Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cohen can do whatever he wants but how many picks besides his two first rounders does he have between 33 and 67 (the Orioles have 3 there)?

One HS pitcher (Andrew can'tspellit) already withdrew from the draft to attend college.   Others will post a number and tell teams if they match it they'll sign.  Otherwise going to college.  Some HS position players do the same.   There are an inordinate amount of top college pitches either rehabbing or just back from TJ surgery that would be overslot targets as well.    There has to be at least 5 of those guys if not 10.  Some will be gone in the first round and that doesn't even include Kumar.     Some of those guys might go be willing to go back to school.   And then there are your sophomore eligible types like Jud Fabian (turned down $2M to go back to school) was last year, not to mention our own John Rhodes, who have some leverage.

Mets have picks at 52 and 75.  Odd you would stop at 67 instead of listing the whole of the second round.

O's- 1, 33, 42, 67

Mets- 11, 14, 52, 75.

 

That's enough to disrupt a draft if they are willing to forfeit a pick next season.  (He might very well be bluffing)

[btdart20]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also as I've said before Cohen seems eager to try and blow up the draft this year with the Mets.

The Mets will be interesting to watch.  ($14m plus chatter about blowing by the 5% draft overage to cost them future drafts) picks 11, 14, 52, 75

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Cohen can do whatever he wants but how many picks besides his two first rounders does he have between 33 and 67 (the Orioles have 3 there)?

If we go significantly under-slot then a few other "Draft Busters" that will be interesting to watch (if we're angling for that fifth $2m draftee):

Rockies - ($13.6m pool) picks 10, 31, 38, 50

Reds - ($10.8m) picks 18, 32, 55, 73

D-backs - ($15.1m) picks 2, 34, 43

Red Sox - ($8m) - 24, 42, 79

Blue Jays - ($8.3m) - 23, 60, 77, 78

The Rays picks 65, 70, and 71 will be interesting too.  But they "only" have $8m draft budget.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mets have picks at 52 and 75.  Odd you would stop at 67 instead of listing the whole of the second round.

O's- 1, 33, 42, 67

Mets- 11, 14, 52, 75.

 

That's enough to disrupt a draft if they are willing to forfeit a pick next season.  (He might very well be bluffing)

Ha.  I legitimately had no idea where the Mets are picking.   I just know the O's have 1:1, 33, 46, and 2:1 (67).   If they are going big overslot it's probably at one of those spots.    If the Mets are telling every single player out there that they will sign them to 3M that's one thing.    The Mets are going to take two picks 11 & 14 who would never have gotten to the Orioles anyway.      We have two picks before their next pick.   Unless the Mets are telling every player in the draft that they will sign them for 5M I don't see a whole lot they can do there.

And if the Mets are going to blow up this draft they will have to start making offers to actual players.   In turn, the playes will have to give the other teams their number so the other teams will pass on them.   Word will get out if the Mets are going to do something dramatic, never done before.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Unless the Mets are telling every player in the draft that they will sign them for 5M I don't see a whole lot they can do there.

And if the Mets are going to blow up this draft they will have to start making offers to actual players.   In turn, the playes will have to give the other teams their number so the other teams will pass on them.   Word will get out if the Mets are going to do something dramatic, never done before.

And that still doesn't' mean another team won't draft said player.  And is that kid really going to walk away from $2m for a shot at more a few years later (if they are healthy and perform)?

Edited June 30, 2022 by btdart20

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

And that still doesn't' mean another team won't draft said player.  And is that kid really going to walk away from $2m for a shot at more a few years later (if they are healthy and perform)?

Sure, word is the O's promised Fabian 3M and the Red Sox picked him ahead of the O's. 

[RZNJ]

BTW, to answer the OP I would go for Jones and not worry about saving the 1.5M but that's going by all of the things I've read which is basically everyone having Jones rated the #1 prospect.     

[geschinger]

 

39 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  In another thread I mentioned that it would essentially buy us a fifth $2m draft signing (assuming pick 33 is slot) if we maxed everything else.  The odds of that guy being available at pick 81 is slim.  But having trouble finding it since we’ve started another thread on a similar topic.

It doesn't have to be another $2m signing, the extra resources could be spread around. The number of potential targets depends on how agressive you want to get.   

Looking at a past draft as an example - In the DL Hall draft, two of the Orioles unsigned HS picks turned into 1st round picks a couple of years later and third developed into a 2nd round pick.  Obviously picking where they did in that draft they didn't have the draft pool capital to make buying them out of their college commitments work like they did with Mayo, Baulmer and Willems.  But in a scenario where they did if those resources could have been used to buy them out of their college commitments that would have been a homerun to have those guys in the system.

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, word is the O's promised Fabian 3M and the Red Sox picked him ahead of the O's. 

