Some thoughts on service time manipulation and the CBA

[Frobby]

Over the years, I've taken several cracks at trying to study whether service time manipulation is a real problem:

• In December 2019, I looked at 2,394 debuts over 10 years to see if there was a big variation in the timing of debuts depending on the time of year: the "full service year" period, the "less than one full year but probably a Super Two" period, the "might be a Super Two" period and the "definitely shouldn't be a Super Two" period.   My conclusion was "Overall, I think it’s hard to look at that data and conclude that there’s a ton of service time manipulation going on, at least with respect to when players make their major league debuts."   You can find that work here: How often does service time manipulation occur? - Orioles Talk - Orioles Hangout Community
• In January 2021, I looked at the top 50 players who debuted in 2013 (by rWAR).   I found that 21 of them debuted during the period when service time potentially could have come into play as a factor.   I looked at each of the 21 cases, and concluded:  "when you drill down, there’s only 1-2 cases where there’s any sign of avoidance of a full year or service, and maybe 4-5 cases where avoidance of Super Two might be suspected.    And in my opinion, none of these cases were blatant."  That work is here: 2013: A study of service time manipulation - Orioles Talk - Orioles Hangout Community
• In March 2021, I looked at the median age of debut for the first year of each decade starting with 1950.   I also looked at the age of the 70th youngest player in each of those years, and how many players debuted either under 21 or under 22 each year.   And, I explained how some of the relevant rules that might affect debuts had changed over that 70-year period.  I found that the lowest median age of debut was 23.182, and in 2019 (which I used instead of 2020 because it was a full season) the median was 24.287.   That post, with the other details I mentioned, is here:  McGregor on Rutschman: "They're throwing it (fastballs) by him right now" - Page 10 - Orioles Talk - Orioles Hangout Community

But for that last piece, one thing that has been nagging at me is the fact that not all players are created equal.   Generally speaking, better players debut at younger ages.  u So, I decided to go back to the 50 players who debuted in 2013 who have accrued 5+ rWAR, since I had already collected their debut ages and other relevant data.   Here's a few bits I found interesting:

• The median age of debut for this group was essentially 23.000.   Billy Hamilton was 25th of 50 at 22.359, Zach Wheeler was 26th at 23.019.
• The youngest in the group was Jose Fernandez at 20.250, followed closely by Xander Bogaerts (20.323) and Jose Ramirez (20.349).   Not surprisingly, all three were foreign players and hence had been playing pro ball since age 17.
• The oldest player in this group was Danny Salazar, who was 29.202 when he debuted.   He managed a 9.3 rWAR career but was out of the league before ever reaching free agency.   Others over 26 included Matt Shoemaker (26.358), Evan Gattis (26.228), and Alex Wilson (26.129).   All three were out of baseball or had been non-tendered or waived at least once before reaching free agency.
• As expected, the higher WAR totals tend to skew to the younger players.   Of the top 25, 15 were younger than the 23.000 median for the group of 50.   
• Even though these are the 50 most successful players from that class, they have not all had smooth paths.   Seven never played in a major league game this decade.   Two tragically died (Jose Fernandez and Yordano Ventura).    Yasiel Puig, Danny Salazar, Evan Gattis, Scooter Gennett and Alex Wilson also were out.    Ten other players are still in the league, some quite successfully, but they were nontendered, DFA or waived before ever reaching six years of service: Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Pillar, Kevin Gausman, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Villar, Billy Hamilton, Matt Shoemaker, Robbie Grossman, Taijuan Walker and Derek Dietrich.   And many others were sent back to the minors after their major league debuts, initially finding it hard to gain traction:   Jose Ramirez, Marcus Semien, Jackie Bradley Jr., Carlos Martinez, James Paxton, Alex Colome, Ryan Pressly, Mike Zunino.   

So what do I make of it all?   The situation where a player debuts in the majors, never gets sent back down again, and is never nontendered, DFA or waived before he reaches 6 years of service time is pretty rare, even for good players.   Maybe 20 or 25 players a year -- about 10% of the players who debut in the majors each season -- are in that situation.   Maybe a couple of them are impacted by service time manipulation, either relating to getting an extra year before free agency or avoiding Super Two status.    It doesn't happen a ton.

As to the "age 28" idea, that would impact quite a few good players.   I will try to drill down a little further on that, but from the 2013 class, Kevin Kiermaier, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Kevin Pillar, Corey Dickerson, James Paxton, Juan Lagares, Khris Davis, Kyle Gibson and others all would have been free agents earlier than they were.   I really don't think the owners will be prepared to go to an age 28 rule; that would be too big a concession to expect.   

[Aristotelian]

I have seen that the owners proposed 29.5 and it was rejected by the players. I agree it is rare but it probably would be good if they moved to age based system... If they could agree on one.

