Joey Ortiz 2022

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think Hall and Mayo did enough this year to stay in a distinct tier. 

I think my top 10 would be Gunnar, Grayson, Holiday, Cowser, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Hall, Stowers, Mayo, Povich

I'd absolutely trade Hall for veteran pitching before any of Norby, Westburg, and Ortiz right now. 

I suspect you would/could trade Hall for the same reason I have Hall where I do.  Yes, there's risk (i.e. the reason he's questionable).  But yes, there's top end talent (i.e. the reason he's of interest to other teams).  The risk factor and immense upside are what put him in his tier with Mayo.  I definitely don't see that the upside has lowered for either.  I can see an argument for the risk factor of Hall (not Mayo) having increased a bit.  But IMO, it's not enough to outweigh the upside.

Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby have certainly been raising their floors/ceilings and/or improving their risk factors this year!  Easy to see why they would move up lists.  It's certainly tough to move around at the top of this list!  And how any trade can't just be focused on where a guy falls on the O's list.

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I suspect you would/could trade Hall for the same reason I have Hall where I do.  Yes, there's risk (i.e. the reason he's questionable).  But yes, there's top end talent (i.e. the reason he's of interest to other teams).  The risk factor and immense upside are what put him in his tier with Mayo.  I definitely don't see that the upside has lowered for either.  I can see an argument for the risk factor of Hall (not Mayo) having increased a bit.  But IMO, it's not enough to outweigh the upside.

Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby have certainly been raising their floors/ceilings and/or improving their risk factors this year!  Easy to see why they would move up lists.  It's certainly tough to move around at the top of this list!  And how any trade can't just be focused on where a guy falls on the O's list.

I hope to be proven wrong but actual performance matters to me. To me Hall has lowered his floor this year which is why his stock has fallen in my mind. Admittedly it is close, which is why I see them all as one big second tier.

[RZNJ]

I don't think we saw Hall at his best.  That may seem obvious but he was said to occasionally hit triple digits as a starter and I think I saw him mostly topping out at 97 (maybe 98) as a reliever.    I'm not trading Hall unless I'm getting a young starter back.  I mentioned Nick Lodolo months ago so that's the type of arm I'd package Hall and others for.    I still think the best option is just to sign a very good starter in FA and hold onto the prospects a bit longer.    I can still see Stowers, Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby all being part of next year's team at some point.    I could see one of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby going in a deal but that might not be until next July.

Edited September 30, 2022 by RZNJ

[Chaka Garcia]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think we saw Hall at his best.  That may seem obvious but he was said to occasionally hit triple digits as a starter and I think I saw him mostly topping out at 97 (maybe 98) as a reliever.    I'm not trading Hall unless I'm getting a young starter back.  I mentioned Nick Lodolo months ago so that's the type of arm I'd package Hall and others for.    I still think the best option is just to sign a very good starter in FA and hold onto the prospects a bit longer.    I can still see Stowers, Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby all being part of next year's team at some point.    I could see one of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby going in a deal but that might not be until next July.

I have a different opinion of DL Hall, if a club values him enough (paired with another young player) to give us an upside pitcher like Seattle’s Kirby or Cincinnati’s Lolodo - I won’t hesitate. He’s 24 years old, has never gone 100 innings, history of injury and control issues. We need to stop falling in love with our players and look at them objectively.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Chaka Garcia

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I have a different opinion of DL Hall, if a club values him enough (paired with another young player) to give us an upside pitcher like Seattle’s Kirby or Cincinnati’s Lolodo - I won’t hesitate. He’s 24 years old, has never gone 100 innings, history of injury and control issues. We need to stop falling in love with our players and look at them objectively.

How is that different than what I said?    I said I would include him in a package for a young pitcher.    I'd be less inclined to package young players for a pitcher with two years of service time or a player like that.

[Chaka Garcia]

26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How is that different than what I said?    I said I would include him in a package for a young pitcher.    I'd be less inclined to package young players for a pitcher with two years of service time or a player like that.

My bad - I half read your post and only saw “we have not seen the best of Hall”.  It seems we had the same thoughts after completely reading. Sorry

[Sports Guy]

Looks like FG will have Ortiz in its top 100.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat/
 

Im not as surprised by FG having him.  Will be very surprised if BA and/or MLB have him. 

[wildcard]

14 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I'm on the exact opposite side of this, I would trade Norby or Westburg out before Hall, Ortiz might cause a pause for me as he plays a premium position. I'm not sure Norby ends up playing an average 2B and Westburg isn't going to be a major league SS. We need pitching, and Hall has had some growing pains this year, but I think he can still be a premium arm.

I could see Norby being the DH when the O's trade Santander in mid 2023.   The O's need offense and Norby seems like he can really hit.

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I have a different opinion of DL Hall, if a club values him enough (paired with another young player) to give us an upside pitcher like Seattle’s Kirby or Cincinnati’s Lolodo - I won’t hesitate. He’s 24 years old, has never gone 100 innings, history of injury and control issues. We need to stop falling in love with our players and look at them objectively.

I don't think Hall will be traded.  He will probably go to Norfolk to work on his control as a starter to begin 2023.  Then be called up sometime in the 1st half.  JMO. 

[Chaka Garcia]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Looks like FG will have Ortiz in its top 100.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat/
 

Im not as surprised by FG having him.  Will be very surprised if BA and/or MLB have him. 

How accurate are FG prospect lists versus MLB pipeline or BA?

[joelala]

3 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

How accurate are FG prospect lists versus MLB pipeline or BA?

They’re all just opinions. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

How accurate are FG prospect lists versus MLB pipeline or BA?

Not sure what you mean by accurate?

I think FG uses different methods.

[Chaka Garcia]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure what you mean by accurate?

I think FG uses different methods.

Wrong choice of words - how in-tune are they with folks who watch or scout them regularly.  Meaning not having prospects in top 5 due to draft selection after a year worth of data - See Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

Wrong choice of words - how in-tune are they with folks who watch or scout them regularly.  Meaning not having prospects in top 5 due to draft selection after a year worth of data - See Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin.

I have always gotten the impression that they go with a lot of the same hype at first but then they tend to put more emphasis on performance, especially immediate performance.

Not surprised to see them go Ortiz because of this.  I would be surprised to see BA and MlB do it.  They tend to just go on hype and things like that more so.

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I have always gotten the impression that they go with a lot of the same hype at first but then they tend to put more emphasis on performance, especially immediate performance.

Not surprised to see them go Ortiz because of this.  I would be surprised to see BA and MlB do it.  They tend to just go on hype and things like that more so.

I really like Longenhagen.   He is the most inclined to give detailed explanations for his views on players.   Doesn’t mean he’s right but at least you know why he rates a player the way he does.