Are we ever going to spend some money?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's a lot easier when you have the most money and the earliest picks.

Yea, I agree on the rest of this, was why I was so annoyed they bothered with gaming Mountcastle for what is likely to be no gain.

Ehhh, maybe.  50% of first round picks are failures.  High picks are often failures.

The money thing is overblown because the large majority of the higher draft pools are based around the first round pick.  The higher the first round pick, the higher the pool.  
 

You will have plenty of money to sign guys.  Every team goes over slot on picks.  You don’t have to pick high in the draft to get expensive players later.

Really, this becomes a lot more about the Intl FAs than the drafted players.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

But Tampa doesn't do it. They are spending twice what the O's are.

Currently yes they are.  But usually don’t spend much.

This year is their highest OD payroll ever..83M.

Their highest end of year payroll was in 2017..81M.

We will see what they do going forward. You mentioned Franco and Glasnow.  They are going to do more of that.

But they cycle through guys so well.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Currently yes they are.  But usually don’t spend much.

This year is their highest OD payroll ever..83M.

Their highest end of year payroll was in 2017..81M.

We will see what they do going forward. You mentioned Franco and Glasnow.  They are going to do more of that.

But they cycle through guys so well.

And I have always been in favor of cycling guys.

You can't just do that tho.

It takes perfect information to keep a machine like that rolling.

[dzorange]

Imagine if the Orioles spent money this past offseason and we weren’t able to see the development of guys like Hays, Santander, Mateo, Urias, McKenna, Bautista, Lopez, Perez, Kremer, etc.

Odor, the one position player they did sign, people are clamoring to he benched or DFA’d.

The plan wasn’t for the O’s to be competitive this season and probably even next season. Instead, they’ve made good decisions and they’ve also had the ability to throw guys like Kremer and Bradish out there to see what they’ve got.

I’d love for the O’s to spend money this offseason, but only if it’s in a way that helps us for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. We can’t jeopardize future years to try to win now, when we still aren’t fully set up to win now.

 

Edited August 28, 2022 by dzorange

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The injuries to starting pitchers were pretty tough, but on balance I consider this to have been an above average year when it comes to the team avoiding injuries so far (knock on wood).

Losing the team's top three starters ranks pretty high to me.  

[Ohfan67]

There are threads about trading for Trout and a lot of speculation that the Orioles made Correa an offer last offseason and some fans who would like to sign him in the future. If the Orioles want to spend some money, get a ton of WAR out of a player in the next few years, and make a big flash that would focus media attention on the Orioles, then they should sign Judge to a five year, 250 million dollar contract. That would have an added advantage of lowering the teams ERA because they don't have to face him (although granted the balanced schedule makes that less advantageous next year).

 

*I'm only half joking.

 

By the way, the Orioles are the most efficient dollar per win team in MLB by a large margin (their cost per win was $674,426 per win as of a day or so ago. The Guardians were next at just over 1 million per win. Phillies, Red Sox, etc., are paying 3.4 million per win.) Those of us who discussed dollars per win in the ugly naughts of Orioles baseball will find this stat pretty remarkable. 

[wildcard]

If Mountcastle does not improve his 718 OPS I can see the O's spending on a 1B  over the winter.  Whether that is Mancini or someone else.  Mountcastle is still cheap and has options.   He could go the way on Mullins and be sent to AAA to find some plate discipline  then return as a DH/1B.

[ChuckS]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Mountcastle does not improve his 718 OPS I can see the O's spending on a 1B  over the winter.  Whether that is Mancini or someone else.  Mountcastle is still cheap and has options.   He could go the way on Mullins and be sent to AAA to find some plate discipline  then return as a DH/1B.

I don’t think he’s been nearly bad enough to warrant a demotion to Norfolk. It’s just not as much offense as you would hope to see at first base. 

[Sports Guy]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I have always been in favor of cycling guys.

You can't just do that tho.

It takes perfect information to keep a machine like that rolling.

I do agree with this, at least with the core of the roster.  The last 10 guys on the roster should be pretty interchangeable.

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, deward said:

I agree with your general point that ownership needs to step up to the plate now and follow through on their commitment to increase payroll once the rebuild was complete. However, I feel compelled to point out that the 2014 team was plenty good enough to win a title, they just ran into KC at the wrong time. 

The 2014 was a great regular season team. But also injured in the post season and more importantly flawed.  We had the type of one dimensional hitters who could be pitched to/handled by good pitching who exploited their unwillingness to take pitches out of the zone and chase (save for Cruz and Machado who was hurt when we faced the Royals). AND we did not have 1 elite starting pitcher, to be fair the Royals didn’t either at the time and both teams made up for it with tremendous bullpens. But as history showed that is not a sustainable way to build a team when you too heavily rely on even the best of bullpens because relief pitchers are too volatile in terms of performance year to year.

