2021 Orioles #9 Prospect - Heston Kjerstad - OF

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/03/9-heston-kjerstad/

[Frobby]

Not much to say other than what’s in the write-up.   I think this is the right spot for him this year, but next year he’ll either be top 5 or further down the list.  

[ChuckS]

Average to slightly below average runner.  I see you graded him as a 55 for that tool for future value.  Did you mean to put in 45 there?

[oriole]

I’ve got high hopes and low expectations for him. I didn’t realize that his defense was so uninspiring. I figured since he was drafted so high he’d have a better skill set than strictly left handed power. Considering he couldn’t work out really for the last year and a half and that he may not even play a game in his career, I expect to see him fall further by this time next year. I’m hoping to be wrong though and will be ecstatic to see him have some success. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

I’ve got high hopes and low expectations for him. I didn’t realize that his defense was so uninspiring. I figured since he was drafted so high he’d have a better skill set than strictly left handed power. Considering he couldn’t work out really for the last year and a half and that he may not even play a game in his career, I expect to see him fall further by this time next year. I’m hoping to be wrong though and will be ecstatic to see him have some success. 

He was drafted that high but no one other than Elias seemingly rated him so highly.

[ChuckS]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was drafted that high but no one other than Elias seemingly rated him so highly.

From what I recall the consensus was that he was around the 10th best prospect available.  Maybe Elias had him a little higher but it was clearly a savings move so we could sign Mayo and Baumler.  Kjerstad signed for more than the 8th pick but less than the 7th pick.  So we paid him like a number 8 selection.  

[Tony-OH]

33 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Average to slightly below average runner.  I see you graded him as a 55 for that tool for future value.  Did you mean to put in 45 there?

Yep, thanks for the catch!

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

From what I recall the consensus was that he was around the 10th best prospect available.  Maybe Elias had him a little higher but it was clearly a savings move so we could sign Mayo and Baumler.  Kjerstad signed for more than the 8th pick but less than the 7th pick.  So we paid him like a number 8 selection.  

Good post. That puts things into perspective a bit. It’s not like he was thought to be 20 slots lower. Also, it seems like Elias puts a lot of stock in the various “Team USA” players. Maybe it’s a coincidence because the top players play on those teams, or maybe that’s where Elias gets his best scouting/analytics from. 
 

@Frobby summed it up pretty good with the first reply of this thread. Not much to say here. We just have to be glad he’s alive and healthy. We’ll have to wait and see what he does in the minors next season. 

[joelala]

I’m more intrigued and excited to see him this year than any other player in the system because there’s such a wide range of potential outcomes. 

[oriole]

56 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

From what I recall the consensus was that he was around the 10th best prospect available.  Maybe Elias had him a little higher but it was clearly a savings move so we could sign Mayo and Baumler.  Kjerstad signed for more than the 8th pick but less than the 7th pick.  So we paid him like a number 8 selection.  

Mayo has looked real good so far so it’s a nice concession for what could potentially be a less productive pick than even Rowell or Hobgood. Honestly I really don’t like that approach for drafting but I can’t be too upset with the results so far. I’m not quite as high on Mayo as Tony but I can’t deny he’s looked good. Makes the Kjerstad pick and diagnosis easy to digest from a baseball perspective. 

[LookinUp]

39 minutes ago, joelala said:

I’m more intrigued and excited to see him this year than any other player in the system because there’s such a wide range of potential outcomes. 

I expect Kjerstad to start pretty slowly. Just speculating, but if "resuming baseball activities" actually meant he was in great shape, I feel like we'd be hearing it. I'm just really pessimistic on his recovery timeline. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

From what I recall the consensus was that he was around the 10th best prospect available.  Maybe Elias had him a little higher but it was clearly a savings move so we could sign Mayo and Baumler.  Kjerstad signed for more than the 8th pick but less than the 7th pick.  So we paid him like a number 8 selection.  

Sure, I wasn't trying to say the guy was a scrub, just that he isn't the type of guy that is dripping in tools that you expect to see at the very top of a draft.  A left handed power bat at corner outfield has value.

[Chaka Garcia]

Maybe I'm wrong, but sounds like a future DH with his average defense and not being very fast in the outfield.

[Yossarian]

I really hope he can get in playing shape and put his health issues behind him - and be good enough to make it to the big league team.  The idea of a big, power left-handed bat in the 4th or 5th spot in the order in Camden Yards is exciting.  Someone that can protect Mountcastle/Stowers/Mayo (or whoever)  in front of him.  Time is already working against him.  He is a college player (played through his junior year?) that has not participated in baseball activities for a year and a half.  I like the potential, but I think he has a very small window of time to work in to get to Baltimore.

[Joep]

Maybe he will end up being another Joey Gallo