Is John Means one of the top six starters in the AL East in 2022?

[wildcard]

Who you got as the top starters in the AL East?

Gausman    14-6,  2.81 ERA,  33 S,   192 IP    1.042 WHIP

Cole           16-8    3.23 ERA  30 S    181.1 IP   1.059 WHIP

Berrios       12-9    3.58 ERA  32 S     192 IP    1.095  WHIP

Eovaldi      11-9      3.75 ERA   30 S   155 IP   1.190  WHIP

Sale             5-1      3.16 ERA     9 S      42.2 IP  1.086 WHIP  Hard not to mention this guy

Means         6-9      3.62 ERA   26S     146.2 IP   1.030 WHIP

Who am I missing?

[Frobby]

Berrios, for starters.  

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Berrios, for starters.   

Yep.  Missed him.   Anyone else

[Sports Guy]

Ryu

Manoah is well on his way.

[InsideCoroner]

Manoah had a great rookie year for the Jays, I am curious to see if he gets even better or if the league catches up to him.

[Frobby]

In addition to Berrios, here are some pitchers who could be better than Means:

Toronto:

Ryu - 3.20 career ERA

Manoah - 3.22 ERA as a rookie in 20 starts

Tampa:

McLanahan - 3.43 ERA as a rookie in 25 starts

Baz - 2.02 ERA as a rookie in 3 starts 

Glasnow - 2.66 ERA in 14 starts before having TJ surgery

Boston 

Houck - 3.52 ERA in 13 starts + 5 relief appearances   

New York

Montgomery - 3.82 ERA in 2021

I don’t think any of those are sure to be better, but some of them probably will be    .  I really liked what I saw of Baz in his limited appearances.   Glashow was a stud before he got hurt, but presumably he’ll miss at least half the season and we’ll have to see if his stuff comes back.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Yea, I think the Tampa pitchers are as good or better.  Same with Manoah.

However, they need to prove it first.

Means is a good pitcher and Im Glad we have him but he doesn’t have the upside of some of these guys.  Our upside guys are GRod and Hall.

[Just Regular]

McClanahan, Baz and Rodriguez.

Houck, Pivetta and Taillon were better by xwOBA percentiles last year; Kluber and Montgomery about the same.

Means 2022 I hope we find a gear he can maintain all year like 2015-2018, but that's been elusive since he dialed up the stuff.   Like many pitchers he'd probably benefit from a lighter workload, if the team can afford it.

[Just Regular]

FWIW as of early January, NFBC ADP sees it:

Cole, Sale, Gausman, Berrios, Manoah, McClanahan, Eovaldi, Baz, Severino, Ryu, Houck, Means, Montgomery, Whitlock

Grayson was near Ryan Yarbrough and Michael Wacha more down the list.

NFBC is kind of the Big Box store of fantasy baseball, and ADP the order in which players who pay hundreds or thousands of dollars to play leagues against the like-minded choose pitchers.   On pure pitcher quality, Means would suffer in these outcomes compared to the field as Wins are part of the stats sought after.

[Moose Milligan]

Probably not. If he is, he’s on the fringe. 

[wildcard]

I have to think the Means would be better with a better defense behind him and a better offense to support him.  It will be interesting to see what difference Adley makes.

Means has been working is a much more difficult environment than some of these other starters.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have to think the Means would be better with a better defense behind him and a better offense to support him.  It will be interesting to see what difference Adley makes.

Means has been working is a much more difficult environment than some of these other starters.

Doesn’t seem like defense has been a problem for him.  His FIP is much higher than his actual ERA and his wOBA is virtually the same as his xwOBA.   He’s a fly ball pitcher and the O’s outfield defense was pretty decent.   

Like any pitcher, and especially one who allows a lot of fly balls, pitching at OPACY hurts his stats.   Last year Means had a 4.62 ERA at home, 2.84 on the road.   He was terrible at home in the short 2020 season, though much better at home than on the road in 2019.

I don’t think the Orioles offense affects much other than his W-L record.   I don’t see any reason why he’d be a better pitcher if the offense behind him were better.    
 

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Doesn’t seem like defense has been a problem for him.  His FIP is much higher than his actual ERA and his wOBA is virtually the same as his xwOBA.   He’s a fly ball pitcher and the O’s outfield defense was pretty decent.   

Like any pitcher, and especially one who allows a lot of fly balls, pitching at OPACY hurts his stats.   Last year Means had a 4.62 ERA at home, 2.84 on the road.   He was terrible at home in the short 2020 season, though much better at home than on the road in 2019.

I don’t think the Orioles offense affects much other than his W-L record.   I don’t see any reason why he’d be a better pitcher if the offense behind him were better.    
 

Defensively it would be good be be able to throw a pitch in the dirt and know its not going to go to the backstop.   Could change when and how he throws pitches.

I do believe when the O's are ahead in a game its easier for the pitchers to be aggressive.   So a better offense is important IMO.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Defensively it would be good be be able to throw a pitch in the dirt and know its not going to go to the backstop.   Could change when and how he throws pitches.

I do believe when the O's are ahead in a game its easier for the pitchers to be aggressive.   So a better offense is important IMO.

You are reaching here.  I think you are trying to manufacture reasons why Means can be a top 6 guy. 
 

No need to do any of that.  Where he ranks in the ALE is meaningless, especially on a team that doesn’t care about winning.

Means is good and we should be happy to have him.  He is our most likely AS rep going into the season.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are reaching here.  I think you are trying to manufacture reasons why Means can be a top 6 guy. 
 

No need to do any of that.  Where he ranks in the ALE is meaningless, especially on a team that doesn’t care about winning.

Means is good and we should be happy to have him.  He is our most likely AS rep going into the season.

No reaching.  Baseball is a team sport.  When there are good players around your pitchers they do better.