Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens on the Orioles’ FA Needs

[NCRaven]

The Orioles opened 2021 with Ruiz at 2B, Galvis at SS, and Franco at 3B.  Only Galvis provided value.  An infield that includes Matteo, Urias and Harrison is a definite upgrade.  Expecially when you consider the very little value provided by others including Guttierez and Valaika that played those positions.  Harrison is definitely not a long-term piece of the puzzle, but he wouldn't be expect to fill that role.  I like the young position players that we have coming up through our system and some of them are getting close to being ready for major league action.  Harrison provides value now on the type of deal I mentioned, i.e., one year with an option, without impacting any of the younger players.  And, if he can provide value to a contender at the trade deadline, you move him and promote Westburg or Ortiz.  If he sucks, you waive him and promote a younger player.

The moves that will make us truly competitive include the promotion of younger talent including the likes of Rutschman, Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad, et.al.  But the moves that really move the needle will involve pitching.  The promotions of Rodriguez and Hall, the signing of a legitimate ML veteran to a multi-year deal, or a trade for more young, high ceiling pitching.

The one thing I agree with Sports Guy on is that if you can get a guy like Stroman at 5/$110, which I believe was MLBTradeRumors estimate, or even a bit more to get him to come here, you do it.  Use one spot in the rotation for a solid veteran starter.  Hold onto Means - for now.  Promote Rodriguez and, hopefully, Hall.  Use that last rotation piece to see what you have in Zimmerman and the rest of the youngish pitching.

But, I would not clog up the infield with long-term contracts when you have young players on the way.  Young players with high ceilings and payroll flexibility.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t get how that is a definite upgrade. 
 

Franco was worth in 2020, in way less games, more than what Harrison was worth from 2018-2020 And almost the same as Harrison in 2021.

People tend to forget that because he was so awful for us..but he had recently been good.

Mateo has done nothing in the majors.  He has talent and upside but that’s it.  THe history of the sport is littered with guys just like him who became nothing.

It’s amusing to me how many of you are ready to hand him a starting spot.  Why?  Because he runs fast?  Because he shows good tools?

He is 26 (27 in June) and he has produced a total of .3 fWAR thus far.  He has played in 111 games but only 237 PA.

His career MiL OPS is 747 and that is in almost 3000 at bats.  
 

Tools are great but there is zero evidence that he should be anything more than a UTi guy who has to earn playing time and yet people here are ready to hand him the starting SS position and they actually want that.  Like, don’t search for better players, we have Mateo!  It’s astounding to me how low this team has set the expectations and people continue to be ok with it and find reasons why player X should be given the chance.

[NCRaven]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get how that is a definite upgrade.  As a group Matteo, Urias, and Harrison have the potential, at least, of being an upgrade.  Nothing is ever a sure thing.
 

Franco was worth in 2020, in way less games, more than what Harrison was worth from 2018-2020 And almost the same as Harrison in 2021.  My point is that Harrison should be an upgrade over what Franco gave us in 2021.

People tend to forget that because he was so awful for us..but he had recently been good.

Mateo has done nothing in the majors.  He has talent and upside but that’s it.  THe history of the sport is littered with guys just like him who became nothing.  Matteo is an upside play based on his talent.  That's it.  No one is saying he's the future at any position, but he's certainly shown enough to be considered.

It’s amusing to me how many of you are ready to hand him a starting spot.  Why?  Because he runs fast?  Because he shows good tools?

He is 26 (27 in June) and he has produced a total of .3 fWAR thus far.  He has played in 111 games but only 237 PA.  He played for the Padres.  Who in that infield would you sit for Matteo?  For the Orioles, there's plenty of room to give a shot.

His career MiL OPS is 747 and that is in almost 3000 at bats.  
 

Tools are great but there is zero evidence that he should be anything more than a UTi guy who has to earn playing time and yet people here are ready to hand him the starting SS position and they actually want that.  Like, don’t search for better players, we have Mateo!  It’s astounding to me how low this team has set the expectations and people continue to be ok with it and find reasons why player X should be given the chance.  You may be right, but I see no reason to sign another infielder to a multi-year deal at this point in time.  I think we have enough quality talent coming up to fill those needs that I wouldn't make it a priority in the free agent market now. 

