Would you hold Wieters back until the "super-2" deadline?

[Frobby]

While I think Chris's idea of what Wieters will make in his first 6 years is too high, I think he is pretty much on the money in terms of what it will take to actually get Boras to allow him to extend..In other words, insane money.

That is probably true. Wieters isn't like some other players, because he has $6.6 mm in the bank already. He can afford to roll the dice a little bit rather than angling for lifetime security. Even if he breaks a leg next March and never plays again, he's got enough money to live on for a very long time.

But just because that's what it might take doesn't mean that's what the Orioles should do.

[Sports Guy]

May we should plan now on dealing him two years from FA for a king's ransom to a NL club.

I don't know about 2 years but 3-4.5 years from now...we probably should...Unless of course he fires Boras, Boras retires or we are contending and need Wieters.

[Crazysilver03]

May we should plan now on dealing him two years from FA for a king's ransom to a NL club.

I don't know about 2 years but 3-4.5 years from now...we probably should...Unless of course he fires Boras, Boras retires or we are contending and need Wieters.

That's what he said. Two years from free agency, so approximately in four years.

I have given the Orioles a lot of benefits of the doubt, but if they fail to keep Wieters I will be seriously upset.

[Sports Guy]

That's what he said. Two years from free agency, so approximately in four years.

I have given the Orioles a lot of benefits of the doubt, but if they fail to keep Wieters I will be seriously upset.

Yea, you are right..Misread what he said.

There really is no reason to believe we will be able to keep Wieters and guess, there is really no reason to want to.

What I mean by that is he isn't going to sign an extension...We won't be able to eat up any of his FA years.

So, to keep him, we are going to have to give a 29 year old catcher a 5-7 year deal for a ton of money...That isn't a smart contract.

[Crazysilver03]

Yea, you are right..Misread what he said.

There really is no reason to believe we will be able to keep Wieters and guess, there is really no reason to want to.

What I mean by that is he isn't going to sign an extension...We won't be able to eat up any of his FA years.

So, to keep him, we are going to have to give a 29 year old catcher a 5-7 year deal for a ton of money...That isn't a smart contract.

Even if we give Wieters a monster contract, couldn't we at least consider moving him to 1B. If he plays to what level he does, he could still be worth the contract even as a 1B/DH.

[elsid]

Frobby showed that Cabrera made about $55M during his first 7 years, and Pujols would have made about $48M during his first 7 years.

I suggested a scenario of $45M over the first 6 years, and $62.5 over his first 7. With normal inflation, those dollars will basically equate the money made by Cabrera and Pujols.

The O's certainly gain something by signing a deal like the one I suggested…. They get the knowledge that they will have him for 10 years, not 7… which will take him to around age 32, and what should about the end of his life as a catcher.

The O's get the knowledge of knowing just how much they will be paying Wieters over the four years of arbitration… Frobby stated that, "Assuming he was 100% healthy, and assuming he turned into a superstar, he'd probably make $50 - $55 mm during his first 7 years, if he goes year by year."

So basically, Frobby estimates Wieters making $52.5M during his first 7 years if he produces… I estimated it at $62.5M…

If Frobby is the low, and I am the high… $57.5M over the 7 years would be the in-between.

I think the low-end likely hood of Wieters is Varitek in his prime… I think $120M over 10 years, or $12M per year is worth it… especially, when I believe your pronogistications of what Wieters is, are correct… and how much I believe that will cost the O's in arbitration… how much harder it will be to sign Wieters when he is producing those numbers…. And how I would like to avoid extending Wieters into his mid-30s.

If Tampa had extended Longoria's deal into FA as far as I proposed extending Wieters, the total dollars would be closer.

To Tampa's credit, they will have Longoria at known, very cheap prices for a long-period of time.

If you can do the same with Wieters… great… I think what I proposed, is a more likely scenario, if the goal is extending him into his FA years, and through the years which figure to be his most productive.

Ultimately, if you and Frobby, and Mackus, and SG think what I am offering is too high… I respect your opinions, and there is probably truth there.

On the other-hand, the fact that each of you think it is too much, seems to me logical to believe that Boras/Wieters would not be able to turn it down… and that really illustrates what I was attempting to accomplish.

That the O's can present an offer to Wieters now, which he would not be able to say no to, and would make him an Oriole for what figures to the duration of his productive ML career.

The problem with your thinking is that Cabrera and Pujols did something before they were extended. Wieters has done nothing, period. He is the #1 minor leaguer out there. I will give you that. However, he hasn't done anything in an ML uniform to deserve any type of extension yet.

Also, the O's hold everything in their hand. With the last CBA, the O's have 4 years before he becomes Rule 5 eligible. Based on the time that he has in the minors, that is two more years before the O's even have to put him on the 40 man roster. Then they get 6 years with him in the pros. Currently, the only clock that is running is the clock to become a Rule 5 draftee -- which still has plenty of time.

For the other part of the question at the beginning, there are 180 days to a season. 171 - 180 gets you a full season. The top 17% of those with 2+ years, with a minimum of 86 days, are a Super 2. My brother made the Super 2 last year, so this is his second year of arby. I don't think Wieters will be on the opening day roster, and I think there is a good chance that he won't be up until the AS break at least -- no matter what he is doing. If the team is winning, it will be a late callup. If the team is losing, no reason to lose time on him. That is the way this front office will think, I believe. Critisize what you will.

Also, I don't care how good a catcher he is. He isn't worth that much money before he even plays in the pros.

