Is .500 in jeopardy?

[jabba72]

Have to go 8-14 rest of the way to finish with 81 wins. O's are 5-6 in September. 5 winnable games vs WAS and Detroit left. if O's can go 4-1 there that will help immensely. 3-2 and they'll still have to finish 5-12 vs rest of the schedule. That looks doable to me. They could end up with a negative run differential though. We're even right now. 

[Tony-OH]

.500 could be in jeopardy with the strength of schedule, but as was point out earlier, the Yankees and Blue Jays may be more focused on the playoffs the last time we play them so hopefully we can squeeze out a few more wins. It's like to finish at .500 or better just for the optics and to close out the losing seasons streak. 

I will say this, the orioles might want to re-evaluate their rest the starter's that need rest on Sunday's mentality and spread them out throughout the week, because their record on Sunday's is awful and a lot has to do with those back up lineups they tend to go with on Sundays. 

Between Adley's slow promotion (yes the injury was part of that), keeping Gunnar's rookie status for next year (we'll see if that works out) and the inclusion of Odor as a regulars throughout the season despite being a below replacement level player has hindered the Orioles playoff chances this year.

Now in their defense, the no one thought of the Orioles as having that chance this year, but we can certainly look back at some decisions and wonder how many wins did we potentially lose out on?

The real question is, will things be different next year and beyond when they should be considered contenders going into the season? 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

.500 could be in jeopardy with the strength of schedule, but as was point out earlier, the Yankees and Blue Jays may be more focused on the playoffs the last time we play them so hopefully we can squeeze out a few more wins. It's like to finish at .500 or better just for the optics and to close out the losing seasons streak. 

I will say this, the orioles might want to re-evaluate their rest the starter's that need rest on Sunday's mentality and spread them out throughout the week, because their record on Sunday's is awful and a lot has to do with those back up lineups they tend to go with on Sundays. 

Between Adley's slow promotion (yes the injury was part of that), keeping Gunnar's rookie status for next year (we'll see if that works out) and the inclusion of Odor as a regulars throughout the season despite being a below replacement level player has hindered the Orioles playoff chances this year.

Now in their defense, the no one thought of the Orioles as having that chance this year, but we can certainly look back at some decisions and wonder how many wins did we potentially lose out on?

The real question is, will things be different next year and beyond when they should be considered contenders going into the season? 

It goes back further than this but hey, we weren’t supposed to win in 2022, so we shouldn’t try to be better.

That was the mantra of most of this board last season and the entire offseason.

That mindset cost this team a better chance at making the playoffs this year.

[Oriole1940]

I hope they finish over ,500 but even if they do not, my takeaway from this season is one thing.   The Orioles have improved to the point where they can compete with the majority of teams in MLB.  However, the AL East is another story and they  still are not on a par with most of the teams there.  Of their many needs they still need that TOR stopper, to prevent those killer losing streaks that teams tend to have over the course of the long season.  And also the  middle of the  order big RBI bat.  The answer for these things may already be in house, and I hope they show themselves in 2023.  

[maybenxtyr]

I feel like I'm partly to blame here. I haven't been to a game in 12+ years but we got tickets last week for a game during the Houston series. It's been downhill ever since.

[JR Oriole]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

.500 could be in jeopardy with the strength of schedule, but as was point out earlier, the Yankees and Blue Jays may be more focused on the playoffs the last time we play them so hopefully we can squeeze out a few more wins. It's like to finish at .500 or better just for the optics and to close out the losing seasons streak. 

I will say this, the orioles might want to re-evaluate their rest the starter's that need rest on Sunday's mentality and spread them out throughout the week, because their record on Sunday's is awful and a lot has to do with those back up lineups they tend to go with on Sundays. 

Between Adley's slow promotion (yes the injury was part of that), keeping Gunnar's rookie status for next year (we'll see if that works out) and the inclusion of Odor as a regulars throughout the season despite being a below replacement level player has hindered the Orioles playoff chances this year.

Now in their defense, the no one thought of the Orioles as having that chance this year, but we can certainly look back at some decisions and wonder how many wins did we potentially lose out on?

The real question is, will things be different next year and beyond when they should be considered contenders going into the season? 

Yeah, I was thinking that maybe the B lineup (if there has to be one) can be used on Tuesday and Saturday nights or something.....just to give us a better chance to win the day games that close out a series. It probably doesn't matter what days the wins/losses occur in the grand scheme of things, but there definitely seems to be a mental hex this team has with Sundays and day games in general that is kind of silly.  Just because the sky is blue outside doesn't mean you have to lose every game.

As to whether things will be different next year, we have to wait and see. I certainly wouldn't expect it.  The Os remind me of the sloths at the DMV in Zootopia.  We just move at a slower pace than everyone else. But because I live in Atlanta, I do get to see how the Braves operate and it is refreshingly aggressive and fun to watch.  

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Definitely agree with all of this.

I can see them limping to the finish a bit and running out of gas.  I may be in the minority, but I don't really care about .500.  I have a pretty binary view - you either make the playoffs, or you do not.  If you don't make the playoffs then finishing above .500 or in a certain place in your division doesn't really matter to me.

Which doesn't mean that the season hasn't been successful, I think it very much has been regardless.  I think we've found some good nuggets and we've found the areas that need to improve to try to make the jump next year.

I get this on some levels. I do not think next year will be dependent upon how many wins they wind up with this year.
 