Sounds like the Red Sox and Fabian lost their gambles.  I bet Fabian won't get a $3m deal this year.  And maybe not $1.86m 40 slot money either.  I imagine the Red Sox were somewhere between those two numbers though.  Fabian may break even money-wise except he gets his money a year later of devalued currency and inflated costs.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Sounds like the Red Sox and Fabian lost their gambles.  I bet Fabian won't get a $3m deal this year.  And maybe not $1.86m 40 slot money either.  I imagine the Red Sox were somewhere between those two numbers though.  Fabian may break even money-wise except he gets his money a year later of devalued currency and inflated costs.

I have to wonder if he would have signed with the Sox if the O's hadn't floated him that large a number.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I have to wonder if he would have signed with the Sox if the O's hadn't floated him that large a number.

Sounds like he had a number to keep him from going back to school and the Orioles knew that number and the Red Sox did not.   My guess is that the Red Sox didn't do their homework in this case.

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, geschinger said:

 

It doesn't have to be another $2m signing, the extra resources could be spread around. The number of potential targets depends on how agressive you want to get.   

Looking at a past draft as an example - In the DL Hall draft, two of the Orioles unsigned HS picks turned into 1st round picks a couple of years later and third developed into a 2nd round pick.  Obviously picking where they did in that draft they didn't have the draft pool capital to make buying them out of their college commitments work like they did with Mayo, Baulmer and Willems.  But in a scenario where they did if those resources could have been used to buy them out of their college commitments that would have been a homerun to have those guys in the system.

MLB Draft 2022 bonus pools, pick values

Here's my 'assumptions/math':

1.1 - $6.6m ($8.8m slot) - save $2.2m

1.33 - $2.3 slot

2.42 - $2m ($1.861m slot) - over slot by $0.2

2.67 - $2m ($1m slot) - over slot by $1m

3.81 - $2m ($800k slot) - over slot by $1.2m

We can still go slot/Jones at $8m and get the first 4 picks (1, 33, 42, 67) plus the $800-850k allowed (but taxed) over-budget spending.  It's that last pick that needs wiggle room to get the bonus to $2m. 

If we go really under-slot and save the full $2.2m in the math above, it'll also get us wiggle room to potentially get the next pick around $2m bonus as well.

4.107 - $2m ($571k) - over slot by $1.43m

Total over slot needs = $3.83m.  $2.2m under slot saving + $825k allowed overage = $3.025m gap.  Or $805k needed under slot from later picks in rounds 5-10.  Which is tight because those rounds combined have a total slot value of $1.5m.

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I have to wonder if he would have signed with the Sox if the O's hadn't floated him that large a number.

Anchoring is a powerful psychological tool in negotiations!

[LookinUp]

I honestly just don't want them to draft a 2b. I get that you don't draft for need, but this org has a lot of guys who can play 2b and theoretically will hit. Draft a true SS or CF. That's what I'd do with all else being equal, and I'd pay a little more for it for sure.

Now if Termarr Johnson turns out to be a Robbie Alomar like player, he's worth it. I'd need to hear that to be sold though.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I honestly just don't want them to draft a 2b. I get that you don't draft for need, but this org has a lot of guys who can play 2b and theoretically will hit. Draft a true SS or CF. That's what I'd do with all else being equal, and I'd pay a little more for it for sure.

Now if Termarr Johnson turns out to be a Robbie Alomar like player, he's worth it. I'd need to hear that to be sold though.

Well, no one could ever tell you he's going to be Robbie Alomar.   Just as no one can gurantee that Druw Jones will be an above average ML starting CF.  The idea is to get the best player or best combination of players.   "All things being equal" you'd take the SS and probably even the CF over the 2B.    It all comes down to the evaluation of Johnson's versus the evaluation of the other players.    If someone truly believes he has a 70 bat , 60 power, and will be at least an average 2B, and at the same time, has serious questions about Druw Jones bat, then you can see how that person would prefer Johnson.   

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I honestly just don't want them to draft a 2b. I get that you don't draft for need, but this org has a lot of guys who can play 2b and theoretically will hit. Draft a true SS or CF. That's what I'd do with all else being equal, and I'd pay a little more for it for sure.

Now if Termarr Johnson turns out to be a Robbie Alomar like player, he's worth it. I'd need to hear that to be sold though.

You don’t draft for need but you can’t ignore it either.

Lets put it this way.  Even as a HSer, whoever they take with the first pick should be knocking on the door by 2025 if they are as good as what they believe.

So yea, I think you can look at our current situation and say, I think we are good at second base in 3 years.

Now, if you believe Johnson is the best player in this draft, you ignore that but I do think you consider it in strictly a we want to save money, who do we take thought process.

I think if you go way underslot, you take Collier.  Otherwise, Jones should be the pick with Holliday your next choice.