yet unproven.

Edit: that would only be a factor when two guys are very close, of course.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Philip said:

Fair enough, given your comments I misunderstood you.

There is the question of whether a quicker arrival has any bearing at all on prospect placement.

After all, prospecting is just a potential, however great the potential it’s just that. Actually arriving and meaningfully producing is the goal, and the guy who can arrive sooner and meaningfully produce, Might have an edge over greater potential that is as yet unproven.

Edit: that would only be a factor when two guys are very close, of course.

I do think it’s a factor, especially at the extremes.  With Rutschman, he’s basically major league ready and there aren’t significant questions about how he’ll do as he moves up the ladder.   With a guy like Mayo, he’s got miles to go and many questions to answer about how he’ll handle good breaking stuff, pitchers with a repertoire and good command, etc.    With Westburg and Henderson, they both played low A, hi A and AA last year.   Westburg arrived at hi A and AA a month or two before Henderson did, and did better than Henderson at those levels, but he’s also 2.4 years older, which is huge.  Henderson was 3.9 years younger than the average AA player.   He’s got a lot of time to grow into things and I think the O’s will be patient with him in 2022.   

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

There is the question of whether a quicker arrival has any bearing at all on prospect placement.

Stowers would not be where he'll end up on Tony's list if he were in A or AA. It's because he did what he did in AAA and is ready for the next step. He's produced against better competition. That means his risk is lower, as it relates to experience at least.

[HowAboutThat]

Rewarding to learn from these comments and from various reports and articles.

So Henderson is younger but farther along and more successful. 

this report is only one, but it tipped the scales to Gunnar for me. I had Hall at 3, but it seems his injury is holding him back.

https://prospectsworldwide.com/2021/04/17/colton-cowser-of-scouting-report-2021-mlb-draft-prospect/amp/

 

[interloper]

This is Hall vs. Cowser for me. I voted Cowser but kind of think it'll be Hall. 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Hall.  Too much "arm talent" to drop further.  Had him at 3 and I'll stay with him til he makes the list.

Ditto

[fitzi22]

I’ll admit I was the lone vote for Stowers.  I feel he is better than Heston who hasn’t played yet and Hall who I believe is best suited as a dominant bullpen arm (Aroldis Chapman).  Gunnar didn’t really impress this year even though he was much younger than his competition.  It was a coin flip for me between Cowser and Stowers and Stowers had more at bats against tougher competition so I felt more comfortable.  Stowers was a .280 hitter in college with power and this year across 3 levels had a .278 average with 27 dingers in only 530 plate appearances.  The guy is consistent against all levels of competition and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in bmore in the second half next year.  Cowser may end up better but it is hard to make that judgement right now until he gets more appearances against tougher pitching.

[Ruzious]

41 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is Hall vs. Cowser for me. I voted Cowser but kind of think it'll be Hall. 

I feel like Cowser wins because it's a battle of a quality 2-way OFer who can play CF vs someone who has talent but got injured and could end up as a reliever.   

[LookinUp]

10 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

I’ll admit I was the lone vote for Stowers.  I feel he is better than Heston who hasn’t played yet and Hall who I believe is best suited as a dominant bullpen arm (Aroldis Chapman).  Gunnar didn’t really impress this year even though he was much younger than his competition.  It was a coin flip for me between Cowser and Stowers and Stowers had more at bats against tougher competition so I felt more comfortable.  Stowers was a .280 hitter in college with power and this year across 3 levels had a .278 average with 27 dingers in only 530 plate appearances.  The guy is consistent against all levels of competition and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in bmore in the second half next year.  Cowser may end up better but it is hard to make that judgement right now until he gets more appearances against tougher pitching.

I'm on the Cowser side, but it's also worth pointing out that Stowers is also supposed to be a very good outfielder. Not saying he can more to CF as easy as Cowser (both better at CoF), but he apparently holds his own well out there.

[Ripken]

CC.  Hall next.

[Moose Milligan]

I went with Cowser, too.  The sneak peek we got to see this year vaults him this high.  I know some are worried about the lack of power but I'm not.  He's got a chance to be a high average hitter and it looks like he could be in the 1:1 ratio for walks to strikeouts.  IMO, he's got a chance to rise faster than anyone else in the organization.  Barring CoC's favorite topic of the labor dispute, I think he can get up to Norfolk by season's end and Baltimore in 2023.  

[emmett16]

The fact that one of these guys is going to be the 8th ranked prospect in our system is pretty dang amazing.  We've come a long way.  

[linedrive]

It's gotta be Cowser. We drafted him, he put up the numbers, and he seems healthy, which is a big key for me.