Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Same argument we've had about Baumler and Mayo.   We signed those guys to comp round or 2nd round money.   Any team could have signed them in the 2nd round if they thought they were that good.    Apparently Gunnar had a number and any team could have drafted him wherever the 2.3M slot was and signed him.    I don't think anyone said he was an argument for the overslot strategy.   But he was an overslot where they took him.

I don't think it's quite the same since with Gunnar we are talking about the paying slot 31.5 money to the 42nd pick.

With Mayo they gave pick 42.5 money to the pick 103 and to Baumler they gave 49 money to pick 133.

First round board is pretty tight and I think teams often have a pretty narrow band of players they are talking to.

So while yes, he was an overslot it really isn't that comparable to Baumler and Mayo.

Just like while AR signed an underslot deal he wasn't an underslot pick.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t see anyone arguing that Gunnar was an example of going underslot on the first pick to get overslot players later.  You are reading too much into what btdart20 wrote.  He just said he was an overslot signing, which of course, he was.    I’d say he’s a good argument for, if you see a player who has slipped to the second round who you feel was a first round talent, grab him even if you have to pay him a little extra.   

Sure, I agree, we all agree, on that.

 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's quite the same since with Gunnar we are talking about the paying slot 31.5 money to the 42nd pick.

With Mayo they gave pick 42.5 money to the pick 103 and to Baumler they gave 49 money to pick 133.

First round board is pretty tight and I think teams often have a pretty narrow band of players they are talking to.

So while yes, he was an overslot it really isn't that comparable to Baumler and Mayo.

Just like while AR signed an underslot deal he wasn't an underslot pick.

Eh.   Could any team have picked Henderson with pick 20-31 and signed him for 2.3M or more?

Actually, as you point out, any team could have taken him before the Orioles did and done the same thing the Orioles did, BUT they didn't.

Baumler and Mayo were in a 5 round draft so money was even tighter.   You couldn't do those senior 10K signings in rounds 6-10 and pick up some extra slot money.

[Just Regular]

I dunno...if I turn the tint up to the orangest I might argue Gunnar's relationship with Orioles Player Development these 36 months has been fundamental to bringing him where he is today, and more than the SEC could ever have done.

At least if I'm Elias I'm singing that song to Druw, Termarr, Holliday, Collier, etc.

[justD]

Here's a couple more lines that I thought were interesting from the BP article @Just Regular mentioned a few pages back. 

Quote

Here’s his year-over-year improvements in some key rates:

	DRC+	wRC+	BB%	K%
2021	100	120	12.1%	30.9%
2022 (through 6/21)	132	178	20.6%	18.0%

 

 

Quote

This year, Henderson’s swing decisions have improved from good for his age to incredible. That itself eliminates some bad swings, and better pitch selection leads to better quality of contact. Along with that, he’s gained a lot of utility in where he can get the barrel in the zone, and is now fighting off or even driving a whole lot of the remaining pitches he struggled with as recently as last year. The increased barrel control hasn’t come at the cost of any of his power, and he was already doing a good amount of damage when he made contact. These skills interact with each other quite a bit, and the sum of all of them has made Henderson a much more formidable offensive prospect.

I can’t recall a prospect who nearly halved his strikeout rate and nearly doubled his walk rate in such a short period of time. Henderson went from a guy striking out enough that it was a red flag, to walking more than he’s whiffing. When a prospect displays new skills all of a sudden, especially over a small period of time, the immediate question is whether it’s sustainable. Many times a player will give back what look like real gains over a short period of time, and if we’re too reactionary to new information we’ll end up picking up too much noise and not enough signal.

But this looks real to me. And if it is, well, I started the column by pointing out that I think he’s the best prospect in the minors, so…

~Jarrett Seidler

Link to article

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's not an argument for an overslot strategy.

AR was the consensus BPA and Gunnar wasn't someone who dropped a significant degree due to signing concerns.

He was literally one pick out of the first round.

Every team should have the ability to sign a Gunnar.

 

It’s evidence that more money can in fact convince a potential “1st rounder” to forego college and go pro.  Basically buying another first rounder in one draft. The money had to shift from other picks though (making them under-slot).

SG mentioned we could go BPA and still get an under slot guy a while back.  This is what he was talking about.  

[sportsfan8703]

If it wasn’t for that 6-14 start(w/o AR btw) I think we’d be watching Gunnar and Westburg in the O’s infield. 
 

