Ryan Mountcastle 2022

[NCRaven]

I’m on record.  Total man crush on Mountcastle.  Think he’s going to be a beast.  He’s maturing as a hitter.  May never walk a ton, but he has shown some improvement there with more experience.

[LookinUp]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Both are players you like to have…until they get expensive. Mountcastle should be a trade candidate in 2-3 years.  Hopefully he is hitting well and you can trade him for a good package.  

Agree. The hope of course is that he becomes such a valuable hitter that he's worth paying even as a 1B/DH, but you have to be a bona fide stud to be that guy. They do exist though.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Agree. The hope of course is that he becomes such a valuable hitter that he's worth paying even as a 1B/DH, but you have to be a bona fide stud to be that guy. They do exist though.

Mayo may be that guy.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mayo may be that guy.

True, though you still hope for more positional upside from Mayo. Honestly, I'd wager he settles in at 1B at this point, but I'm hoping!

[Aristotelian]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Both are players you like to have…until they get expensive. Mountcastle should be a trade candidate in 2-3 years.  Hopefully he is hitting well and you can trade him for a good package.  

We probably should have traded Mancini before he got expensive. If we have a good replacement I would consider moving Mountcastle earlier. Of course you need to find a trade partner to get return. 

[Big Mac]

The Trumbo comparisons aren't bad, but I do think Mountcastle is going to end up hitting for average better than Trumbo.  Trumbo hit .275 in the minors compared to Mountcastle's .295.  Because of this, I think Mountcastle can outdo Trumbo's .302 career OBP by a good bit. 

I think Mountcastle is generally going to be a .275/.330/.500 guy, with some peak years better than that. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

So far career OPS is similar, .804 to .812 slightly in favor of Mountcastle. However, if you exclude Mountcastle's first half last year he may be something more like a .900 OPS guy. Neither has great OBP. If I had to guess, seems like Mountcastle is trending up whereas Mancini is already starting to trend down so I would go with Mountcastle. 

I don’t see Mountcastle as a .900 OPS guy unless he changes stripes and becomes more selective.   But I’ll give him a 60/40 shot at being a better hitter than Mancini over his career.   For one thing, he got started in the majors at an earlier age.  

[interloper]

I like how Mounty has looked in spring so far. He just seems to have a good idea at the plate, looks like a professional major league hitter. Hitting the ball hard. I think he's going to have a nice season. 

[yark14]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

I like how Mounty has looked in spring so far. He just seems to have a good idea at the plate, looks like a professional major league hitter. Hitting the ball hard. I think he's going to have a nice season. 

Unless he gets hurt, I guarantee he hits 40+ home runs this season.

[BohKnowsBmore]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He is a relatively free swinger who doesn’t walk much.  He is very similar to Adam Jones but at first.  Good player.  Glad we have him but no need to make him out to be more than he is.

 

 

I absolutely loved Adam Jones as a player, but this comparison doesn't really hold up. Thus far, Mountcastle has a 7.2% BB% in the majors. Adam Jones's career number was 4.5% and he never had a single season above 6.9% (Mountcastle was at 7.0% in 2021, 7.9% in an abbreviated 2020).

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I absolutely loved Adam Jones as a player, but this comparison doesn't really hold up. Thus far, Mountcastle has a 7.2% BB% in the majors. Adam Jones's career number was 4.5% and he never had a single season above 6.9% (Mountcastle was at 7.0% in 2021, 7.9% in an abbreviated 2020).

But Jones was usually a 280ish hitter.  Not sure Mountcastle will be that guy. I think they ultimately end up at around the same OBP and slugging numbers. 

[Big Mac]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But Jones was usually a 280ish hitter.  Not sure Mountcastle will be that guy. I think they ultimately end up at around the same OBP and slugging numbers. 

They hit for similar average in the minors, with Mountcastle having the slight edge at .295 to .291.  I think it's reasonable to expect Mountcastle to hit for a similar or even better BA than Jones did. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

They hit for similar average in the minors, with Mountcastle having the slight edge at .295 to .291.  I think it's reasonable to expect Mountcastle to hit for a similar or even better BA than Jones did. 

Perhaps..the difference is that players are sacrificing BA for power nowadays.  I would agree that he is capable of hitting as well as Jones but he has to show he can do it first.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Unless he gets hurt, I guarantee he hits 40+ home runs this season.

I’d take that bet.   The new dimensions in LF are going to hurt him.  Last year he had 22 homers at home, 11 on the road.   That short fence in LF really helped him.  

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d take that bet.   The new dimensions in LF are going to hurt him.  Last year he had 22 homers at home, 11 on the road.   That short fence in LF really helped him.  

I've seen the overlays, it wasn't that bad.