[scOtt]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I have seen that the owners proposed 29.5 and it was rejected by the players. I agree it is rare but it probably would be good if they moved to age based system... If they could agree on one.

You know the owners are going to push for the highest age, for longer control. The players will push for the lowest. How hard either side pushes, and what they are willing to give up to get it.. might make or break this negotiation.

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I have seen that the owners proposed 29.5 and it was rejected by the players. I agree it is rare but it probably would be good if they moved to age based system... If they could agree on one.

How about a system of 6 years OR age 28? 

[AnythingO's]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

How about a system of 6 years OR age 28? 

I think you would have to stipulate it is the GREATER OF 6 yrs or 28 tp cover the extended time frame for HS or Intl prospects to get to the Majors.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

How about a system of 6 years OR age 28? 

Sure, with a salary cap.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Sure, with a salary cap.

A floor is way better than a cap.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

A floor is way better than a cap.

They pretty much have a cap now.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A floor is way better than a cap.

Or both. Anyway I wasn't advocating cap, just providing hypothetical response in a negotiation. Point being, 28 would be bad for small market teams.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Or both. Anyway I wasn't advocating cap, just providing hypothetical response in a negotiation. Point being, 28 would be bad for small market teams.

I think some would use it as an excuse...

[Frobby]

So, back to the "age 28" proposal, as it would have applied to the 50 top players who debuted in 2013.   Of those players who had enough service time to be free agents after the 2019 season, here's when they would have been free agents if free agency was granted after one's age 28 season:

• Eligible after 2015 (four years earlier than the current rule): Tanner Roark
• Eligible after 2016 (three years earlier than the current rule): Khris Davis, Kyle Gibson
• Eligible after 2017 (two years earlier than the current rule): Corey Dickerson, Juan Lagares, Jed Gyorko, Ryan Pressly
• Eligible after 2018 (one year earlier than the current rule): Anthony Rendon, Sonny Gray, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Hicks, Brad Miller, Scooter Gennett
• Eligible after 2019 season (same as the current rule): Nolan Arenado, Gerrit Cole, Yasiel Puig, Kolten Wong, Wil Myers, Alex Wood, Billy Hamilton, Marcell Ozuna
• Eligible after 2020 season (one year later than the current rule: Christian Yelich, Jonathan Schoop, Carlos Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Michael Wacha
• Eligible after 2021 season (two years later than the current rule): Xander Bogaerts

So, of 27 players who made it though 6 years of service by the end of 2019, 13 would have been free agents earlier under the age 28 rule, six by 2+ seasons.  Eight would have been unaffected.  Six would have been hurt by this rule, including one by multiple years.   Overall, that's a big loser for the owners.

But that's not even the end of it, because not everyone made it to 6 years of service by the end of 2019.   Let's go through 19 of them:

• Danny Salazar, who was out of baseball before he became a free agent, would have been one before ever reaching the majors.
• Evan Gattis and Alex Wilson, who never made it to free agency, would have been free agents after the 2015 season, after less than three years of service.   Ditto for Matt Shoemaker, who would have been a free agent four years before he finally hit the 6-years of service mark.
• Kevin Pillar, James Paxton, and Alex Colome, none of whom earned six years of service until after 2020, would have been eligible for free agency after 2017.
• Kevin Kiermaier, Jackie Bradley Jr., Cesar Hernandez, Robbie Grossman and Derek Dietrich, none of whom earned six years of service until after 2020, would have been eligible for free agency after 2018.
• Marcus Semien, Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Villar, Jake Marisnik, and Mike Zunino, who did not earn six years of service time until after the 2020 season, would have been eligible for free agency after the 2019 season.
• Jose Ramirez and Taijuan Walker, who would have been eligible for free agency after 2020 under current rules, would not have been eligibile until after the 2021 season.

Huge, huge, huge loser for the owners.

That leaves four players unaccounted for.   Hyun Jin Ryu and Hector Rondon were signed as older international free agents and therefore weren't subject to the rule.   Jose Fernandez and Yordano Ventura tragically died before either reaching age 28 or 6 years of service.   We can assume that the age 28 rule would have been bad for Fernandez if he'd lived; it probably would have cost him two years.   In Ventura's case, the age 28 rule would have been neutral, assuming he spent 2017-19 in the majors.

So, bottom line, the age 28 rule would be terrible for the owners, and they will never agree to a change that extreme.

[OriolesMagic83]

I can't see an age limit replacing service time for free agency.  Any age limit the owners will agree to, the players will automatically reject and vice versa.  Maybe the owners would agree to reduced length of service time before free agency, say 5 years in exchange for a salary cap.  Neither of those things are happening.  I'm predicting an agreement that only has cosmetic changes from previous agreement signed at the latest date that won't cancel regular season games. 

[connja]

I only hope that whatever the solution, the Orioles will have no incentive to keep AR in the minors whenever this season starts.  Let's get this party started!