That’s one of the reasons that I do not believe that this year’s success is sustainable. We HAVE to get better starting pitching consistently (save the last few days which has been amazing).

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don’t think he’s been nearly bad enough to warrant a demotion to Norfolk. It’s just not as much offense as you would hope to see at first base. 

Just not as much offense  from 1B  as a playoff team needs.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Lyles would be fine on this team or really any as your 4th or 5th starter. Not as your #1 starter, saying that we are now 8 games over with the best record .700 winning over a significant period, (I think the stat was over the last 60 or so games). So while I think they will try to upgrade over Lyles. I think we can expect to the team to focus on hitter with Kremer, Bradish, Watkins, Voth, and Wells all showing that they made the jump.

I agree WHOLE HEARTEDLY that our young pitchers have displayed tremendous growth this year. I believe we would be fine with choosing a few of the best to begin in next years rotation. I would choose Wells, Kremer, and maybe Bradish on this year's performance. However, as we know pitchers get injured so there is a need to be 7-9 deep to get through a typical seasons (for reference look at this year's Dodgers).

However on your point about Lyles, I do not believe it would be a good use for a team like the Orioles to spend 11 mil on a pitcher like Lyles to be a 4 or a 5. 

1) We really don't need to spend on a 4 or a 5 given that we have all those types already with the pitchers you listed.

2) We need a bonafide #1 for the post season. I don't think it is wise to put that type of pressure on Grayson Rodriguez in his very first season in the bigs. 

This year we have defied the odds and beaten Manoah a few times, Cole, Cease, (when they were by far the superior pitcher when we faced them), and we avoided matching up with Ohtani. I don't think it's wise continuing to count on those type of improbable odds.

We are simply going to need better talent going forward if we want a world series.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

There are a lot of reasons why they pitching has improved this season.   Maturity of young pitchers,  the Wall, Holt, new attack pitching philosophy,  great defense,  in no particular order.

Next year the O's have (6) starters: Grayson, Kremer, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Voth, Watkins.   They can make a decision after the season if Lyles is a good eating innings 5th starter or if there is someone on the market that is better.  Means should be back in June/July.   DL Hall's control is a huge question mark even though they O's will have him come to ST as a starter.  There are  a lot of O's starters ahead of him in terms of effectiveness. 

Bautista, Perez, Tate, Krehbiel, Akin, Baker, Vespi should all be back with who ever doesn't make the rotation helping out.  For example Watkins and Voth.

For me the pitching projects better next year than the offense.  Adding Gunnar will help but overall the offense is middle of the pack.

Given all the players that you mentioned and their expected performances and (in most cases) improvements, do you think that type of roster is enough to win a world series?

I feel like that should be the primary goal going forward starting next seasons. How can we position ourselves to be champions or at least seriously competing for a title?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, dzorange said:

Imagine if the Orioles spent money this past offseason and we weren’t able to see the development of guys like Hays, Santander, Mateo, Urias, McKenna, Bautista, Lopez, Perez, Kremer, etc.

Odor, the one position player they did sign, people are clamoring to he benched or DFA’d.

The plan wasn’t for the O’s to be competitive this season and probably even next season. Instead, they’ve made good decisions and they’ve also had the ability to throw guys like Kremer and Bradish out there to see what they’ve got.

I’d love for the O’s to spend money this offseason, but only if it’s in a way that helps us for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. We can’t jeopardize future years to try to win now, when we still aren’t fully set up to win now.

 

I agree with your assertion that the FO approached this season correctly and it paid tremendous dividends in terms of player development. However, after this year's results, it would be a big mistake to not CHANGE the goals going forward. 

We are NOT the team that we were before the season started. We were hoping to see many guys get chances and perform. Well, they've done that and now it's time to bring other players on board who can fit into the puzzle pieces that are missing so that we can begin to compete for a world series.

Pushing that back until say 24, 25 will be wasting good years of the guys we already have on the team. I believe sports is to unpredictable from an injury and unknown perspective to project things out over multiple years in terms of timing for serious contention. Too many things can happen between now and then to get it all just right for that one or 2 year magical run when the stars are all aligned.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 8/27/2022 at 12:49 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't he also say a significant part of that would be to arbitration players when they don't have much in the way of them?

Makes a person wonder how much spending is going to increase.

Yea, probably not at all.  Like three guys get arb increases, non-tender the rest, then sign a couple six-year minor league free agents.  When he said the plan was to tear it down, don't spend money when it's not productive, then add payroll when they're competitive what he really meant was "screw you, Baltimore."