Joey Ortiz 2022

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Jeremy Pena is a good example of what Ortiz good be. When I watch Pena, i see a lot of Ortiz in him. Pena only had 133 PAs under his belt when the Astros made him their starting shortstop while letting their superstar SS go.

I don't think there is any doubt Ortiz can be as good as Pena both offensively and defensively if he's given the job next year. 

Not any doubt?  That’s too optimistic a take in my book.  But if I thought that, I’d certainly be giving Ortiz the job. 

[Aglets]

I don't have any doubt that Ortiz COULD be as good as A Rod.

I mean......it may not happen at all.

But i don't doubt that there is some probability he can be on that level.  

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not any doubt?  That’s too optimistic a take in my book.  But if I thought that, I’d certainly be giving Ortiz the job. 

When I look at Pena's minor league numbers and when I watch him hit and play defense with Astros this year, I see Ortiz as a very similar player. Now he may not hit as many home runs because of playing half his game in Camden Yards instead of the bandbox of Minute Maid park, but I do see a guy who could make that jump like Pena and find success right away.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When I look at Pena's minor league numbers and when I watch him hit and play defense with Astros this year, I see Ortiz as a very similar player. Now he may not hit as many home runs because of playing half his game in Camden Yards instead of the bandbox of Minute Maid park, but I do see a guy who could make that jump like Pena and find success right away.

I agree there’s a solid chance for that to happen.  I just got stuck on the “no doubt” part.  I’d be happy for us to take our chances on Ortiz next year and see what we can get for Mateo this winter.  

It was suggested that other teams may not value Mateo as a 3 WAR SS yet, so we should hold on to him.  But if we think Ortiz is better and should be playing over him, I don’t think we enhance Mateo’s trade value by reducing his role and playing time.  So I’d look to trade him now.  Obviously, if we can’t get anything decent in exchange, we don’t need to trade him now, but I’d be shopping him pretty aggressively.  It would be nice if he won the Gold Glove; that might get some extra attention, even though his fielding kind of is what it is regardless of what the award-givers say.  

 

[nvpacchi]

On 9/12/2022 at 7:41 AM, nvpacchi said:

RE Ortiz making top 100 lists, I think he will get consideration.  I imagine he'll make Keith Law's list for sure.  Additionally all of @RZNJ points regarding Ortiz, from the age, draft status, etc.  also can apply to another rookie that just made the leap and has had success at the MLB level, Jeremy Pena.

Pena was always a plus glove plus speed prospect with room to grow into average power.  Pena also came from a mid major college, similar draft spot to Ortiz, and debuted in the MLB at the age of 24.  Only difference is Pena never showed the discipline or plate skills that Ortiz has demonstrated the last 3 months.

AND Pena was 24th on Fangraphs list, 72nd at BA, and 16th at Baseball Prospectus.  I think people always thought that Pena would grow into more power once he grew up, but Ortiz is now combining plate skills, that Pena never had with power numbers, that Pena only demonstrated in the band box at Sugar Land.

No knocks on Pena, but Pena and Ortiz's trajectories feel so similar that if prospect aggregators processes are consistent Ortiz should climb in a similar manner than Pena.

just reposting this from earlier in the year

The trajectory Ortiz is on is eerily similar to Pena, even down to being drafted in a later round from a mid-major.  Now Ortiz even has some top 100 love to close the gap even further.

[Just Regular]

B-Ref has Jeremy Pena 6-0, 202, and Joey Ortiz 5-11, 175.

Mike Elias' "tooled-up" Jordan Westburg is 6-3, 203....I'd be curious to hear Elias' answer whether Ortiz is tooled up.

I agree Pena and Ortiz's backgrounds and performances have a lot in common, but their paths to them are pretty different.    Pena for me is kind of like if Ryan Mountcastle was a good shortstop.     Ortiz and Pena are I think night and day swing and miss wise, but I don't believe Ortiz can impact the ball anywhere near how Pena can.

I'll volunteer I'm a skeptic when little guys hit the weights and slug in the minors, and particularly so if a shoulder goes on a swing somewhere along the track.     As always I hope he gets like five World Series MVP's, but I think he's back at Norfolk most of next year if we keep Mateo.     I don't think either Westburg or Ortiz would be well served by a job share if they both make the team.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

B-Ref has Jeremy Pena 6-0, 202, and Joey Ortiz 5-11, 175.

Mike Elias' "tooled-up" Jordan Westburg is 6-3, 203....I'd be curious to hear Elias' answer whether Ortiz is tooled up.

I agree Pena and Ortiz's backgrounds and performances have a lot in common, but their paths to them are pretty different.    Pena for me is kind of like if Ryan Mountcastle was a good shortstop.     Ortiz and Pena are I think night and day swing and miss wise, but I don't believe Ortiz can impact the ball anywhere near how Pena can.

I'll volunteer I'm a skeptic when little guys hit the weights and slug in the minors, and particularly so if a shoulder goes on a swing somewhere along the track.     As always I hope he gets like five World Series MVP's, but I think he's back at Norfolk most of next year if we keep Mateo.     I don't think either Westburg or Ortiz would be well served by a job share if they both make the team.

