Will Elias offer more than 3 years to any FA pitcher?

[wildcard]

MLBTR projects that Senga will get 5 years and Taillon, Walker and Manaea will get 4 years.  Of course that does not mean it will happen.  I am not sure Elias goes more that 3 years on any FA pitcher.

What do you think?

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

MLBTR projects that Senga will get 5 years and Taillon, Walker and Manaea will get 4 years.  Of course that does not mean it will happen.  I am not sure Elias goes more that 3 years on any FA pitcher.

What do you think?

I'm wondering why you think he won't go more than 3 years. Is it because you think he doesn't think any of the FA pitchers are worth more years?

I'm pretty sure the Angelos rule about not signing pitchers long-term is long gone

[wildcard]

I see FA as supplementary to the O's plan.  They have starters Grayson, Kremer, Bradish,  and Hall that they will build around.  Means, Voth, Wells  are other contributors.  Any FA starter is additive to that group IMO.

Elias seems to have  the  opinion that pitchers in general are more high risk of injury than position players.   So he probably will not pay large sums for them IMO.

He is unlikely to go 100m for deGrom or Rodon  or 40m per for Verlander.  Nor do  those pitchers see Baltimore as their preferred landing spot.  5 years for Senga who has never pitched in the majors is also high risk.

Because of the success that Holt and company has shown in improving pitchers I think it more likely that the O's are projecting which FA starter they can improve to join the rotation.  And 3 years is about the top end on what their risk tolerance would be.  JMO

Edited November 12, 2022 by wildcard

[owknows]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Will Elias offer more than 3 years to any FA pitcher?

You misspelled million.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I see FA as supplementary to the O's plan.  They have starters Grayson, Kremer, Bradish,  and Hall that they will build around.  Means, Voth, Wells  are other contributors.  Any FA starter is additive to that group IMO.

Elias seems to have  the  opinion that pitchers in general are more high risk of injury than position players.   So he probably will not pay large sums for them IMO.

He is unlikely to go 100m for deGrom or Rodon  or 40m per for Verlander.  Nor do  those pitchers see Baltimore as their preferred landing spot.  5 years for Senga who has never pitched in the majors is also high risk.

Because of the success that Holt and company has shown in improving pitchers I think it more likely that the O's are projecting which FA starter they can improve to join the rotation.  And 3 years is about the top end on what their risk tolerance would be.  JMO

I don’t think Senga is as high risk as you ….if he will sign for 5/75 as predicted you jump all over it.

[RZNJ]

How many established #1-#3 starters are available for less than three years?   Of course, this is where a trade becomes the possibility over FA acquisition for the pitcher.   We have Mateo, Urías, Hays, Mullins, Santander, and possibly Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and maybe Hall, all in the mix for the right guy.

Maybe Elias catches a big fish in a trade.  Pun intended.

[Sports Guy]

Better question is this…how many pitchers will get and are worth more than 3 years?

Not sure I see one.  

[pdiddy]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Better question is this…how many pitchers will get and are worth more than 3 years?

Not sure I see one.  

You’re right - history shows most FA aren’t generally worth it long term. But I think the team is close enough to pay 3 to 5 years for 2 to 3 years of production in this upcoming window.

Win.

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

You’re right - history shows most FA aren’t generally worth it long term. But I think the team is close enough to pay 3 to 5 years for 2 to 3 years of production in this upcoming window.

I don't think the O's will ever want to do that.   Events could make it happen but its not something they will plan to do.

Edited November 12, 2022 by wildcard

[pdiddy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think the O's will ever want to to do that.   Events could make it happen but its not some they will plan to do.

If they draw a line in the sand on length of contract you mean? Otherwise you just never know - teams just have to get lucky on longer deals. Or be willing to take that risk vs the potential WS window.

I think there’s a little higher chance because the payroll is so low and Elias *should* have leeway given his track record, but you’re probably right.

I think a lot about what could have been if they’d gotten something better than Ubaldo in 2014, but honestly I don’t know who that would have been. Garza would have been worse, Santana great but after suspension, which would have been ugly. It’s a crapshoot.

 

[IPlayGM]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t think Senga is as high risk as you ….if he will sign for 5/75 as predicted you jump all over it.

Agreed. This would be my target.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think the O's will ever want to to do that.   Events could make it happen but its not some they will plan to do.

The truth is, you never really know.   You do expect players to become less productive when they reach a certain age.  But exactly what age, and how quickly they lose production, varies a ton from player to player.  Generally, the plan is not to pay the player “what he’s worth” in the early years and then overpay in the later years.  The plan is to underpay in the early years and that will make up for the overpayment in the later years.   

Take Manny for example.  He got paid $30 mm this year, but was worth $59 mm at FA prices.  That excess value pretty much pays for the final year of his contract at age 35 even if he produces zero that year.  Altogether, he’s had a cumulative excess of about $31 mm so far.   Probably would have been more, but the 2020 season in which he was 3rd in the MVP voting was cut short.   

 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

How many established #1-#3 starters are available for less than three years?   Of course, this is where a trade becomes the possibility over FA acquisition for the pitcher.   We have Mateo, Urías, Hays, Mullins, Santander, and possibly Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and maybe Hall, all in the mix for the right guy.

Maybe Elias catches a big fish in a trade.  Pun intended.

Thats true and if he's signing 2 bats we will have a surplus of guys to trade from. I think Mateo has value if you are signing Correa. I think Hays has value if you are adding Nimmo, Matsuaka etc

[btdart20]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Thats true and if he's signing 2 bats we will have a surplus of guys to trade from. I think Mateo has value if you are signing Correa. I think Hays has value if you are adding Nimmo, Matsuaka etc

Mateo and Hays have whatever value they currently have regardless of who we sign.  Both are replaceable in house.

To the OP:  I can see a game of options being on the table too.  Like a player option as a hedge for health and allow them to get paid later for performance.  Say 2-3 years for $20m and an option for 1-2 years $15-17m (just making up numbers for a phantom SP).

[Just Regular]

Good question that really gets at the guts of what if any Jayson Werth-ish tax BAL may need to pay to win a bid after years in the wilderness.

Having that Jon Gray-Steven Matz guy in the middle is about as basic as the roof on your house.

To exaggerate some (I hope), I think it is about as likely Bradish and Kremer fail to hold rotation jobs for 32 starts as it is they beat league average SP ERA.   

Elias is advancing to the bigger ticket phases of the big game; for all he's accomplished in other phases, there's no track record here yet.     Time to pay someone better than Chirinos-Odor-Lyles a Going Rate, appropriate to the Better Team he's built.