Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not a real SS.  It’s like calling Valaika versatile. 

No one is mistaking him for a SS or CF, like Jones for example.

There isn’t even much talk that he could play the COF spots and no talk of third.  He doesn’t have the arm for it.

 

If he can play 2B who cares if he can play CO?

What kind of moron is going to take a 2B and stick him in LF?

Now if he can't stick at 2B that's obviously a problem and whomever is drafting him should be sure he can stick at second.

But if he's a second baseman, that's fine.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If he can play 2B who cares if he can play CO?

What kind of moron is going to take a 2B and stick him in LF?

Now if he can't stick at 2B that's obviously a problem and whomever is drafting him should be sure he can stick at second.

But if he's a second baseman, that's fine.

The point is, no one is raving about attributes like his arm, speed or athleticism. 
 

Of course you play him at second but what if that doesn’t work?  What if the defense at second ends up being just ok?  That’s the issue I have with him (well one of them).  Being basically a second baseman or a DH isn’t a guy you take #1.  #5?  Sure.  But not 1.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The point is, no one is raving about attributes like his arm, speed or athleticism. 
 

Of course you play him at second but what if that doesn’t work?  What if the defense at second ends up being just ok?  That’s the issue I have with him (well one of them).  Being basically a second baseman or a DH isn’t a guy you take #1.  #5?  Sure.  But not 1.

If he's a 70+ bat I accept average defense at second.

It's all about the bat.  If (and I have my doubts) it's that good he's a viable pick at 1-1.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If he's a 70+ bat I accept average defense at second.

It's all about the bat.  If (and I have my doubts) it's that good he's a viable pick at 1-1.

 

Even if the bat is that good now, I’m still not taking him.  There is no circumstance where I can get behind hiM as the first pick.  Not with the other talent/high upside guys sitting there.

I actually think I would go for one of the injured pitchers and save even more money before I go him.

[RZNJ]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Even if the bat is that good now, I’m still not taking him.  There is no circumstance where I can get behind hiM as the first pick.  Not with the other talent/high upside guys sitting there.

I actually think I would go for one of the injured pitchers and save even more money before I go him.

At least your consistent.   If your scouts unanimously said he had the best bat in the draft in 10 years and he was likely to average .300  .400 OBP, 20 homers + per year.    You still wouldn't take him?    

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

At least your consistent.   If your scouts unanimously said he had the best bat in the draft in 10 years and he was likely to average .300  .400 OBP, 20 homers + per year.    You still wouldn't take him?    

If any scout says any player is LIKELY to put those numbers up, particularly a HS kid, I would question that scout.  That’s a lofty goal and to call it likely is a big stretch for me.

I would hope the scout(s) would say the tools and ceiling are there for numbers such as these but likely?  No, that’s too strong for me.

And again, to be clear…I’m not saying Johnson is destined to be a bust.  I think there is a good chance he can be a solid MLer.  My stance on him is based around the idea of the #1 pick.  He isn’t  a player you tank a season for.

[Can_of_corn]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Even if the bat is that good now, I’m still not taking him.  There is no circumstance where I can get behind hiM as the first pick.  Not with the other talent/high upside guys sitting there.

I actually think I would go for one of the injured pitchers and save even more money before I go him.

So he isn't a player you tank a season for but an injured pitcher is?

I'm guessing it isn't an injured right handed HS pitcher because one of those has never gone 1-1. 

 

[MouncastleandMcCormick]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

At least your consistent.   If your scouts unanimously said he had the best bat in the draft in 10 years and he was likely to average .300  .400 OBP, 20 homers + per year.    You still wouldn't take him?    

Basically, you are describing Kirby Puckett (who started at 3B when he entered college).  He's often what I think about in terms of a Johnson ceiling.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So he isn't a player you tank a season for but an injured pitcher is?

I'm guessing it isn't an injured right handed HS pitcher because one of those has never gone 1-1. 

 

No, the injured pitcher isn’t either.  I wouldn’t consider either.  Just saying I would take the pitcher over him if I had to choose.

[AlbNYfan]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he's a 70+ bat I accept average defense at second.

It's all about the bat.  If (and I have my doubts) it's that good he's a viable pick at 1-1.

 

Yep, drive in 3 let in 4. Average D is not acceptable for 1,1 IMO.

[Jammer7]

I think some teams can get by with an average-ish defensive player at 2B, if the player makes all of the plays they should. Hardy did not have great range toward the end of his career, but he turned outs into outs. He was always in the right position. Odor has been our best 2B defender in a good while. He turns the DP as well as anyone I can remember since maybe Alomar. I suppose Roberts wasn’t bad either. There is a lot of value in that for our pitchers. 

