Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens on the Orioles’ FA Needs

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Yes, the buck stops with ownership and nobody knows exactly how they work. I don't know that a dollar saved now equals a dollar more to spend in the future but I would assume it makes it easier. We have seen the opposite, where wasting money while the team is losing becomes a constraint.

When the Orioles payroll jumped in the mid 2010s, it was because of arbitration raises.  There were some FA contracts but nothing huge.  The Orioles didn’t spend more money in 2016 because they saved a lot of money in 2012. 

Now, if the team has a budget in mind and they don’t have money on the books in any given year, that allows them to spend more to reach that budget but that’s different than saying they are saving the money to spend later.  They aren’t doing that.

[Roll Tide]

On 11/15/2021 at 4:26 PM, interloper said:

 

 

Yeah it was just an example of the type of "bargain" hunting I'd like to see, like how the O's signed Cruz for peanuts in 2014. 

A player like Iglesias comes to mind for me. 

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When the Orioles payroll jumped in the mid 2010s, it was because of arbitration raises.  There were some FA contracts but nothing huge.  The Orioles didn’t spend more money in 2016 because they saved a lot of money in 2012. 

Now, if the team has a budget in mind and they don’t have money on the books in any given year, that allows them to spend more to reach that budget but that’s different than saying they are saving the money to spend later.  They aren’t doing that.

Adam Jones, Cruz, Hardy, Trumbo, Markakis, Ubaldo,Davis. Those were a lot more dollars than arb raises and were all about spending once a competitive core was in place.

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Adam Jones, Cruz, Hardy, Trumbo, Markakis, Ubaldo,Davis. Those were a lot more dollars than arb raises and were all about spending once a competitive core was in place.

Jones and Markakis were pre arbitration signings.  The others had modest contracts except Davis.

But none of them were signed because they had money in a safe ready to spend.

[WI O’s Fan]

The rebuild should be transitioning into a 3 prong approach.   1. Transactional in acquiring major league players ala the Rays, 2. mid tier free agent acquisitions, and 3. prospect drafting/ promotions.  Steps 1 & 2 should focus on the next two seasons regardless of step 3.  The team can worry about redundancy once the team is competing.   The Tigers are a year ahead in the process but are making moves this off-season which the O’s should mirror.  It would be criminal to put another AAA team playing in Camden Yards in 2022.

[crawjo]

In my view, 2022 is the first year where I'm judging Elias for the on-field product. If this team loses 108 games again, it's his fault. There's no excuse for it anymore. We need upgrades to the infield and the starting rotation for sure, and then also for the bullpen. I don't think the outfield should be a concern. I'm not saying the team needs to compete right now for a playoff spot. But there needs to be progress towards that goal. 

If it were me and if we had the budget for it, which we probably don't, I would have gone aggressively after Correa. He's young, he fills a need for years to come, and he fills a serious hole in our organization. I get why that won't happen, but to me it would be similar to when the 119-loss Detroit Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez back in 2004. At some point, you have to start getting serious about fielding a competitive team. If you want this team to compete in 2023 and 2024, it is unreasonable to expect them to go from 100 losses to playoff contention that fast. This is the year we need to step up. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, crawjo said:

In my view, 2022 is the first year where I'm judging Elias for the on-field product. If this team loses 108 games again, it's his fault. There's no excuse for it anymore. We need upgrades to the infield and the starting rotation for sure, and then also for the bullpen. I don't think the outfield should be a concern. I'm not saying the team needs to compete right now for a playoff spot. But there needs to be progress towards that goal. 

If it were me and if we had the budget for it, which we probably don't, I would have gone aggressively after Correa. He's young, he fills a need for years to come, and he fills a serious hole in our organization. I get why that won't happen, but to me it would be similar to when the 119-loss Detroit Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez back in 2004. At some point, you have to start getting serious about fielding a competitive team. If you want this team to compete in 2023 and 2024, it is unreasonable to expect them to go from 100 losses to playoff contention that fast. This is the year we need to step up. 

