When we "lift off", who should they be trying to acquire?

[Sports Guy]

Mike Elias has said the time is now and we are ready to lift off (is this the new hang on for the ride?).

The payroll for next year is scheduled to be very low. Of the players who are scheduled to be on the team in 2023, as of now, these are the players who are arg eligible.

• Santander (year 3 of 4 in arb)
• Mullins- Year 1
• Hays- Year 1
• Tate- Year 1
• Mateo- Year 1

The only other arg elgible players are Voth and Phillips, both in year 2 of arb.  I don't expect either will be kept and if they were, it would be at far cheaper salaries than arb 2 numbers normally are.

But if the other 5 players are kept(and I doubt all 5 will be), I would estimate about 17M going to those 5 players.

I am also going to assume that the option for Lyles won't be picked up but agree that it is possible.

For the purposes of who we must add to the 40 man, these are the likely candidates:

• GRod
• Handley
• Ortiz
• Rom
• Seth Johnson

Brnovich and Peek could be added but I am going to say they aren't added.   I guess someone else could be added (Denoyer?) but for now, I think those 5 will be added and GRod.  I wouldn't be surprised if Rom wasn't added.  FG shows Stowers as if he has been added to the 40 man but I think that's a mistake, so he is another one who should be added.

Of those being added to the 40 man, GRod makes the team and I think Handley stands a very good chance to make it as well.  Based off of all reports, his age, how well he is hitting in AA, I think you can bring him up and be fine with him as the back up.  

So, the ML roster is looking at having these guys unless a trade occurs:

• C- Rutschman, cheap back up (maybe Handley)
• IF: Mountcastle, Henderson, Westburg, Urias, Mateo
• OF: Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, McKenna
• UTI: Vavra
• Starters: GRod, Hall, Means (eventually), Wells
• Relievers: Bautista, Perez, Akin, Vespi, Tate, Kreihbel
• On team but what role? Bradish..For me, he would be a reliever as of today and thinking we will add starts (see below)

 

That leaves roster space for only pitchers if things play out this way (which it won't)

Here is the list of FAs:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/08/2022-23-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Questions that come to mind:

1) If Correa is available, do you go after him?  If not, do you go after any other SS?  

2) How different will our OF look in 2023?  As I said, even though those are the players listed, I think the OF sees a lot of turnover.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 current starters are all gone although I do expect at least 1 back.  Cowser looks like he will be ready early in the year.  Stowers is also ready.  I could see the Os keep Hays and sign a guy like Keirmeier for 1 year to be a stop gap CFer.  Hays basically is your 4th OFer once Cowser comes up but he gets a ton of at bats since the other OFers are left handed.  McKenna continues to be your 5th OFer.

3) To go with question, what IFers do you move on from?  Personally, I think it is unlikely they go with Henderson, Westburg, Vavra, Urias and Mateo all on the team next year.  At least one of them will be traded imo but I also do not think there will be a need to add to the IF unless they trade Mountcastle and want a new first baseman (this is the scenario I could see Mancini coming back).  That said, I don't expect RM o be moved.

4) Of the pitchers available, I think Mike Clevinger makes a lot of sense.  He is healthy again and pitching well. 

5) My thoughts are you sign one pitcher and trade for another.  I still see Mullins going to the Marlins as a key move for both sides.  A deal revolving around Mullins and Lopez makes sense.

If you go with a rotation in 2023 of Lopez, Clevinger, GRod, Hall and Wells...and eventually Means, I think you have to be excited about that.

What are your thoughts on this?  What moves should be made with the eye on contending in 2023?

Edited August 5, 2022 by Sports Guy

[csgordos]

How I missed these posts from the past!!!

I think we trade our surplus OFs (2) for SP that we scratch our head about that have 3+ years left on their major league contracts.   Someone that the analytics think we can turn into a Wells type success.  Rodriguez, Wells, Lyles (or someone like him), trade candidate, Hall, and eventually Means.   

That would be my guess based on patterns.  We are not giving more than 3 years to a SP FA.  I actually agree with that philosophy from an injury risk prospective.  

[Rbiggs2525]

With the research I’ve done and the roster we currently have, to me only arms makes sense. All the top free agents are right handed bats and I don’t see the need to add that with the way our field is constructed. There’s a huge list of pitchers but every one has a concern. I think they go bigger money and smaller contract because of the risk.

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I haven't done the math on it, but who will be the veteran pitchers during 2023-25 that will be the equivalent of the Astros acquiring Verlander and Greinke?

The one thing I think will be needed to put the Orioles as a serious World Series contender is a veteran ace starter. I don't think the starting rotation can be filled out by only players from the farm system or already on the team to get to a World Series. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[seak05]

A little bit of a different option

 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, seak05 said:

A little bit of a different option

 

Interesting.  He’s 29, so I’m guessing he doesn’t get stupid money.  Wonder how he compares to Wei Yen Chen?

[oldfan]

I still think Elias is looking to 2024 as the year. Wondering what this year has done to his timetable, not much so far. Hopefully Rodriguez and Henderson are who the scouts say they are, still have to find out about Westburg, Vavra, Stowers and Hall, if they are key players in future or not. Most of this won't be known till sometime in 2023 at least. Starting pitching will be very important, with Hall being the mystery factor and we still will need one FA starter to lead the rotation next year. This winter will prove interesting.