That said, I do think some organizations have a culture of winning. The Orioles from 1968-1985 had 18 consecutive winning seasons. From 1960-85 they had 24 of 26 winning seasons, from 63-85 it was 22 of 23. I wasn’t born but I’m still not sure how the 67 team had a losing record. 
 

I want the Orioles to be the kind of a team where a down year is still 84 wins.  

[Ohfan67]

I think the team might finish 80-82 and just miss .500. It's been such a great, fun season, but it will suck some if the season ends on a whimper. The team needs a little luck too. Mountcastle, for example, has hit the snot out of the ball the last couple of weeks. He has a .797 OPS over the past two weeks, but he had multiple scorched balls that were caught. We need a couple of hot streaks by hitters (and that always includes some luck) and the pitching not to collapse. That seems like a pretty big ask right now. Fingers crossed. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It goes back further than this but hey, we weren’t supposed to win in 2022, so we shouldn’t try to be better.

That was the mantra of most of this board last season and the entire offseason.

That mindset cost this team a better chance at making the playoffs this year.

Perhaps, but if we went out and got the two starting pitchers you wanted, maybe we would not have seen the improvements from Kremer and Bradish this year because they might not have been given a chance?

I agree in the sense that this team would have been better, but no one really thought this team was going to be contending for a a wild card spot in September. 

Either way, what we can agree on is we don't know how Elias will handle building the last pieces for a contending team. We are going to find this out this winter and next year's trading deadline. 

Elias and his staff have hit on some waiver wire pitchers (Perez, Baker, Krehbiel, Voth) but they've also made some questionable decisions with Chirinos, Odor and Aguilar all being well below replacement level players. Now, the same staff identified Urias and Mateo as waiver wire pickups, so they do have their wins, but their placeholders this year turned out to be not good.

Hopefully this team will finish at .500 or above and we'll feel good about our lineup next year and bullpen. Then they can go into the offseason looking to upgrade LF, 1B (still think they should convert Stowers), 2B and the starting pitching. 

Some of that should come from within. Westburg and Ortiz can battle it out for 2B and Westburg and Stowers could fight it out at 1B if Mountcastle is moved. 

It's going to be an interesting offseason or at least should be.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Perhaps, but if we went out and got the two starting pitchers you wanted, maybe we would not have seen the improvements from Kremer and Bradish this year because they might not have been given a chance?

I agree in the sense that this team would have been better, but no one really thought this team was going to be contending for a a wild card spot in September. 

Either way, what we can agree on is we don't know how Elias will handle building the last pieces for a contending team. We are going to find this out this winter and next year's trading deadline. 

Elias and his staff have hit on some waiver wire pitchers (Perez, Baker, Krehbiel, Voth) but they've also made some questionable decisions with Chirinos, Odor and Aguilar all being well below replacement level players. Now, the same staff identified Urias and Mateo as waiver wire pickups, so they do have their wins, but their placeholders this year turned out to be not good.

Hopefully this team will finish at .500 or above and we'll feel good about our lineup next year and bullpen. Then they can go into the offseason looking to upgrade LF, 1B (still think they should convert Stowers), 2B and the starting pitching. 

Some of that should come from within. Westburg and Ortiz can battle it out for 2B and Westburg and Stowers could fight it out at 1B if Mountcastle is moved. 

It's going to be an interesting offseason or at least should be.

 

 

Well, maybe you still see the improvement and maybe you don’t.  But if we are in the playoffs and have a more talented team going forward, I’m good with that.

The reality is that you can always say what you are saying.  The Os could go out and sign Verlander in the offseason and by doing that they may not find out something about someone…but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong move. 
 

[RZNJ]

We made a run for the playoffs and found out about players like Mateo, Kremer, Bradish, Urias, etc.   That's a win-win.

 

AND we were able to recuscitate Jorge Lopez's career and get a good haul for him.

Edited September 12, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

We made a run for the playoffs and found out about players like Mateo, Kremer, Bradish, Urias, etc.   That's a win-win.

We already knew about Urias and we haven’t found out anything yet.  Are they here to say?  One time thing?  Who knows.

What we did find out is that they showed that they can do it at this level and that’s definitely encouraging.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

We already knew about Urias and we haven’t found out anything yet.  Are they here to say?  One time thing?  Who knows.

What we did find out is that they showed that they can do it at this level and that’s definitely encouraging.

We didn't find out anything but we found out they can do it at this level?   Ok.

You knew Urias was a plus defensive 3B who could hit 15-20 homers?  Ok.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

We didn't find out anything but we found out they can do it at this level?   Ok.

You knew Urias was a plus defensive 3B who could hit 15-20 homers?  Ok.

We found out that can do it at this level. We don’t know if they can sustain it over a longer period of time.  2 distinctly different things and the difference in the 2 is very important when deciding how to build the team next year.

The defense for Urias is new, that’s true.   Honestly wasn’t thinking about that. The hitting is not.  He has always hit no matter where he has been.

[Aristotelian]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It goes back further than this but hey, we weren’t supposed to win in 2022, so we shouldn’t try to be better.

That was the mantra of most of this board last season and the entire offseason.

That mindset cost this team a better chance at making the playoffs this year.

That is such a ridiculous overstatement. Most of the board was against signing Kris Bryant. Most were in favor of signing Stroman/pitcher and an infielder. Nobody said we shouldn't try.