Eovaldi vs Bassitt

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

This starter search is beginning to have a Ubaldo Jimenez feel to it.   A starter has a good season and the O's sign him for 3 or 4 years and wishes they hadn't.

That's simply the reality of shopping in the lower tiers of free agent starting pitching. If you are unwilling to pay for a Justin Verlander, you are unlikely to get a Justin Verlander type of performance.

[MarCakes21]

17 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

If the Orioles signed two players that received a qualifying offer, the penalty would result in the team losing its third- and fourth-highest picks (their Competitive Balance Round B selection after the second round and their third round pick).

I like this option.  If you're gonna go in on FA, go in.

[Just Regular]

 

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This starter search is beginning to have a Ubaldo Jimenez feel to it.   A starter has a good season and the O's sign him for 3 or 4 years and wishes they hadn't.

Ubaldo and Cobb were bad outcomes, but its sound process to try and get better pitchers.     The Angeloses in some kind of hands over their ears position (Davis!  Ubaldo!  Cobb!) is a path flirting with suffocating 2/6ths of their assured Adley teams.

That said, I do picture kind of a sliding scale with 2023 rentals and any pleasant LTC news from Sarasota this spring.   If Jordan Lyles is the top FA "win" in the market, for PR purposes there's I guess at better chance at purchasing control of a Cedric Mullins or Jordan Westburg FA season, or maybe something even better.

I think there's some chance the Owners deciding on the really important things aren't in place yet.

[btdart20]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty good chance the 2025 infield has Gunnar at 3B and Holliday at SS. That means Westburg, Norby, Ortiz, and Hernaiz are playing 2B here, another position here, or somewhere else.  Saying this makes it seem impossible for Coby Mayos future as an Oriole to be at 3B.   Not even worry about Bencosme, Carter Young, etc. until they make noise at AA.

This is basically what I'm thinking too. 

Which means:

1. Mateo/Urias are currently tradeable

2. at least 1 from the Westburg/Norby/Ortiz/Hernaiz grouping is tradeable as well.

3. package with Hays seems like a strong offer for a #2 SP.

  3b. or even with Santander/Mountcastle if we can replace their offense (or 1B) through FA

  3c. or even Mullins if we can replace his offense/defense through FA (but I don't currently see 1 guy who does both) for a #1.

 

Regarding the OP:  From a park factor perspective, Eovaldi likely benefits the most.  The move for Bassitt is negligible.  Taillon might benefit a little, but it's basically a bump too.  I'd be fine adding any one of these at near/above market value. 

With this crew, it's really hard to fully lean on history because of health.  Obviously, health is a big factor.  But so is stuff/velo.  If we want upside potential on a budget, then we'll be moving up the risk factor distribution curve.

I'd probably rank them Taillon, Bassitt, Eovaldi, Syndergaard.  Top three are pretty close.  Just looking at stats/stuff, there's a gap to Syndergaard due to the drop in velo and movement.  But he feels like a wildcard a bit.  He's gone from relying on his 4-seamer to a sinker.  The barrel% and HH% percentile rankings are odd too (barrels are really bad, HH is pretty good).  I'm missing something.  Maybe Elias and crew sees something I'm not.

[RZNJ]

Ubaldo had wide variances in his performance before we signed him.  These pitchers history is less volatile when only considering performance.

[emmett16]

23 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

3 Year Average ERA+

Lopez: 119

Eovaldi: 120

Bassitt: 128

Taillon: 100 

Eovaldi has been a tick better than Lopez but Lopez has a better health record and adding him will not help our divisional rival by giving them an extra draft pick. Lopez would require trade capital but be much cheaper in terms of payroll allocation.

Bassitt has been the best of the bunch but is also the oldest and will require the highest salary in addition to a compensation draft pick for the Mets.

Taillon is only a marginal improvement over what Lyles gave us last year and should not even be in the discussion if we are actually trying to meaningfully improve.

I would love to add both Bassitt and Lopez, but I guess I would choose Bassitt if I can only have one since he only costs money and a compensation pick (unless he requires more than 3 years, then I'd prefer Lopez).

Thanks for posting those stats.  Pretty eye opening.  I thought their ERA+ would have been closer.  I thought that maybe Taillon 3 year ERA+ might be lower than last year, but sure enough he was league average with a 100 last year as well.  I officially change my FA 'realistic' wish list to: 1. Bassitt 2. Eovaldi and no longer interested in Taillon  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

20 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Thanks for posting those stats.  Pretty eye opening.  I thought their ERA+ would have been closer.  I thought that maybe Taillon 3 year ERA+ might be lower than last year, but sure enough he was league average with a 100 last year as well.  I officially change my FA 'realistic' wish list to: 1. Bassitt 2. Eovaldi and no longer interested in Taillon  

No problem. And yeah, I really don't get the widespread interest in Taillon. His ERA+'s for his last 3 seasons are 106, 100, and 100 and he only averages around 5 innings per start, so he's basically just a #4 starter that doesn't even eat innings.

