Will Adley Rutschman be on the Opening Day roster?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Age 30, not 31.

No, he will play through his 30 year, he will available in his 31st year.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

No, he will play through his 30 year, he will available in his 31st year.

No, age 30 is the “extra” year gained if he doesn’t get a full season this year.   
Year 1 - age 24

Yesr 2 - age 25

Year 3 - age 26

Year 4 - age 27

Year 5 - age 28

Year 6 - age 29

Year 7 (FA or “extra” year) - age 30

 

[Orange]

9 hours ago, seak05 said:

From what I’ve seen draft pick is after first round but before second. Exact position is dependent on other factors.

I don’t think the wording has been changed @Orangebasically has it correct 

So service time manipulation issues could possibly be worse? Crazy that they messed it up so badly. Why not just make a year a year regardless of how much of it a player plays in the majors?

[seak05]

47 minutes ago, Orange said:

So service time manipulation issues could possibly be worse? Crazy that they messed it up so badly. Why not just make a year a year regardless of how much of it a player plays in the majors?

A non-contending team has very little incentive to bring up a top prospect before they’re ready to contend (unless the court rulings started to change). The fix would have probably been an age line ie any player who reaches 29 or 30 & hasn’t yet been a free agent. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by seak05

[seak05]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He doesn’t have to win it to get the service time.  Wander was high in the voting last year and played half or so of the season.  You don’t wait until July. Just doesn’t make sense.

Wander was 3rd. Under the new system, he wouldn't get a full year of service time because he wasn't 1st or 2nd (and he didn't play in enough games). If the Rays had had him on the opening day roster, they would receive a draft pick, and he'd have the year of service time. As it is, for service time purposes this will be his first year, although it's moot because of the contract. 

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Wander was 3rd. Under the new system, he wouldn't get a full year of service time because he wasn't 1st or 2nd (and he didn't play in enough games). If the Rays had had him on the opening day roster, they would receive a draft pick, and he'd have the year of service time. As it is, for service time purposes this will be his first year, although it's moot because of the contract. 

This is one of the layers of Game Theory to tease out.   Does it affect early extensions?   If Wander is MVP, I'm a little fuzzy if the Rays still enjoy whatever the draft pick bonus is since "pre-arb" technically no longer governs his 2022 salary.    If Wander is already past his draft pick bonus days by virtue of debuting mid-year, same concept could apply to Witt, Torkelson, Rutschman...heck, even Grayson Rodriguez.   Do the players themselves still get "pre-arb" codified bonuses if they sell some of their FA years before or very soon after their debuts?

That factor is probably something the representation of any young blue chip would want clarity on for talks.

If the draft pick bonus carrot is big enough to incentivize getting the best players on the field like the MLBPA wants, maybe there's even a sliver of hope for Orange Carpet Grayson.

[seak05]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This is one of the layers of Game Theory to tease out.   Does it affect early extensions?   If Wander is MVP, I'm a little fuzzy if the Rays still enjoy whatever the draft pick bonus is since "pre-arb" technically no longer governs his 2022 salary.    If Wander is already past his draft pick bonus days by virtue of debuting mid-year, same concept could apply to Witt, Torkelson, Rutschman...heck, even Grayson Rodriguez.   Do the players themselves still get "pre-arb" codified bonuses if they sell some of their FA years before or very soon after their debuts?

That factor is probably something the representation of any young blue chip would want clarity on for talks.

If the draft pick bonus carrot is big enough to incentivize getting the best players on the field like the MLBPA wants, maybe there's even a sliver of hope for Orange Carpet Grayson.

Using fangraphs pick value the 31st pick is around 1.5 WAR vs Adley's age 31 season (then you have to factor in that as a 3rd year arbitration player Adley will cost more, plus time under control etc. 

[connja]

whether he is or not I think the chaces are higher with this CBA.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 minutes ago, connja said:

whether he is or not I think the chaces are higher with this CBA.

I still voted "no" but I agree that the chances of him being a Day 1 call up are significantly higher now than they would have been under the old CBA.

[Orange]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I still voted "no" but I agree that the chances of him being a Day 1 call up are significantly higher now than they would have been under the old CBA.

Why? Because we might get a draft pick?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, Orange said:

Why? Because we might get a draft pick?

That helps, but I really meant the new rule that guys who place high in ROY voting get a full year of service time regardless of when they were called up. 

[Orange]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That helps, but I really meant the new rule that guys who place high in ROY voting get a full year of service time regardless of when they were called up. 

Why not keep him down until July to keep the extra year?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Orange said:

Why not keep him down until July to keep the extra year?

They could, but it doesn't look like Adley really has much of anything left to prove in the minors and we don't presently have a clearcut Major League caliber catcher in the organization, so it would be one of the most blatant and egregious examples of service time manipulation in recent memory.

Again though, I voted "no" on the poll. 

[Orange]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

They could, but it doesn't look like Adley really has much of anything left to prove in the minors and we don't presently have a clearcut Major League caliber catcher in the organization, so it would be one of the most blatant and egregious examples of service time manipulation in recent memory.

Again though, I voted "no" on the poll. 

So essentially we give up a year of team control so we don’t look bad? I’m genuinely trying to understand this.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Orange said:

So essentially we give up a year of team control so we don’t look bad? I’m genuinely trying to understand this.  

You seem to have missed the intense scrutiny service time manipulation has received over the few months  

And again, I do not think he will be on the OD roster anyway.