There is no reason not to run the payroll into the 70-80M range for the 2022 season and position this team for a run at being 500 and in position to contend in 2023.  
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

There is no reason not to run the payroll into the 70-80M range for the 2022 season and position this team for a run at being 500 and in position to contend in 2023.  
 

 

I can think of a reason.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, crawjo said:

In my view, 2022 is the first year where I'm judging Elias for the on-field product. If this team loses 108 games again, it's his fault. There's no excuse for it anymore. We need upgrades to the infield and the starting rotation for sure, and then also for the bullpen. I don't think the outfield should be a concern. I'm not saying the team needs to compete right now for a playoff spot. But there needs to be progress towards that goal. 

If it were me and if we had the budget for it, which we probably don't, I would have gone aggressively after Correa. He's young, he fills a need for years to come, and he fills a serious hole in our organization. I get why that won't happen, but to me it would be similar to when the 119-loss Detroit Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez back in 2004. At some point, you have to start getting serious about fielding a competitive team. If you want this team to compete in 2023 and 2024, it is unreasonable to expect them to go from 100 losses to playoff contention that fast. This is the year we need to step up. 

Hey, we still might! 

 

[Porky]

4 hours ago, crawjo said:

In my view, 2022 is the first year where I'm judging Elias for the on-field product. If this team loses 108 games again, it's his fault. There's no excuse for it anymore. We need upgrades to the infield and the starting rotation for sure, and then also for the bullpen. I don't think the outfield should be a concern. I'm not saying the team needs to compete right now for a playoff spot. But there needs to be progress towards that goal. 

If it were me and if we had the budget for it, which we probably don't, I would have gone aggressively after Correa. He's young, he fills a need for years to come, and he fills a serious hole in our organization. I get why that won't happen, but to me it would be similar to when the 119-loss Detroit Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez back in 2004. At some point, you have to start getting serious about fielding a competitive team. If you want this team to compete in 2023 and 2024, it is unreasonable to expect them to go from 100 losses to playoff contention that fast. This is the year we need to step up. 

2022 will be Elias' fourth season. He inherited the 1st overall pick in a draft with a slam dunk prospect and a farm system that was much better than advertised, including the current top pitching prospect in baseball. He's also had the benefit of an owner who has blessed three seasons of tanking baseball to tryout every possible diamond in the rough.

So I agree, we definitely should see improvement next year. I'm not worried about W-L total, so much as seeing better performance on the field.

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Porky said:

2022 will be Elias' fourth season. He inherited the 1st overall pick in a draft with a slam dunk prospect and a farm system that was much better than advertised, including the current top pitching prospect in baseball. He's also had the benefit of an owner who has blessed three seasons of tanking baseball to tryout every possible diamond in the rough.

So I agree, we definitely should see improvement next year. I'm not worried about W-L total, so much as seeing better performance on the field.

How was the inherited farm system better than advertised? Hays and Mountcastle are about what we thought they were. Mullins has exceeded expections. Other than that it's been pretty much all disappointment, especially Diaz and also including literally every single pitcher. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How was the inherited farm system better than advertised? Hays and Mountcastle are about what we thought they were. Mullins has exceeded expections. Other than that it's been pretty much all disappointment, especially Diaz and also including literally every single pitcher. 

Grayson and Means.  Maybe Hall.

Of course you evidently think Grayson and Hall are disappointments???

[Aristotelian]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Grayson and Means.  Maybe Hall.

Of course you evidently think Grayson and Hall are disappointments???

True, I forgot about Means. Grayson and Hall are not disappointments but it's also too early to say they are better than expected. I guess you could say that Grayson has climbed the prospect rankings, not sure about Hall. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

True, I forgot about Means. Grayson and Hall are not disappointments but it's also too early to say they are better than expected. I guess you could say that Grayson has climbed the prospect rankings, not sure about Hall. 

He was the 21st pick in that draft.  I'd say he's doing better than expected.

[Hazmat]

Pirates just signed Jose Quintanilla, per MLB Trade Rumors.  I was hoping the O’s would sign him.  Still hoping for Velasquez.