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Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

waynebug

By waynebug
in Orioles Talk

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Pickles
Pickles

I'll take the under.

spiritof66
spiritof66

I think Elias started down this road believing, or acting as if he believed, that he could replicate in Baltimore what happened in Houston. I think there are some serious differences between the two s

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

When did the dork who started MLBTR all of a sudden have an opinion that mattered? That site used to be like a Drudge Report of baseball trade rumors…no original content, just compiling tidbits of inf

Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Thats a great move, and that should help at some point, it really should.

Until then, we just sit around, playing cheap and pretend to building.

I don't think they're pretending to build.

It's certainly not going as fast as any of us would want it to, I think it's something we can all agree on.  A lot of us want to see some money being spent in order to bolster this rebuild and have a more appealing ML team.  Playing cheap?  I'll agree with you there.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think they're pretending to build.

It's certainly not going as fast as any of us would want it to, I think it's something we can all agree on.  A lot of us want to see some money being spent in order to bolster this rebuild and have a more appealing ML team.  Playing cheap?  I'll agree with you there.

It just seams to be dragging on, and that was before covid hit.

Its probably just me, but dang, running out of patience.

 

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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Posted
Just now, Redskins Rick said:

It just seams to be dragging on, and that was before covid hit.

Its probably just me, but dang, running out of patience.

 

Yeah, well...it's dragging a bit.  It's been years.

IMO, 2018 happened and I think we all saw the writing on the wall.  The regime at that time wanted to see if they could coax one more year out of that core group and it just wasn't there.  I personally thought they should have traded everyone at the deadline of 2017, I think a lot of us felt that way.  The 2018 team sucked, it was so damn bad...but it forced the Orioles to recognize that it was time to tear it down, even though it was too late.  A 72 win team that year, maybe they would have tried to just keep adding players through free agency and keep it afloat.  

 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

It just seams to be dragging on, and that was before covid hit.

Its probably just me, but dang, running out of patience.

 

It’s not you.  It’s all bs all built around a made up process (made up in that it must take 4+ years) that doesn’t promise anything.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think they're pretending to build.

It's certainly not going as fast as any of us would want it to, I think it's something we can all agree on.  A lot of us want to see some money being spent in order to bolster this rebuild and have a more appealing ML team.  Playing cheap?  I'll agree with you there.

I think folks forget how bad the O's were from 1989-1992.  The 2018 team was fully as bad as the 1988 squad so we should expect a similar time table toward competitiveness.

You don't go from 1988 level bad to competing for the AL East title in one year..

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think Mike Elias will even be with the O's in 2024?   He was hired on Nov, 16th 2018.   We don't know the term but I have seen  guesses of 5 years.  So Nov 2023 his contract could be up.  He completed the tear down.  Put the analytics in place and the minors league development system. Built the international scouting development. Now has the #1 or #2 minor league system.  His prospects will be in the majors in 2022, 2023 and after.  Does he stay to see it through?

Andrew Friedman was the young successful GM of the Tampa Bat Devil Rays.   But the Big Money  Dodgers came knocking and signed him to a 5 year, 35m contract to be president of baseball operations. 

Theo Epstein was the GM for the Red Sox.  But the Cubs signed him to a  5 year, 18.5m contract to be their President.

To me Elias looks like he is on that track if things fall in place for him.   Will in be the fall of 2023 or 2024 or later I don't know but some big money teams will probably come knocking at some point.

There is no one I am aware of to take his place.  In the next year it would probably be wise for the O's to add an assistant GM to work under him.

We don’t know how long his deal is, so no point in speculating about it.    Could be four years, could be seven.   Who knows?

As to other teams hiring Elias away, I’d say that’s not likely to happen until he has some success here.  Epstein was in Boston for 9 seasons and had won two WS before he left.   Friedman was GM of the Rays for 9 years, went to a WS and made the playoffs several times on a shoestring budget.   They proved they were elite.   Elias has proved he can build a good farm system, but that’s all he’s proved.   

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, Frobby said:

We don’t know how long his deal is, so no point in speculating about it.    Could be four years, could be seven.   Who knows?

As to other teams hiring Elias away, I’d say that’s not likely to happen until he has some success here.  Epstein was in Boston for 9 seasons and had won two WS before he left.   Friedman was GM of the Rays for 9 years, went to a WS and made the playoffs several times on a shoestring budget.   They proved they were elite.   Elias has proved he can build a good farm system, but that’s all he’s proved.   

Even the farm system is dependent on high draft picks.

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Camden_yardbird Hangout Grand Counsel

Camden_yardbird

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Next year the all of the Orioles minor league facilities will simultaneously go up in flames forcing the Orioles to field a super team of roving Florida sandlot games.  At which point an unnatural swarm of locus will stop any and all games or practices, followed by an unusually early hurricane season. 

Everyone will naturally give Elias another pass on his inability to add or cultivate additional talent and the competitive window will be reset to 2030.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even the farm system is dependent on high draft picks.

You can move up a lot that way.   I don’t think you get to 1 or 2 unless some later picks are doing well.   In any event, it seems like Elias has done that part of the job well, even if he was in an advantageous position in some respects.   

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You can move up a lot that way.   I don’t think you get to 1 or 2 unless some later picks are doing well.   In any event, it seems like Elias has done that part of the job well, even if he was in an advantageous position in some respects.   

Sure, but can Elias get a farm to that level without a bunch of high picks?  Like, for instance, the Rays?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, but can Elias get a farm to that level without a bunch of high picks?  Like, for instance, the Rays?

Don’t know.   Ask me in 5-10 years if he’s still around.   Let’s not forget, though he had the advantage of the high picks, there wasn’t much depth in our existing system and the international pipeline was basically at zero.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Didn’t the Rays have the top pick for 10 years, slight overstatement aside?

That has little relevance to the strength of their system this year.   They were ranked no. 1 until Franco graduated, and are still a very good system.  

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