B-Ref has Felix Bautista 6-5, 190.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

B-Ref has Jeremy Pena 6-0, 202, and Joey Ortiz 5-11, 175.

Mike Elias' "tooled-up" Jordan Westburg is 6-3, 203....I'd be curious to hear Elias' answer whether Ortiz is tooled up.

I agree Pena and Ortiz's backgrounds and performances have a lot in common, but their paths to them are pretty different.    Pena for me is kind of like if Ryan Mountcastle was a good shortstop.     Ortiz and Pena are I think night and day swing and miss wise, but I don't believe Ortiz can impact the ball anywhere near how Pena can.

I'll volunteer I'm a skeptic when little guys hit the weights and slug in the minors, and particularly so if a shoulder goes on a swing somewhere along the track.     As always I hope he gets like five World Series MVP's, but I think he's back at Norfolk most of next year if we keep Mateo.     I don't think either Westburg or Ortiz would be well served by a job share if they both make the team.

You should probably take a look at Pena's power numbers in the minors and compare them to Ortiz this year. Then get back to me about impacting the baseball.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You should probably take a look at Pena's power numbers in the minors and compare them to Ortiz this year. Then get back to me about impacting the baseball.

Not only did Ortiz have a .194 ISO on the year, but it was .258 from July 1 onward. I’d probably put more stock in the full season number when assessing what to hope for when he reaches the majors, but if you buy that his first half was impacted by his recovery from surgery and that the second half is what his ceiling looks like, then whoa!

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not only did Ortiz have a .194 ISO on the year, but it was .258 from July 1 onward. I’d probably put more stock in the full season number when assessing what to hope for when he reaches the majors, but if you buy that his first half was impacted by his recovery from surgery and that the second half is what his ceiling looks like, then whoa!

You're coming around Frob.   What Ortiz did for 3 months is kind of amazing.    Saying that's the real Ortiz and not the guy from the first 3 months, using the shoulder surgery excuse, doesn't sound like drinking the Kool-Aid to me.  It makes sense.   Even taking into account that it's nearly impossible to keep hitting like that, the upgrade in ML pitching, and the wall, it's still hard not to imagine a pretty good hitter.    As much as the LF might hurt him, this kid loves to take the outside fastball to RF and he'll do very well in that regard.

[wildcard]

Elias has been pretty consistent about wanting to see a player dominate at a level for 200 PA before promoting him.  So far Oritz has 115 PA at AAA.  And we have not seen Ortiz hit well in April yet since he was signed.  In the cold.  He still has some things to prove before he gets his shot at the majors.  Even with a good ST.

It may be closer to July than April before Elias thinks he has earned his  promotion to the majors.   July is when trades happen.   Injuries will occur in the 1st half.  To who and how serious is anyones guess.

I think we see Henderson, Mateo, Westburg, Urias and Vavra ahead of Ortiz for a spot with the O's for opening day.  Because they have earned it.  By mid season its anyone guess who is rising and who is not.

 

[waroriole]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias has been pretty consistent about wanting to see a player dominate at a level for 200 PA before promoting him.  So far Oritz has 115 PA at AAA.  And we have not seen Ortiz hit well in April yet since he was signed.  In the cold.  He still has some things to prove before he gets his shot at the majors.  Even with a good ST.

It may be closer to July than April before Elias thinks he has earned his  promotion to the majors.   July is when trades happen.   Injuries will occur in the 1st half.  To who and how serious is anyones guess.

I think we see Henderson, Mateo, Westburg, Urias and Vavra ahead of Ortiz for a spot with the O's for opening day.  Because they have earned it.  By mid season its anyone guess who is rising and who is not.

 

You’re the only person that’s said anything about 200 ABs. Did Elias say that once before? Where do you get that?

[RZNJ]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias has been pretty consistent about wanting to see a player dominate at a level for 200 PA before promoting him.  So far Oritz has 115 PA at AAA.  And we have not seen Ortiz hit well in April yet since he was signed.  In the cold.  He still has some things to prove before he gets his shot at the majors.  Even with a good ST.

It may be closer to July than April before Elias thinks he has earned his  promotion to the majors.   July is when trades happen.   Injuries will occur in the 1st half.  To who and how serious is anyones guess.

I think we see Henderson, Mateo, Westburg, Urias and Vavra ahead of Ortiz for a spot with the O's for opening day.  Because they have earned it.  By mid season its anyone guess who is rising and who is not.

 

How many Aprils are you basing that on?

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, waroriole said:

You’re the only person that’s said anything about 200 ABs. Did Elias say that once before? Where do you get that?

It’s pretty accurate, if you look at the promotions Elias has made at most levels.   Interestingly, one of the exceptions in 2021 was Ortiz, promoted from high A to AA after only 89 PA.   But in terms of promotions to the majors:

Rutschman 238 PA in AAA

Henderson 295

Vavra 208

Stowers 500

McKenna, on the other hand, never played AAA before he was in the majors.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

The April thing is pretty silly.  They didn’t even play minor league baseball in April in 2021.   When they started the season, he did fine and was promoted after 19 games.  I don’t believe Elias is going to make any decisions about Ortiz based on past April performance.  

Edited October 21, 2022 by Frobby