Should/Will the O’s Exercise the Jordan Lyles Option?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

A one-year deal at $11 mm is not high risk.  It may be unwise.   

He’s a high risk of not being good even if the contract itself isn’t a high risk.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What was best case scenario for him was a down offensive year and Walltimore.  He is a guy who is an extreme home run pitcher and ended up playing in a park that moved the wall back and made it easier to not allow homers.

But in a scenario where everything fell into place for him, he still was below average.

According to Fangraphs Lyles was worth 11.5M last year and as far as I know he’ll be pitching his home games in the same park if the Orioles resign him.

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

According to Fangraphs Lyles was worth 11.5M last year and as far as I know he’ll be pitching his home games in the same park if the Orioles resign him.

So what?

According to FG he was worth 1.4 WAR. If you can’t find 1.4 WAR for less money, you aren’t a good GM.

Thats where WAR and the value of it is completed misused.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So what?

According to FG he was worth 1.4 WAR. If you can’t find 1.4 WAR for less money, you aren’t a good GM.

Thats where WAR and the value of it is completed misused.

I think we were all somewhat surprised he got (effectively) $8M last year and $10M would again be an overpay. But I have to say I really saw the value of a rubber arm innings eater. Does his individual WAR capture the effect it has on the team to get 175 dependable innings?  

I will not be upset if we lose him, also won't be upset if we resign him, depending on how the rest of the offseason shakes out. If Lyles costs us the ability to make a competitive offer to Degrom, I'd be against signing Lyles. If we can get both, I will not be complaining at all about that outcome. I tend to doubt that a 1 year commitment of $10M will make much difference to our ability to commit to Degrom types. Maybe we can get a Lyles replacement for $5M but I'm not going to upset about a slight overpay for a known quantity who fits with the team and ballpark etc.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So what?

According to FG he was worth 1.4 WAR. If you can’t find 1.4 WAR for less money, you aren’t a good GM.

Thats where WAR and the value of it is completed misused.

I think you continuously overstate how easy it is to find decent Major League Baseball players.   Front-end relievers with ERA’s around 4 are a dime a dozen, starters who put up 1.4 fWAR seasons grow on trees, etc.

Look, obviously there are plenty of pitchers who put up 1.4 WAR seasons who are paid less than $11 mm.   There’s also a ton of pitchers who put up less than 1.4 WAR for more than $11 mm, and pitchers who get starts who turn out to be worse than so-called replacement value.   By my count, there were 90 starters in MLB who did better than 1.4 fWAR.   How many of them are available this offseason, and what will they cost?  Who could we get who is at least as good as Lyles, but cheaper than $11 mm?  (By the way, I’m not suggesting there aren’t any available.   But I certainly don’t think there’s a long list of them.)

If you are suggesting we could get a cheaper one via trade, I’d respond that the value of the players we trade away has to be considered part of the cost of that player.   And if you’re suggesting we could get 1.4 fWAR from one of our internal options who wasn’t already in our plans for 2022, who is it?

All this sounds like I’m defending keeping Lyles.   I’m not.  I voted that we shouldn’t and won’t keep him. But I don’t think it’s a no-brainer, risk free decision.  1.4 fWAR starters don’t fall out of trees.   

[SpOkane]

Starters that fall out of trees seem like injury risks. Pass.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So what?

According to FG he was worth 1.4 WAR. If you can’t find 1.4 WAR for less money, you aren’t a good GM.

Thats where WAR and the value of it is completed misused.

I'm not ruling out other options but in a vacuum, I'm okay with resigning Lyles.   Every deal doesn't need to be a home run.   It's basically a one-year deal.   There's not much financial risk involved.   He's a good bet to give us another 180 innings.    I realize that you are a great GM.   Who else would have been able to replace Jorge Mateo (earning less than 1M and worth 29M) and replace him with Paul DeJong (worth .7M and making 6M in 2022 and 9M in 2023) ?

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think you continuously overstate how easy it is to find decent Major League Baseball players.   Front-end relievers with ERA’s around 4 are a dime a dozen, starters who put up 1.4 fWAR seasons grow on trees, etc.

Look, obviously there are plenty of pitchers who put up 1.4 WAR seasons who are paid less than $11 mm.   There’s also a ton of pitchers who put up less than 1.4 WAR for more than $11 mm, and pitchers who get starts who turn out to be worse than so-called replacement value.   By my count, there were 90 starters in MLB who did better than 1.4 fWAR.   How many of them are available this offseason, and what will they cost?  Who could we get who is at least as good as Lyles, but cheaper than $11 mm?  (By the way, I’m not suggesting there aren’t any available.   But I certainly don’t think there’s a long list of them.)

If you are suggesting we could get a cheaper one via trade, I’d respond that the value of the players we trade away has to be considered part of the cost of that player.   And if you’re suggesting we could get 1.4 fWAR from one of our internal options who wasn’t already in our plans for 2022, who is it?

