The problem with extending Mancini

[LookinUp]

I don’t think there’s a shot they sign him to any extension before the next trade deadline. More likely they have a tough conversation after next season.

[wildcard]

From MLBTR.com

With Trey Mancini entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, there has been much discussion over whether the first baseman will remain with the Orioles or head elsewhere, either via trade or as a free agent next winter.  It isn’t clear if the O’s are willing to sign any veteran player (even the beloved Mancini) to a long-term extension as they continue their rebuilding process, though MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski suggests that the team could split the difference by pursuing a shorter-term extension with Mancini.  Inking Mancini to a deal of two or three years would be especially beneficial if the Orioles became competitive earlier than expected, and an extension wouldn’t necessarily mean that the team couldn’t still trade Mancini down the road.  Indeed, teams might be more interested in acquiring Mancini if they knew they’d have him for more than just the 2022 season.

Of course, it isn’t known if Mancini himself would be open to such a shorter-term arrangement, though he has often said that he loves playing in Baltimore.  Mancini turns 30 years old in March, so in the event of a short-term extension, he would be delaying his free agency until at least the start of his age-32 season.  While a short-term deal would lock in some more money immediately, Mancini might prefer to bet on himself in 2022 and wait for a more lucrative, longer-term contract next winter.  Mancini has earned $4.75MM in each of the last two seasons and is projected to earn $7.9MM in his final arb year, so he already banked some financial security throughout his career.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/east-notes-mancini-rojas-bendix.html

 

[Just Regular]

 

41 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Probably a better chance than most would say. He was one of the best 30 hitters in MLB in 2019.  

I agree. A lot of people seem to forget that he put up a .826 OPS/120 OPS+ in 2017 as well. He's hardly a one hit wonder.

I asked because I think Trey vs. the 1B/DH/LF/RF field for 2023 could go either way, not because I'm expecting him to be clearly out.  Today, I'd probably expect him to be narrowly out, but I'm still on Santander's team Glass Half Full.

I'm hopeful the 2023 Orioles grow into a strong enough team its lineup is hard for a player of his caliber to crack.   Ballparking Mancini against that field...

I feel Hays and Mountcastle are favorites to be better 2-way performers in 2023.   I feel Cowser is likely to project that way, though who knows what finishing touches on his life mastery of the game of baseball may be necessary in spring 2023.

That leaves one spot for Mancini, Santander, Stowers, Neustrom.   Sure, Kjerstad was kind of a goof.   Hitting live pitching is a skill and even if we are fortunate enough to get 600 encouraging PA next year I believe he actually will still be rebuilding himself to whatever extent he can that spring.

Stowers and Neustrom to me somewhat are what Trey once was - mid-round college sluggers who are slugging.   So as you are building a 2023 team that hopefully actually cares about what its 1450 innings are pitched like, even if one of them only projects to be 75% as good, their availability to do that for 7.5% of the $$$ may tip the odds their way.    Never mind if Orioles Player Development helps them build on their 2021 breakouts.

I think Santander and Mancini are both MOO bats much of next year and we'll see how they play.   I don't expect any rapid action by Club or Player to assign Mancini's 2023 rights until the I's are dotted and T's crossed on NL DH, how big rosters are, how much more/less revenue sharing around the game there is, etc, etc, etc

[HowAboutThat]

Mancini Has about 6,000,000+ dollars in the bank. If that doesn’t make somebody financially secure for life, they’ve got serious problems. So let’s forget about the financial security argument.

The face of the franchise changes every few years: one guy leaves, another guy comes in. Let’s forget about the face of the franchise argument too.

We have guys, and will have several more guys, cheaper and younger, who do what Trey can do.
He can hit, but that’s all. His defense at first is adequate, but adequate defensive first baseman who can hit above league average are bountiful. He’s not going to bring anything meaningful back in a trade at this time, although if he comes out of the gate blasting full speed next spring, he might bring something back.

Great respect for Steve, who, unlike Roch, Is actually venturing an opinion and defending it, but the very suggestion is foolish. No extension for Trey. I am very fond of him, and was delighted by his demeanor and attitude during the home run contest, but no.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Keeping him around because the team isn't currently using the money for something better isn't a sound argument.