However, I think there is a move toward better, more dynamic, defenders in the Orioles system. Especially up the middle. With the philosophy of throwing more strikes, letting the stuff play in the middle of the zone and working deeper into the games, they need plays made. That said, the Orioles have Westburg and Henderson coming up. One may end up at SS or 2B in the shorter term. Henderson is twitchier, while Westburg is more solid. But they weren’t 1-1 picks either. 

For me, IMO, the strength of a good team is up the middle defenders. If I have doubts about a guy’s range, arm, feet and quickness, I don’t want them at 2B. Some body types project better than others. Termarr has a nice swing, sure. But at 5’-08” 195 lbs., that doesn’t project well for an infielder. The tools don’t appear to suggest a move to CF or RF. LF in Baltimore is now cavernous. I just don’t see picking him at 1–1. Not saying he is a bad player, just not what I would do.

I would rather have an excellent twitchy defender with average offense at 2B, who brings energy everyday, than a more laid back guy like Termarr. He may win some silver sluggers, but how many runs would a better defender have prevented? How many outs would a better defender save and allow a pitcher to go deeper? I don’t want Grayson and DL having to get 4-5 outs in an inning.

If they take him, I’ll support him. But it’s an awfully narrow profile for an organization that emphasizes positional flexibility. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

Yep, drive in 3 let in 4. Average D is not acceptable for 1,1 IMO.

How does average become drive in three let in four?

That doesn't make sense.

 

Jeter was a poor shortstop, well below average.

His bat played at short.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I think some teams can get by with an average-ish defensive player at 2B, if the player makes all of the plays they should. Hardy did not have great range toward the end of his career, but he turned outs into outs. He was always in the right position. Odor has been our best 2B defender in a good while. He turns the DP as well as anyone I can remember since maybe Alomar. I suppose Roberts wasn’t bad either. There is a lot of value in that for our pitchers. 

However, I think there is a move toward better, more dynamic, defenders in the Orioles system. Especially up the middle. With the philosophy of throwing more strikes, letting the stuff play in the middle of the zone and working deeper into the games, they need plays made. That said, the Orioles have Westburg and Henderson coming up. One may end up at SS or 2B in the shorter term. Henderson is twitchier, while Westburg is more solid. But they weren’t 1-1 picks either. 

For me, IMO, the strength of a good team is up the middle defenders. If I have doubts about a guy’s range, arm, feet and quickness, I don’t want them at 2B. Some body types project better than others. Termarr has a nice swing, sure. But at 5’-08” 195 lbs., that doesn’t project well for an infielder. The tools don’t appear to suggest a move to CF or RF. LF in Baltimore is now cavernous. I just don’t see picking him at 1–1. Not saying he is a bad player, just not what I would do.

I would rather have an excellent twitchy defender with average offense at 2B, who brings energy everyday, than a more laid back guy like Termarr. He may win some silver sluggers, but how many runs would a better defender have prevented? How many outs would a better defender save and allow a pitcher to go deeper? I don’t want Grayson and DL having to get 4-5 outs in an inning.

If they take him, I’ll support him. But it’s an awfully narrow profile for an organization that emphasizes positional flexibility. 

 

In today's game of strikeouts and launch angles how many more balls do you really think a "twitchy" defender at second is going to get to over an "average" defender? 

Not enough to make up the difference between a 70 grade bat and your average bat at 2B that's for sure.

 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "laid back guy" but it sounds insulting.  It kinda sounds like you are calling him lazy.

 

Also I just want to state, again, I'm not advocating for the kid.  I don't buy that the bat is that special. 

[RZNJ]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In today's game of strikeouts and launch angles how many more balls do you really think a "twitchy" defender at second is going to get to over an "average" defender? 

Not enough to make up the difference between a 70 grade bat and your average bat at 2B that's for sure.

 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "laid back guy" but it sounds insulting.  It kinda sounds like you are calling him lazy.

 

Also I just want to state, again, I'm not advocating for the kid.  I don't buy that the bat is that special. 

And by all descriptions, Johnson is not "laid back" on the field.  He sounds like an energetic player to me.   I'm not even advocating him for the top pick but all logic and rationale seems to have gone out the window when discussing him.   And "twitchy" gets thrown around a lot too.   Johnson is described has having quick feet and hands and elite bat speed.   That sounds twitchy to me unless it doesn't fit our narrative.   

[RZNJ]

Just to recap

1. It doesn't matter how good Johnson's bat is

2. He's 5'8" and can't be that good

3. He's projected to be average defensively at 2B but some people insist he'll be below average or that even average stinks.

4. Even though Johnson was rated #1 pre-season and Law has him #3, McDaniel has him #2, and most have him top 5, he shouldn't be the #1 pick BECAUSE ....... drum roll ......   a 2B hasn't been picked #1 before so that must mean it's the wrong thing to do.

5. Doesn't matter how many "experts" have him as a top 3 talent in the draft or have no problem if he's taken #1.   Must be stupid.