[Brooks The Great]

24 minutes ago, oldfan said:

I still think Elias is looking to 2024 as the year. Wondering what this year has done to his timetable, not much so far. Hopefully Rodriguez and Henderson are who the scouts say they are, still have to find out about Westburg, Vavra, Stowers and Hall, if they are key players in future or not. Most of this won't be known till sometime in 2023 at least. Starting pitching will be very important, with Hall being the mystery factor and we still will need one FA starter to lead the rotation next year. This winter will prove interesting.

It wouldn't make sense for 2024 to be the year - needs to be sooner. Elias needs to be aggressive ahead of the 2023 season. We're adding several talented prospects (and John Means at some point in 2023) to a team that has shown it is capable of playing .500 baseball or better.

[Aristotelian]

I think it is time to add aggressively and starting pitching is the missing piece. I like Clevinger as well. Also Manaea, Perez, and Kluber are some possibilities.

[25 Nuggets]

Agree with the rest that starting pitcher is the target to go for.

Would be interested in Noah Syndergaard.  He's been traded to Philly as a rental and is worth keeping an eye on down the stretch as he continues to recover from TJS.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, oldfan said:

I still think Elias is looking to 2024 as the year. Wondering what this year has done to his timetable, not much so far. Hopefully Rodriguez and Henderson are who the scouts say they are, still have to find out about Westburg, Vavra, Stowers and Hall, if they are key players in future or not. Most of this won't be known till sometime in 2023 at least. Starting pitching will be very important, with Hall being the mystery factor and we still will need one FA starter to lead the rotation next year. This winter will prove interesting.

Even if 2024 is "the year," it would not be a bad idea to sign someone to a multiyear deal now if they see a good opportunity. 

[maybenxtyr]

If we thought the couple of trades from the deadline were tough to swallow...we haven't seen anything yet. There will be some tough decisions that need to be made this off season if this is truly the lift off point.

 

These guy's have played hard and surprised many people, but at the end of the day they are lesser players blocking true talent. The hopes are the prospects have at least another superstar/elite player in the mix with Adley. 

 

The pitching is the obvious need for improvement and growth. Urias, Mateo, and Mountcastle are also good but not great players. The same can be said for the OF. The off season is where they are going to have to target who they trade for pitching, and who replaces what they trade. The infield can be settled with in house and MiL options I believe except for 1B. I'm not ready to give up on Mountcastle but it's getting close. They need a true middle of the order bat, and 1B is one of the easier positions to get it.

 

I think this will be the hardest off season of Elias's tenure, and it's also going to create a lot of chat on here because some of the average type players that has gotten them this far are going to have to be moved out.

[Sports Guy]

I know it’s been talked about a lot over the last year but I don’t see the sense in signing one of the SS.

You have options at the position and now with Holliday, who should be here by 2025, I don’t see the sense in that signing.

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know it’s been talked about a lot over the last year but I don’t see the sense in signing one of the SS.

You have options at the position and now with Holliday, who should be here by 2025, I don’t see the sense in that signing.

I used to think signing a solid FA SS was the way to go to anchor the team but after this year and the emergence of Mateo, Henderson and Westburg pushing themselves into the mix, and then Holliday being drafted…I just don’t see it anymore. 
 

I think your idea of sign an arm and trade for arm makes sense too. Manaea is who I hope they get. I think a left handed pitcher is really important due to the new wall and Hall is basically all there is until Means comes back and Hall is still a big question mark whether he’s even a rotation piece or bullpen. I have my doubts they go for Manaea though unfortunately, probably too expensive. I could see them going down a couple tier and looking at Boyd, Perez, or Quintana but honestly, at that point those signings wouldn’t excite me much because they could all easily regress to their career norms. Those are all LHP though and there’s plenty of other guys who throw right handed that would be good options. 
 

Trading is harder to predict but if Lopez or Urquidy are still available then one of those guys would be a good target. I really don’t know what it’d take to get them though and I don’t think Elias will be trading any prospects any time soon. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, oriole said:

I used to think signing a solid FA SS was the way to go to anchor the team but after this year and the emergence of Mateo, Henderson and Westburg pushing themselves into the mix, and then Holliday being drafted…I just don’t see it anymore. 
 

I think your idea of sign an arm and trade for arm makes sense too. Manaea is who I hope they get. I think a left handed pitcher is really important due to the new wall and Hall is basically all there is until Means comes back and Hall is still a big question mark whether he’s even a rotation piece or bullpen. I have my doubts they go for Manaea though unfortunately, probably too expensive. I could see them going down a couple tier and looking at Boyd, Perez, or Quintana but honestly, at that point those signings wouldn’t excite me much because they could all easily regress to their career norms. Those are all LHP though and there’s plenty of other guys who throw right handed that would be good options. 
 

Trading is harder to predict but if Lopez or Urquidy are still available then one of those guys would be a good target. I really don’t know what it’d take to get them though and I don’t think Elias will be trading any prospects any time soon. 

Kim Ng wants a true CFer.  Bowden has talked about this a lot on the radio, how it’s something she has been after.

Mullins to the Marlins still makes a ton of sense.  If we could do some kind of deal sending say Mullins, Haskin and Urias to the Marlins for Lopez and a guy like Elder and perhaps another piece, I think that’s a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides.

I would also still be trying to get Meyer, who perhaps the Marlins are more likely to deal now that he had TJ surgery and will be out next year.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Sports Guy