They’re having incredible years. 

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Of course, Billy Rowell was super young for his draft class.   Fat lot of good that did us!

Manny turned out okay though…

 

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I dunno...if I turn the tint up to the orangest I might argue Gunnar's relationship with Orioles Player Development these 36 months has been fundamental to bringing him where he is today, and more than the SEC could ever have done.

At least if I'm Elias I'm singing that song to Druw, Termarr, Holliday, Collier, etc.

I feel terrible for the dozens of prospects with a decent chance to become major leaguers who were brought into the Orioles Organization from the mid-80's until Elias got here.

If they weren't blue chip, the odds were significantly against them for much of that time.

[Just Regular]

37 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

 

I feel terrible for the dozens of prospects with a decent chance to become major leaguers who were brought into the Orioles Organization from the mid-80's until Elias got here.

If they weren't blue chip, the odds were significantly against them for much of that time.

Lots to parse in the Buck quote about Manny and how "you can't mess the good ones up", huh?

[Tony-OH]

On 6/23/2022 at 10:48 AM, Frobby said:

I feel that we as Orioles fans deserve a morale-boosting development like this.   If Henderson turns out to be an excellent major league starting position player, that is a game-changer for us.  

I feel like as an Orioles fan I'm always waiting for the pother shoe to drop because we're not allowed nice things.

Saying that, Gunnar has been extraordinarily impressive this year and may be the best prospect in our system right now, and I'm including Rutschman.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

 

I feel terrible for the dozens of prospects with a decent chance to become major leaguers who were brought into the Orioles Organization from the mid-80's until Elias got here.

If they weren't blue chip, the odds were significantly against them for much of that time.

The odds were against most non blue-chip players in every organization. I know what you are trying to say, and while this organization was behind the times, the ultra modern computer integrated Elias regime gave away Yaz and has yet to produce an impact all-star player that was not in the system at the time they arrived.

Now, can Rutschman and Henderson change that? We certainly hope so.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

The odds were against most non blue-chip players in every organization. I know what you are trying to say, and while this organization was behind the times, the ultra modern computer integrated Elias regime gave away Yaz and has yet to produce an impact all-star player that was not in the system at the time they arrived.

Now, can Rutschman and Henderson change that? We certainly hope so.

To be fair we are talking 3 drafts and one year when there were no minor league games.  The fact that they haven't produced an impact all-star player is understandable.    Rustchman, Henderson, and I would add Westburg as a possible impact player.     Tougher to say on Stowers, Kjerstad, and Cowser and some of the others at this point.    A year can make a big difference.  Just ask Henderson.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I feel like as an Orioles fan I'm always waiting for the pother shoe to drop because we're not allowed nice things.

Saying that, Gunnar has been extraordinarily impressive this year and may be the best prospect in our system right now, and I'm including Rutschman.

Obviously there is a long way to go and we need to see more but if you are talking about right now, Gunnar IS the best prospect imo…over Adley and Grayson.

He turns 21 in less than a week.  He is 3.5 years younger than Adley and putting up better numbers than he did while increasing the odds that he can stay at SS this year.

It’s amazing the difference between this year and last year.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

To be fair we are talking 3 drafts and one year when there were no minor league games.  The fact that they haven't produced an impact all-star player is understandable.    Rustchman, Henderson, and I would add Westburg as a possible impact player.     Tougher to say on Stowers, Kjerstad, and Cowser and some of the others at this point.    A year can make a big difference.  Just ask Henderson.

Go back and reread my statement and tell me where I'm wrong. 

[Tony-OH]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously there is a long way to go and we need to see more but if you are talking about right now, Gunnar IS the best prospect imo…over Adley and Grayson.

He turns 21 in less than a week.  He is 3.5 years younger than Adley and putting up better numbers than he did while increasing the odds that he can stay at SS this year.

It’s amazing the difference between this year and last year.

Yep, which is why I'm inclined to name him the best prospect in the system even including Rutschman.

Saying that, I still have some concerns about him hitting lefties and would like to see that even out a bit. He's been drawing more walks which has helped his OPS climb, but not a lot of loud contact against lefties. 

And despite his athleticism, I don't think he's long for SS as the throwing accuracy and hands will contribute to a few more errors then you would like from an everyday SS. Plus I think he's going to just end up a bit too bit and while he can play there, he'll be a plus defender at 3B.