Free agency thread

[OriolesMagic83]

16 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Seeing 6/140 early reports, which would be same as Javier Baez on both.

Glad to see long-term commitment, ala Yankees LeMahieu, please oppose us in years 4-6 with that guy.   Imagine Red Sox hoping for the Semien 2B 2021 type experience.   Statcast OAA thought both Xander and Story near bottom of barrel shortstops last year, so guess is don't upset the incumbent tenured guy.    Xander has opt-out after this season.

Story 11.15.1992 - 112 OPS+ in 3100 PA

Xander 10.1.1992 - 115 OPS+ in 4800 PA

Both guys I feel in last 1-2 years tops before 2B/3B futures.

Our last pass through this unbalanced divisional schedule could be a doozy.   Fangraphs this morning has Red Sox 4th place, three games behind Rays, both of them well behind Jays/Yankees.

 

 

I would guess Xander chooses free agency next year and the Sox slide Story over to SS.  I'm guessing you aren't interested in Story.

Next year would be a better chance for the O's to go big.  Correa will likely be a free agent again (if he has a solid year) and Xander too.  The O's middle infield prospects should be on the verge of the majors, maybe even a couple will have debuted.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Lots of players who leave the Rockies hit better on the road once they change teams.   

Lots of guys also drop off pretty hard after leaving Colorado. 

I'd rather not be on the hook for $140 million to find out which column he falls into.

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

Did you break him down by park?  Camden was a top offensive park in the league last year.

And either way, he's still a above average defensively.

Last year's offensive stats for OPACY no longer apply thanks to the new OF wall.

And he is currently a very good defender, but he is also closing on 30 and will be 35 or 36 by the end of his contract.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Lots of guys also drop off pretty hard after leaving Colorado. 

I'd rather not be on the hook for $140 million to find out which column he falls into.

Last year's offensive stats for OPACY no longer apply thanks to the new OF wall.

And he is currently a very good defender, but he is also closing on 30 and will be 35 or 36 by the end of his contract.

The new OF will only hurt homers.  An increase in xbh May negate the overall difference.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The new OF will only hurt homers.  An increase in xbh May negate the overall difference.

My guess is it will ameliorate the effects, but not erase them.   Higher BA and more doubles/triples but not enough to erase the negative effect of fewer homers.   But, let’s see how it plays.  

[rudyrooster]

Whoa!  Why are so many of these other teams signing good players?  Acting like they wanna win.  Don't they no better? 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

Whoa!  Why are so many of these other teams signing good players?  Acting like they wanna win.  Don't they no better? 

It’s ok that the Os aren’t trying to win.. it’s all part of the plan And clearly you can’t execute the plan without losing 100+ games for several years.

[maybenxtyr]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s ok that the Os aren’t trying to win.. it’s all part of the plan And clearly you can’t execute the plan without losing 100+ games for several years.

I'm at the point where I believe this is completely ownership driven. There's really zero indication that they will ever spend.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, maybenxtyr said:

I'm at the point where I believe this is completely ownership driven. There's really zero indication that they will ever spend.

Of course it’s ownership driven.  I have been saying this the whole time.

Rebuilding is just a term used to disguise what they are really doing.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it’s ownership driven.  I have been saying this the whole time.

Rebuilding is just a term used to disguise what they are really doing.

I've never bought into the idea that Elias was in a position to dictate to ownership how things were going to go if he accepted the job.

 

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm at the point where I believe this is completely ownership driven. There's really zero indication that they will ever spend.

That isn't really true.  They had a payroll consistently in the middle of the pack and as high as 10th as late as 2017.  The committed to a complete tear down and rebuild where spending money potentially slows things down as getting top picks / draft pools several years in a row speeds up talent acquisition.  If prospects start to develop and they still refuse to up payroll that would be worrisome. Right now the payroll is consistent with what it should be with the type of rebuilding plan they've comitted to.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, geschinger said:

That isn't really true.  They had a payroll consistently in the middle of the pack and as high as 10th as late as 2017.  The committed to a complete tear down and rebuild where spending money potentially slows things down as getting top picks / draft pools several years in a row speeds up talent acquisition.  If prospects start to develop and they still refuse to up payroll that would be worrisome. Right now the payroll is consistent with what it should be with the type of rebuilding plan they've comitted to.

Who was making the decisions in 2017?

Who is making the decisions in 2022?

Why not reference what Edward Bennet Williams spent in 1986?

The Astros, the team folks like to compare the Orioles rebuild to, were spending significantly more at this point of the rebuild.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who was making the decisions in 2017?

Who is making the decisions in 2022?

Why not reference what Edward Bennet Williams spent in 1986?

Do you have an example of a team that was at the bottom of the league in payroll four years after the teardown season and then ramped up spending?

I'm pretty sure Mike Elias previous team was at least four years if not more with a bottom of the league payroll and then they ramped up spending.  And they started their teardown from a much better place than Baltimore started from.  They had a international presence already in place and had talent like Altuve already in their organization.  

The question is how long do you think a complete tear down / rebuild should take from where the Orioles started from.  The Orioles are a year behind where I thought they should be in a well executed full teardown/rebuild but there was an entire year of player development lost which makes me less concerned about that than I would have been.   

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s ok that the Os aren’t trying to win.. it’s all part of the plan And clearly you can’t execute the plan without losing 100+ games for several years.

Just subscribed to the Athletic (they are currently running a 6-month promo at $1/month) and listened to Keith Law’s podcast from last Monday.   He’s against teams not trying to win but basically said he’d make an exception in the Orioles’ case and thinks Elias is doing what he should be doing.

[Camden_yardbird]

52 minutes ago, geschinger said:

That isn't really true.  They had a payroll consistently in the middle of the pack and as high as 10th as late as 2017.  The committed to a complete tear down and rebuild where spending money potentially slows things down as getting top picks / draft pools several years in a row speeds up talent acquisition.  If prospects start to develop and they still refuse to up payroll that would be worrisome. Right now the payroll is consistent with what it should be with the type of rebuilding plan they've comitted to.

$30 million is never an acceptable payroll.

It's not an acceptable product for which you should expect to pay money for.

Its fails to use resources provided by MLB (revenue sharing or media $) to take any sort of short term risk to get ahead. 

Everyone want to follow the Tampa model but their lowest in the last 20 years is $37 million in 2003 and an average closer to $85 over that period. 

No but this is the Houston model?   Over the last 20 years their low is $49 in 2013 and an average closer to $110 over that period. 

What the Orioles are doing is not building a team...its killing a franchise.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I'm pretty sure Mike Elias previous team was at least four years if not more with a bottom of the league payroll and then they ramped up spending.  And they started their teardown from a much better place than Baltimore started from.  They had a international presence already in place and had talent like Altuve already in their organization.  

The question is how long do you think a complete tear down / rebuild should take from where the Orioles started from.  The Orioles are a year behind where I thought they should be in a well executed full teardown/rebuild but there was an entire year of player development lost which makes me less concerned about that than I would have been.   

Yea, I edited.  They were at the bottom but at the 70M range at this point.

I think they had also extended Altuve by that point.