Adley Rutschman’s “First Half”

[Just Regular]

15 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Harder calculation to do using Fangraphs (at least to my knowledge), but per rWAR, there are only two rookie catchers since 1950 who played at least 60 games that have earned WAR at a rate of at least .047 per game. That’s about a 7.5 win pace over a full season. 

The first is Carlton Fisk. The other is Adley Rutschman. 

Its a blast having B-Ref to look back at careers and their origins.   Rookie of Year 1972 Fisk led the league in triples and finished 4th in the MVP voting.    He was the 4th overall pick his draft year right behind Ken Singleton.

Whether Adley can climb to MVP-4 (or even being 3rd finalist with Ohtani/Judge?).....Fangraphs generous accounting currently shows him 17th among AL position players in the counting stat fWAR, though you have to turn the filter off "Qualified" players to get him to show up.     Tweaking that filter also gives an interesting example of Fangraphs being very strong on catcher defense - Adley remains "behind" Jose Trevino, who has even fewer PA and off the charts defensive numbers.   

Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez and the stronger finisher between Devers and Xander are probably today's favorites for the courtesy 3rd place "finalist" behind the big Ohtani-Judge debate coming.

If the Dodgers get Ohtani and the Mets get Judge, does anyone else have shorter odds for 2023 AL MVP?    Vlad-Wander always there, as they will be all decade.

[Aristotelian]

Since June 1, Adley is #1 catcher and #9 player overall MLB in fWAR. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Ripken said:

Rookie XBH Leaders (AB) :

JRod - 40 (399)

Witt - 40 (426)

Adley - 33 (247) !!!

Pena - 31 (370)

Harris - 30 (264)

Melendez - 30 (313)

Harris straight from AA.  

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Harris straight from AA.  

Just think how good he'd be if he had been properly developed and earned his way into the majors.

[Ripken]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Harris straight from AA.  

...and already under contract for 8 years.

[Stotle]

First player in a long time I really, really want to see in orange and black for life.

[Frobby]

Here’s the promised comparison between Adley’s first 61 games with the team and the second 61 games.

Offense, “first half”:  54 games, 216 PA, .246/.343/.433, 120 OPS+, .340 wOBA, .337 xwOBA, 120 wRc+, 18 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 24 BB, 40 K’s, 2.1 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR.

Offense, “second half”: 59 games,  254 OA, .261/.378/.455, 135 OPS+, .366 wOBA, .346 xwOBA, 17 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 41 BB, 46 K’s, 3.1 rWAR, 3.3 fWAR.

Defense, “first half”: 16 SB, 5 CS, 0 PB, 9 WP, 15 Asst., 3 errors, +2 Rtot, +5 Rdrs, +3.5 Fangraphs framing in 373.1 innings caught, +5.6 Fangraphs defense.

Defense, “second half”: 9 SB, 6 CS, 2 PB, 14 WP, 20 Asst., 5 errors, +1 Rtot, +13 Rdrs, +6.6 Fangraphs framing in 388.2 innings caught, +7.5 Fangraphs defense.

In the “first half,” the team was 31-23 when Adley played, 29-22 when he started (22-19 when he started at C, 7-3 when he started at DH).   In the “second half,” the O’s were 32-27 when Adley played, 31-25 when he started (28-15 when he started at C, 3-10 when he started at DH).

Bottom line, Adley played at a 5.6 rWAR/5.4 fWAR pace in his 61-game “first half,” and an 8.2 rWAR/8.6 fWAR pace in his “second half.”   An 8 WAR season in 2023 seems pretty plausible.   

Edited October 13, 2022 by Frobby

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs yearend readout of AL Batters placed Adley 10th, tied with Julio, and 6 spots ahead of Steven Kwan.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=400&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

If you give Adley a 33% counting boost for the 40 extra games the injury deprived him of, it would move him about half a win past Yordan-Altuve into 3rd place.

Always take the field, but especially if Judge and/or Ohtani become 2023 National Leaguers, he'll plausibly be in the MVP race from the first pitch of his first full season.

In the category of "clutching at straws", Steven Kwan was about as good as Adley the last month as his team ran away from the White Sox and Twins who were making a race of it at Labor Day.

 

[Frobby]

I think Adley’s “second half” numbers provide some clue to how often he’ll catch next year.   In the “first half” they eased him into the starting role somewhat, but in the “second half” he started 43 of 61 games at C.   Over a full year, that would be 114 starts at C.  In 2022, 114 starts would have been 3rd most in MLB.   That’s probably about where he lands, IMO.

Adley‘s offense stayed very consistent through the end of the year, but I did sense a little defensive fatigue in the closing weeks.  The only two passed balls he allowed all year came on September 23 and 26, and of the 23 wild pitches that got past him, 10 came in the final 17 games he caught.  So, Hyde will need to keep an eye on that.  

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think Adley’s “second half” numbers provide some clue to how often he’ll catch next year.   In the “first half” they eased him into the starting role somewhat, but in the “second half” he started 43 of 61 games at C.   Over a full year, that would be 114 starts at C.  In 2022, 114 starts would have been 3rd most in MLB.   That’s probably about where he lands, IMO.

Adley‘s offense stayed very consistent through the end of the year, but I did sense a little defensive fatigue in the closing weeks.  The only two passed balls he allowed all year came on September 23 and 26, and of the 23 wild pitches that got past him, 10 came in the final 17 games he caught.  So, Hyde will need to keep an eye on that.  

I like the analysis here. So 115 starts at C and 35-40 at DH? If you catch him that much does he play 1B at all? I think not.  I honestly don't recall either PB. Can you provide any context? 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I like the analysis here. So 115 starts at C and 35-40 at DH? If you catch him that much does he play 1B at all? I think not.  I honestly don't recall either PB. Can you provide any context? 

I saw both passed balls and they were legit PBs, but neither was meaningful, as they came in games the O’s won by scores of 6-0 and 14-8.   With wild pitches, obviously many just can’t be blocked, but I feel like I saw a few toward the last two weeks where my reaction was, Adley usually blocks that.   He was still making a lot of spectacular blocks even at the end, though.  

I think you’re right that Adley is more likely to play DH than 1B when he’s not catching.  
 

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think Adley’s “second half” numbers provide some clue to how often he’ll catch next year.   In the “first half” they eased him into the starting role somewhat, but in the “second half” he started 43 of 61 games at C.   Over a full year, that would be 114 starts at C.  In 2022, 114 starts would have been 3rd most in MLB.   That’s probably about where he lands, IMO.

Adley‘s offense stayed very consistent through the end of the year, but I did sense a little defensive fatigue in the closing weeks.  The only two passed balls he allowed all year came on September 23 and 26, and of the 23 wild pitches that got past him, 10 came in the final 17 games he caught.  So, Hyde will need to keep an eye on that.  

The over-achieving pitchers tiring under the stress of the Wild Card race was also a factor in the late-season stats, but I agree he looked weaker defensively during the last month, seemed fatigued at an unfortunate time of the season.

It's understandable though when one considers it was by far the most games he had played in a season; closest was 110 in 2021 (82 at C, 28 at first base). Seeing how often he played first base makes me realize there are more options in the pinch than I thought.