If at the end of next season, you decide that Westburg, Henderson, Ortiz, Mayo, Vavra, Jones etc. are bums, the rebuild is a bust anyway.

 

[Sports Guy]

Few things:

1) He may not play in front of anyone in SD but if teams were clamoring for him, they would have dealt him.  I also think he was more highly regarded than Chenoworth and then he got outplayed.  There is a reason he hasn’t gotten a chance.  Sure, sometimes guys slip through the cracks or they develop late.  We see that every once in a while and while I am on board with him getting the everyday job over a guy like Galvis, I am not happy with just handing him The job and being lazy and not getting a better option.

2). Why SHOULD Harrison be an upgrade?  The previous 3 years, he basically wasn’t an upgrade and even though he played well last year, he is still 34.  Harrison could easily be a negative value player next year.  I think it’s fair to say he stands a good chance to be better than Franco in 2021 but it’s likely he still isn’t that good.  Being better than a negative player isn’t difficult but it also doesn’t mean that it will make any difference.

3) Your last point is just wrong.  If Vavra, Ortiz, Jones and other guys like that (ie, guys outside the top 10-20 guys) don’t develop, that doesn’t mean anything.  You hope that, out of the top 9 guys, that half-ish of those guys become real players.  So, it’s not like our rebuild is shot in that regards.

What we shouldn’t be doing is assuming all of these guys will hit and we shouldn’t sit on our hands when a chance is there to truly improve the team.  Now, I agree that we shouldn’t sign middling guys to long term deals or something like that but I do think they should be looking for a definite SS(or third base) option long term or something like that.  Nothing wrong with adding a first division starter at a key position. 

[NCRaven]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

3) Your last point is just wrong.  If Vavra, Ortiz, Jones and other guys like that (ie, guys outside the top 10-20 guys) don’t develop, that doesn’t mean anything.  You hope that, out of the top 9 guys, that half-ish of those guys become real players.  So, it’s not like our rebuild is shot in that regards.  My quote included Westburg, Henderson and Mayo, who you conveniently left out.  I think those three have more value to a team like the O's than any of the high priced free agent shortstops who are unlikely to want to play for Baltimore anyway.

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

 

I didn’t leave them out..I made a blanket statement about the top 9. Those 3 could bust and the other 6 boom and the rebuild will be fine.

[Camden_yardbird]

If the Orioles don't add cornerstone playoff players now they are just stealing our money as fans. Cornerstone free agent players are often added one or two years ahead of playoff contention.

You don't build a playoff contender in an off season, that doesn't leave room for adjustment and that how you end up wasting the control period for top prospects.

The Orioles also need to be cognizant of the direction of the CBA.  If a salary floor is phased in, or control rules are changed to incent bringing up top prospects early in the year (e.g. changing arb rules) the Orioles need to be prepared to act in the free agent market accordingly.

No one can know what that looks like now.

[jamalshw]

I think we are at a turning point in the rebuild. That is, of course, not to say we will be competitive this year because we most certainly will not. That is, however, to say that we are going to start to see the key prospects coming up, most notably Rutschman and Rodriguez. We need guys for these players to learn from. Means and Mancini fit into that a bit, but a good veteran back-up catcher and a solid starting pitcher would be my targets. 

As many have noted, you start adding a year or two early otherwise it's too much to do in one offseason. We will need to add more than just one or two pieces when it comes time. There isn't enough pitching in the system for the farm to do all the lifting. So, I would love to get a mid-rotation arm that can: (1) eat innings to protect the pen, (2) help take some pressure off Rodriguez and the other young arms, (3) be here in a couple years when we are actually trying to win. 

I'm actually okay if we go into the season with Urias, Mateo and Jones (along with seeing Nevin at 3B) playing most of the games in the infield to start the year with Vavra and Westburg potentially earning their way up by the end of the year. I don't hate the idea of bringing in a Galvis-like veteran to help, but I'm much more interested in seeing pitching...and of course we will need a couple catchers on the 40-man (or at least one if the CBA is such that promoting Rutschman for opening day makes sense). 

[Porky]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Some people avoid that hard question by denying that money not spent this year can be spent at a later time.   And I’ve realized that those people are never going to change their mind, and they’re not going to change my mind either.   

I've seen you write this a few times, and I disagree with you each time. I don't think it's realistic to expect that money "not spent" this year is being "saved" for tomorrow.