[weemnj]

May we should plan now on dealing him two years from FA for a king's ransom to a NL club.

Why not deal him now?-----to the Bosox or Yanks. Why delay the inevitable? They both have a dire need for a catcher and think of the possible return.

What do you think these two teams would offer?

[statman]

Major League experience is one thing, but losing this talented BORAS CLIENT before our competitive run is in full swing would be a travesty.

[Frobby]

Whenever Wieters joins the lineup... be it Opening Day, mid-April, or in June.... he is going to produce immediately.

What possible reason would exist to keep him off the team until the AS break?

I have no doubt that the franchise will not think of signing him until after year 3... at which point, with 3 big years already under his belt - and 3 years closer to FA... the O's will have a much harder time extending him.

What is your definition of "produce immediately?" Jay Bruce was the consensus no. 1 prospect a year ago. In 2007, he had a .965 OPS+ in A+, a 1.057 OPS in AA, and a .925 OPS in AAA. Then he stayed in AAA for 49 games in 2008, posting a 1.023 OPS. The Reds called him up on May 27, guaranteeing that he would accrue no more than 125 days of service time and wouldn't qualify as Super-2 after 2010. Bruce put up decent numbers (.767 OPS) and finished 5th in the NL rookie of the year voting. If Wieters posts numbers like that, will you consider that "producing immediately?" If you had given Wieters the contract that you proposed, and he posted a .767 OPS in his first year, would you feel justified in your decision, or would you be concerned that maybe you had jumped the gun?

The list of former BA minor league players of the year includes some real studs like Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Andruw Jones, Josh Beckett, and Joe Mauer. It also includes some very solid but not great players like Sandy Alomar, Tim Salmon, Paul Konerko, Erik Chavez and Jeff Francis. And it includes a few guys who have been semi-disappointments like Derek Bell, Rick Ankiel (selected as a pitcher and failed in that regard), Jon Rauch, and Rocco Baldelli (pretty good except when he's hurt, which is always). It's a little early to judge the most recent selections -- Delmon Young, Alex Gordon and Bruce -- but let's just say that if they were negotiating a long-term contract this offseason I wouldn't think anyone would be paying them the kind of money you're talking about.

[elsid]

Whenever Wieters joins the lineup... be it Opening Day, mid-April, or in June.... he is going to produce immediately.

What possible reason would exist to keep him off the team until the AS break?

I have no doubt that the franchise will not think of signing him until after year 3... at which point, with 3 big years already under his belt - and 3 years closer to FA... the O's will have a much harder time extending him.

Again, there is a reason most people here do not think you could even extend him now... ie Boras.

There is zero reason to believe it will be easier to extend him 3 years from now, then it is now.

In-fact, what I think becomes a likely scenerio at that point, is Boras saying to extend, the O's would have to push the deal into what be years 4, and 5 of Wieters FA... making Wieters in his mid 30's when the deal ends, and probably several years past his prime.

If you want the best chance at extending him... and you want the best chance of having him for just the first three years of what be his FA.... you find a way to extend him now.

The problem with your thinking, is believing he has to do something in a ML uniform to deserve an extension...

Then I guess I am sorry that I don't work for you. If you are handing out that kind of money for nothing, then I would be hard pressed to find something somewhere else.

I would like to see you present your scenario to your own boss. The potential is there for you to make the company millions, maybe even billions, so they should guarantee you a large salary now in order to see if that has the chance of happening.

[statman]

Whenever Wieters joins the lineup... be it Opening Day, mid-April, or in June.... he is going to produce immediately.

What possible reason would exist to keep him off the team until the AS break?

The reason is because the Orioles are not going to compete anyways. We all know it. We are a rebuilding franchise not prepared to make a run at anything. His "production" at the major league level would be a waste if it means we can't keep him for longer in the future when we will compete. It's the sad, but honest truth.

[Crazysilver03]

Once mid-April passes, the O's are not going to any extra time by keeping him in the minors longer...

Keeping your most talented player at AAA until the AS break does not make sense on any level.

Well it assures that he won't be a super-2, so that keeps his price down.

[SrMeowMeow]

April. Years are what I care about, not dollars.

[birdsncrabs]

Not trying to negative, but since one I think we're going to stink this year, and two that Wieters is represented by Scott Boras - so he's going to be a free agent 6 full seasons after he makes the majors, I am wondering about a different approach. If we had him play a full season at AAA, and started the 2010 season at AAA, the O's could keep him thru the 2016 season instead of losing him after the 2015 season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not trying to negative, but since one I think we're going to stink this year, and two that Wieters is represented by Scott Boras - so he's going to be a free agent 6 full seasons after he makes the majors, I am wondering about a different approach. If we had him play a full season at AAA, and started the 2010 season at AAA, the O's could keep him thru the 2016 season instead of losing him after the 2015 season.

If the O's kept Wieters in Norfolk all year and he put up a (park-neutral) line of something like .340/.425/.600, with 30+ homers, 100+ RBI in a lineup of Eider Torreses and Sebastian Bouchers you'd have a pitchfork-wielding mob on the steps of the Warehouse from mid-May on. And that would be justified.

Wieters has a chance to be better than Nick Markakis. He could be the drawing card, the face of the franchise, for the next 6-8 years and maybe beyond. He just might be Cal in 1982.

You simply can't trade a year (today) of a potentially top-flight, All Star caliber catcher for a year of him when he's 30 and possibly worn-down, at another position, or who knows what.