Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[DrungoHazewood]

58 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Playing just in the shortstops positions (meaning when he plays on the left side of second base, Mateo is ranked 5th in the majors league at SS with 7 OAA.

He is however the top AL shortstop. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=64,62,60,61&viz=hide

 

 

Swanson has played nearly 200 more innings than Mateo.  Scaling to the same playing time he's only 2-3 OAA ahead of Mateo.

[Aristotelian]

Fangraphs also has Mateo #7. Still, unless you think defensive metrics are perfect, he is close enough to 4-6 that you could say those guys are "not better" than Mateo.

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Fangraphs also has Mateo #7. Still, unless you think defensive metrics are perfect, he is close enough to 4-6 that you could say those guys are "not better" than Mateo.

People love defensive metrics when it agrees with their position.   They seem to find ways of dismissing them when it doesn't support their argument.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Swanson has played nearly 200 more innings than Mateo.  Scaling to the same playing time he's only 2-3 OAA ahead of Mateo.

Its an interesting comparison:
                    G       Inn          CH    PO     A     DP     E    Rtot    Rdrs    Rtot/yr    Rdrs/yr
Swanson     150    1335.1    550   177   365   74     8      8          6         7             5    
Mateo         136    1147.2    552   160   375   81    17    3         13         3           14

Despite around 188 less innings, Mateo's had more chances, 10 more assists, 7 more DPs but made 9 more errors. This tells me that Mateo probably has more range and a better arm and turns the DP better. The errors is what killed Mateo's OAA, but he clearly brings that exciting range play that Swanson and others probably can't make.   

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you watch the other shortstops play on a regular basis?

I watch the Rangers fairly consistently, and of course, watch all the teams the Orioles play.

I've also watched baseball 35 years now.  I've seen 2 Orioles shortstops win 5 gold gloves between them.  I saw those guys every day too.  Mateo is having a better season than either of them did.

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I see 7th here?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2022&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=6&roles=&viz=hide

Either way, the point is Mateo isn’t even playing SS at the highest level in the majors this year. Palmer is just exaggerating. 

Or maybe your stats aren't Gospel.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Pickles

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

People love defensive metrics when it agrees with their position.   They seem to find ways of dismissing them when it doesn't support their argument.

Hey, I consistently doubt defensive metrics.   

[DrungoHazewood]

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Its an interesting comparison:
                    G       Inn          CH    PO     A     DP     E    Rtot    Rdrs    Rtot/yr    Rdrs/yr
Swanson     150    1335.1    550   177   365   74     8      8          6         7             5    
Mateo         136    1147.2    552   160   375   81    17    3         13         3           14

Despite around 188 less innings, Mateo's had more chances, 10 more assists, 7 more DPs but made 9 more errors. This tells me that Mateo probably has more range and a better arm and turns the DP better. The errors is what killed Mateo's OAA, but he clearly brings that exciting range play that Swanson and others probably can't make.   

Another thing to consider is pitching staff.  The Braves pitchers have over 300(!) more strikeouts than the Orioles, meaning about 300 fewer balls in play.  A pretty fair number of those go towards the shortstop, so you could argue Mateo gets quite a few more opportunities than Swanson.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Or maybe your stats aren't Gospel.

OAA is pretty solid.  Where did you start, how hard was it hit, how far did you have to go, what was the hang time, how often does an average player make that play?  All tracked with pretty darned high precision.  I don't know what else you'd want out of a metric.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Or maybe your stats aren't Gospel.

I actually don’t disagree with you.  OAA seems to be the best stat out there but I do think defensive stats are far from perfect.

That said, I am 100% sure that you aren’t an authority on defense and how everyone else in the majors plays the position, so those defensive stats are far more of a basis of reality than your eyes and “knowledge” of other SS.

[Pickles]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

OAA is pretty solid.  Where did you start, how hard was it hit, how far did you have to go, what was the hang time, how often does an average player make that play?  All tracked with pretty darned high precision.  I don't know what else you'd want out of a metric.

I've written about it before but I think you run into the limitations of what you CAN know and extrapolating out past that is dangerous.

[Pickles]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I actually don’t disagree with you.  OAA seems to be the best stat out there but I do think defensive stats are far from perfect.

That said, I am 100% sure that you aren’t an authority on defense and how everyone else in the majors plays the position, so those defensive stats are far more of a basis of reality than your eyes and “knowledge” of other SS.

If I was on an island here you might have a point.  But it's not just me.  It's Jim Freaking Palmer too.  And we're hardly alone.

And you can dismiss Palmer as exaggerating but I don't.  Palmer watched JJ Hardy win 3 gold gloves in a row just a few years ago for us, and while he was highly complimentary of his defense, he didn't say the things about Hardy that he is saying about Mateo.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

If I was on an island here you might have a point.  But it's not just me.  It's Jim Freaking Palmer too.  And we're hardly alone.

And you can dismiss Palmer as exaggerating but I don't.  Palmer watched JJ Hardy win 3 gold gloves in a row just a few years ago for us, and while he was highly complimentary of his defense, he didn't say the things about Hardy that he is saying about Mateo.

Palmer doesn’t likely watch everyone either.  You can be in the island but it’s a small and foolish island when you ignore other facts that aren’t just the opinion of a broadcaster.

[RZNJ]

I think Mateo is very, very good but he plays with a little bit of mustard/flash that makes things look better than they are sometimes.  He goes into the hole and throws the 2 hopper to 1B and it looks fabulous.   Hardy may or may not have gotten to the ball but if Hardy does get to it, he plants his foot and throws a chest high strike to 1B.    Time lost on planting his feet gained back on the throw to 1B.   

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Palmer doesn’t likely watch everyone either.  You can be in the island but it’s a small and foolish island when you ignore other facts that aren’t just the opinion of a broadcaster.

Palmer's been watching and closely involved in Major League Baseball for sixty years now.  I think he has some authority on this issue and he's hardly just some "broadcaster."  And it's not like it's just the two of us.  There's been plenty of ink spilled this summer over how well Mateo's playing SS in a broad array of publications.