The team's cash flow and resources are more complicated than that. The team is bad, so revenue and profit is down. Beside that, we've seen so many peculiar moves from this organization. Earlier in the year, the O's were trying to get Mancini and Santander to take deferrals on their arbitration salaries. They gutted their broadcast teams. There were reports about MASN and its issues earlier in the year. For anything we've heard, the O's seem relatively cash-strapped.

By not spending, if you mean future payroll flexibility in terms of "money saved" - then yes, you're correct. But thinking $20m saved this year is being held in a vault for another year - I just don't think it's believable based on everything we've seen from the O's this year.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Porky said:

I've seen you write this a few times, and I disagree with you each time. I don't think it's realistic to expect that money "not spent" this year is being "saved" for tomorrow.

The team's cash flow and resources are more complicated than that. The team is bad, so revenue and profit is down. Beside that, we've seen so many peculiar moves from this organization. Earlier in the year, the O's were trying to get Mancini and Santander to take deferrals on their arbitration salaries. They gutted their broadcast teams. There were reports about MASN and its issues earlier in the year. For anything we've heard, the O's seem relatively cash-strapped.

By not spending, if you mean future payroll flexibility in terms of "money saved" - then yes, you're correct. But thinking $20m saved this year is being held in a vault for another year - I just don't think it's believable based on everything we've seen from the O's this year.

Do you think Elias simply enjoys losing? Why else would he be slashing payroll unless there is some understanding that it will go higher when the team is competitive?

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Porky said:

I've seen you write this a few times, and I disagree with you each time. I don't think it's realistic to expect that money "not spent" this year is being "saved" for tomorrow.

The team's cash flow and resources are more complicated than that. The team is bad, so revenue and profit is down. Beside that, we've seen so many peculiar moves from this organization. Earlier in the year, the O's were trying to get Mancini and Santander to take deferrals on their arbitration salaries. They gutted their broadcast teams. There were reports about MASN and its issues earlier in the year. For anything we've heard, the O's seem relatively cash-strapped.

By not spending, if you mean future payroll flexibility in terms of "money saved" - then yes, you're correct. But thinking $20m saved this year is being held in a vault for another year - I just don't think it's believable based on everything we've seen from the O's this year.

I'll agree that revenue is down, I don't think that nessirily means profit is down.  Obviously Covid has been a factor the last two seasons but the Astros, for instance, were insanely profitable during their tank years. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Do you think Elias simply enjoys losing? Why else would he be slashing payroll unless there is some understanding that it will go higher when the team is competitive?

Because he's an employee and is doing what his employer is telling him to do.

That's a possibility right?

[Porky]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Do you think Elias simply enjoys losing? Why else would he be slashing payroll unless there is some understanding that it will go higher when the team is competitive?

I'm sure the payroll will go higher eventually. But, not because they put some money in a vault from 2019-2022. Not really sure how that practice would be considered a sustainable way to build a team anyway.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because he's an employee and is doing what his employer is telling him to do.

That's a possibility right?

 

1 hour ago, Porky said:

I'm sure the payroll will go higher eventually. But, not because they put some money in a vault from 2019-2022. Not really sure how that practice would be considered a sustainable way to build a team anyway.

Yes, the buck stops with ownership and nobody knows exactly how they work. I don't know that a dollar saved now equals a dollar more to spend in the future but I would assume it makes it easier. We have seen the opposite, where wasting money while the team is losing becomes a constraint.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Porky said:

I've seen you write this a few times, and I disagree with you each time. I don't think it's realistic to expect that money "not spent" this year is being "saved" for tomorrow.

The team's cash flow and resources are more complicated than that. The team is bad, so revenue and profit is down. Beside that, we've seen so many peculiar moves from this organization. Earlier in the year, the O's were trying to get Mancini and Santander to take deferrals on their arbitration salaries. They gutted their broadcast teams. There were reports about MASN and its issues earlier in the year. For anything we've heard, the O's seem relatively cash-strapped.

By not spending, if you mean future payroll flexibility in terms of "money saved" - then yes, you're correct. But thinking $20m saved this year is being held in a vault for another year - I just don't think it's believable based on everything we've seen from the O's this year.

Yea.  There is no rainy day fund.

I don’t get why Frobby believes this either.