I think that starting next season Adley and Grayrod are the faces of the franchise.

By the time Trey walks, the team should be improving significantly and that’s a reason the (remaining) fans will stick around.   If we were expecting to be as bad in 2023 as we were in 2021, I might see some PR value in keeping Mancini.   But an improving team should sell itself.   

[MGH5208]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

We have guys, and will have several more guys, cheaper and younger, who do what Trey can do.

this is where I am.  

I'm a huge Trey fan but I don't see Elias paying him when he can evaluate "future pieces" for less money.

And i don't see Trey as that Brantley piece that puts them over the top when they are competitive

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, MGH5208 said:

this is where I am.  

I'm a huge Trey fan but I don't see Elias paying him when he can evaluate "future pieces" for less money.

And i don't see Trey as that Brantley piece that puts them over the top when they are competitive

I agree, I think Trey does play for the O's next year, but it will be his last season as an Oriole. If Trey can rebound and bounce back to what he was in 2019, then he definitely has value. 

But Elias isn't going to spend his limited funds on finding out, when there is Mountcastle and other players on the horizon who can play 1B/DH. I just hope when Trey does move on he's play for a team that isn't the Yankees/Red Sox/Blue Jays.  

[Camden_yardbird]

22 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

As the longest tenured Oriole and a fan favorite with a feel good comeback story, I think Trey has value to the organization that goes beyond just what he produces on the field. The problem is quantifying that added value.

If he could be extended this offseason (so including his final arb year) at something like 3/$27M with an option for a 4th year (say, $7M/10M/10M/13M with a $3M buyout on the option for a total of $30M or 4/$40M), I think that might be worth doing. If he wants 4 guaranteed years or more than $10M per year, then probably not.

If you are operating like a small market team you cant sign "feel good" players.

[jabba72]

 

20 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I don’t think there’s a shot they sign him to any extension before the next trade deadline. More likely they have a tough conversation after next season.

This is what I think happens too. Hopefully he has a good year, but its likely to be his last one with the O's. 

[Porky]

On 10/31/2021 at 5:58 PM, Frobby said:

By the time Trey walks, the team should be improving significantly and that’s a reason the (remaining) fans will stick around.   If we were expecting to be as bad in 2023 as we were in 2021, I might see some PR value in keeping Mancini.   But an improving team should sell itself.   

I also don't think that a 31 year old 1B/DH who is pretty limited defensively is going to cost that much. He's worth more to the Orioles than anyone else. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Porky said:

I also don't think that a 31 year old 1B/DH who is pretty limited defensively is going to cost that much. He's worth more to the Orioles than anyone else. 

If you are talking about off the field value, then he probably does.   On the field, I suspect in a year there will be teams who could use his services more than we can.   

[NCRaven]

Hate to see Mancini becoming a 1st Base version of Freddy Galvis.  Someone that gets a one year deal to fill a hole until Prospect X is ready or the team hopes to turn him into a trade deadline chip.  On second thought, I guess there are worse ways to make a few extra million before you retire in your mid-30's.

[Ruzious]

34 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Hate to see Mancini becoming a 1st Base version of Freddy Galvis.  Someone that gets a one year deal to fill a hole until Prospect X is ready or the team hopes to turn him into a trade deadline chip.  On second thought, I guess there are worse ways to make a few extra million before you retire in your mid-30's.

He's living the dream - playing baseball for a living while earning millions of dollars - and has a beautiful family.  He can comfortably retire in his mid 30's.  It's crazy to feel bad for Trey.  

[maybenxtyr]

23 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

He's living the dream - playing baseball for a living while earning millions of dollars - and has a beautiful family.  He can comfortably retire in his mid 30's.  It's crazy to feel bad for Trey.  

Exactly, because of his talent he's guaranteed to have a sizeable bank account and the best health care available. I don't begrudge these guys anything but it is annoying when someone acts like playing out the string is anything but better than what most people in the world will ever know.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

He's living the dream - playing baseball for a living while earning millions of dollars - and has a beautiful family.  He can comfortably retire in his mid 30's.  It's crazy to feel bad for Trey.  

So long as he stays cancer-free, he’s got a great life.   Crossing my fingers on his long term health.