I think I'd rather just give that rotation spot to Wells honestly.

[Just Regular]

Some are betting on the come in Syndergaard hoping his stuff returns more further post-procedure....that's kind of same story with Taillon's 2021-2022.

Yankee Stadium's HR friendliness for LHB makes it tough for a RHP to keep a good ERA.

Pitchers with 250 IP last 2 years K-BB - just 83 guys MLB-wide have sustained 2-year, 125 IP/year pace:

Rodon 4th, Ohtani 6th, Lynn 17th, Eovaldi 20th, Pablo 28th, Manaea 30th, Bassitt 39th, Taillon 45th, Taijuan 58th, Lyles 67th

Taillon pushed his K/BB from 3-ish in 2021 to 5-ish last year.

I don't want to oversell - Taillon, Manaea, Taijuan - all of them more 162-tools to get you your 86 wins and then maybe get left off the playoff roster when Grayson and Felix take "all the innings".    I agree Bassitt and Eovaldi probably a cut better where the October roster decision vs. Noah Denoyer is easier.

I do see some urgency with "86-win" helpers for 2023 alone as I hope 2024 and onwards playoff probabilities run high 24/7/365.

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Just Regular

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

No problem. And yeah, I really don't get the widespread interest in Taillon. His ERA+'s for his last 3 seasons are 106, 100, and 100 and he only averages around 5 innings per start, so he's basically just a #4 starter that doesn't even eat innings.

I think I'd rather just give that rotation spot to Wells honestly.

I think there have been good arguments for Bassitt over Taillon but let’s be accurate.  Taillon averaged just a hair under 5 2/3 per start (5.53) and Bassitt was 6 (6.03).  So Bassit averaged between 1/3 and 2/3 inning more per start.

Jordan Lyles, the innings eater, threw 2 more innings than Taillon in the same number of starts.

Edited November 23, 2022 by RZNJ

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think there have been good arguments for Bassitt over Taillon but let’s be accurate.  Taillon averaged just a hair under 5 2/3 per start (5.53) and Bassitt was 6 (6.03).  So Bassit averaged between 1/3 and 2/3 inning more per start.

Post-surgery (2021 + 2022), Taillon has averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start. That is what whoever signs him will most likely be getting.

17 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Yankee Stadium's HR friendliness for LHB makes it tough for a RHP to keep a good ERA.

Taillon's ERA has been significantly better when pitching at Yankee Stadium over the last 2 years than when pitching on the road.

[interloper]

I have a hard time complaining about any of these "second tier" guys. None of them carry the risk of guys like Ubaldo or Cobb or even Lyles. All of them would upgrade the rotation. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by interloper

[Just Regular]

Day before Thanksgiving continues as a holiday if you are a certain kind of baseball nut as the upcoming year's Baseball Forecaster PDF has once again published at this point in the calendar.

I'd already personally seen Syndergaard as more like Lyles, in contrast to say Manaea-Taillon who feel to me resemble Bassitt more than Lyles.    It had the detail on Syndergaard 2022 splits that his K rate was down to 12% v. LHB.    So for OPACY...yeah, no.

Point granted @DrinkinWithFermion the home-road splits in Taillon's particular case, but meant that more generically about ERA as a non-elite outcome stat where being in a HR fortunate or unfortunate situation can skew it for any given pitcher any given year.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Post-surgery (2021 + 2022), Taillon has averaged less than 5 1/3 innings per start. That is what whoever signs him will most likely be getting.

Taillon's ERA has been significantly better when pitching at Yankee Stadium over the last 2 years than when pitching on the road.

Pre surgery. 2019. Taillon 5.96 IPS.  Post surgery 2021. 4.96.  2022 5.53.  It was nice of you to average 2021 and 2022 together but common sense tells us pitchers get stronger and more durable the further they get away f rom the TJ surgery.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pre surgery. 2019. Taillon 5.96 IPS.  Post surgery 2021. 4.96.  2022 5.53.  It was nice of you to average 2021 and 2022 together but common sense tells us pitchers get stronger and more durable the further they get away f rom the TJ surgery.

Maybe, but he's still not very good and would only be a minimal upgrade over Lyles at a massive price hike.

[Jim'sKid26]

Eovaldi's average FB velocity has gone down each of the last 4 years. That is a rather big red flag for me. Couple that with the draft compensation needed to sign him, which by the way is going to a division rival, and I would pass. I think he's an interesting pitcher but I'm concerned the deal would have to be 4 years and with the declining FB velo I would not do it.