All this sounds like I’m defending keeping Lyles.   I’m not.  I voted that we shouldn’t and won’t keep him. But I don’t think it’s a no-brainer, risk free decision.  1.4 fWAR starters don’t fall out of trees.   

The average MLB ERA in 2022 was 3.96.

Lyles was 94th in the majors in ERA for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.

61 pitchers threw at least 150 innings And only 10 had a worse ERA than Lyles.

So, while you can say the innings are hard to come by (because they are), that doesn’t mean they are quality innings and quite frankly, if you have a good pen, I would rather have a better pitcher throwing 140 innings.

Just a quick look at that list, I would guess at least Half of the pitchers made less than Lyles last year.

Last year, Wells, Kremer and Voth all had a better ERA+. Bradish didn’t but I bet he did in the second half of the season.  You have GRod this year who should be better than that and Hall certainly can be.  Plus, seeing as this board now believes Elias can turn chicken sh!t into chicken salad, you should have confidence that he can find another mediocre guy.

On top of that, we need real improvements and better guys at the top and have the prospects and money to spend to do it. 
 

So yes, I do think it would be rather easy to get mediocrity, especially in a park that is now playing as a pitchers park and a defense that should be very good.   
 

Mediocrity needs help and the Os can give that help.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The average MLB ERA in 2022 was 3.96.

Lyles was 94th in the majors in ERA for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings.

61 pitchers threw at least 150 innings And only 10 had a worse ERA than Lyles.

So, while you can say the innings are hard to come by (because they are), that doesn’t mean they are quality innings and quite frankly, if you have a good pen, I would rather have a better pitcher throwing 140 innings.

Just a quick look at that list, I would guess at least Half of the pitchers made less than Lyles last year.

I expect so, but how many of them are available?  Most are probably younger guys who aren’t eligible for free agency.

 Kluber signed for 1/$8 mm last year, and was a bit better than Lyles in 164 innings.  Assuming we could get him for another $8 mm, would you rather have Kluber?  He’ll be 37 next year.   

Again, I’d rather pay more and get a clear upgrade than get Lyles or his equivalent.   
 

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect so, but how many of them are available?  Most are probably younger guys who aren’t eligible for free agency.

 Kluber signed for 1/$8 mm last year, and was a bit better than Lyles in 164 innings.  Assuming we could get him for another $8 mm, would you rather have Kluber?  He’ll be 37 next year.   

Again, I’d rather pay more and get a clear upgrade than get Lyles or his equivalent.   
 

No I don’t want Kluber either.

Theres always a price to pay but that’s what happens when you get much better

 

[SteveA]

Even if you are in favor of bringing him back (which I am not), I ask you this...

If we don't exercise the option and he is a free agent, how much will he end up getting?   Will he get $11 million guaranteed?    I tend to doubt it.

So if you are inclined to bring him back, I would say don't exercise the option and see if you can get him cheaper.

Our payroll will go up but I doubt it goes over $110 million.   I don't think we should be spending 10% of our entire payroll on a below average pitcher.   I think anyone who is eating up at least a tenth of our payroll should be an above average player.

[foxfield]

10M for Lyles is not a great investment most likely.  But, it depends on what the plan is and what they believe they get for 10M.  IF for example they added two SP that would slot as typical #2's at say 75M, slotted a back up catcher cheap and one bat at 20M...I would consider Lyles a pretty damn decent insurance policy to keep innings down on Grod, Means and maybe a few others.  Having your worst SP be Lyles is certainly not a terrible deal.

By the same token, if he is plan A and the hope is Grod, Means and Hall are all healthy and great....well, I don't like that.

To me what they do with Lyles depends on the rest of what they do.  Unfortunately, they will tip their hand on Lyles before we see anything else.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, SteveA said:

 

Our payroll will go up but I doubt it goes over $110 million.   I don't think we should be spending 10% of our entire payroll on a below average pitcher.   I think anyone who is eating up at least a tenth of our payroll should be an above average player.

Putting aside Lyles for a minute, I don’t think the percentage of payroll analysis is meaningful on a team where almost all the players are either pre-Arb or in early Arb years.  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Putting aside Lyles for a minute, I don’t think the percentage of payroll analysis is meaningful on a team where almost all the players are either pre-Arb or in early Arb years.  

No, it doesn’t matter but there is an opportunity cost that has to be factored in and the Os have a finite amount of resources.

That said they should be able to spend so much more money that it doesn’t matter too much.

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/relief-in-relief-pitching-starters-cant-seem-to-find-it/

This piece mischievously concludes a playoff team might be better off rostering its top AAA relievers before its 4th or 5th starters for playoff series these days.   

With anecdotes like nobody can score on anybody until all the 1-inning guys turns are finished and, welp, time for Corey Kluber to go on in.

I am happy for Syndergaard tonight PHI is giving him a shot in his regular role without making him piggyback Bailey Falter or Andrew Bellatti or something.     But there's a choice borne of necessity as they have run out of better pitchers.

In 2022 Orioles terms, this choice would have been like Nick Vespi or Jordan Lyles for the first weekend.