“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you look at all the historic data the chances of Cruz doing what Cruz did is extremely small, as in pretty much unprecedented.

Do you want your front office going with the mountain of data or going with a gut feeling that this is the one guy that is going to buck the odds?

I want them to take the pick and replace the player.  The real failure was in how they replaced the player.

I do wonder if they could have recouped another pick by hitting Nick with a QO.

Maybe if Duquette was not otherwise occupied .. worst debacle by a GM in major league history imho was the offseason after capturing the AL East. 

[forphase1]

Not signing Cruz was the smart, prudent GM move.  It just happened to backfire, against all odds.  

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Perhaps they should have known he was still on the juice, and would continue to be on the juice over the rest of his career.   Your average player doesn't age the way Nelson Cruz did.    He never failed a test.    There's no proof but something smell rotten in Denmark.    Were you in favor of signing Chris Davis?

Chris Davis had zero interest in improving his craft.  Zero. 

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

Not signing Cruz was the smart, prudent GM move.  It just happened to backfire, against all odds.  

Not for Seattle or the Twins but hey we loved going back to the cellar with our “prudent” intact.   Who did he replace him with , our smart, prudent GM? 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

How many games did he play after the sanctions?  8 years worth . Was he tested?  So you are either saying the testing is totally inept or that he was using substances that escaped detection.  And you think he was not subject to particular scrutiny due to prior offenses?  Yet he played 8 years with ZERO violations which would have cost him an entire season. 
 

So if you think it was steroids that had him playing a huge role in us winning the AL East then show me where you wanted him not signed or suspended during 2014 back then. 

And again you say all GMs knew this yet Oriole GM, Seattle GM, Twins GM etc all signed him?  Are they just stupid? 

https://www.twinkietown.com/platform/amp/2021/7/1/22557471/mlb-minnesota-twins-dh-steroids-should-not-be-synonymous-with-nelson-cruz

He never failed a test before BALCO but it was shown that he was getting supplied all of that time.   His career trajectory where he got better into this late 30's than he ever was before?   At the age of 33 Cruz had his best season by OPS (.856) in four years.  5 of his next 6 years going into his late 30's he was over .900.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck.

People will happily turn a blind eye to something that helps them.   It's not up to the GM's to prove Cruz used.   They simply signed him, with absolute plausible deniability.   They weren't stupid.   They got a great hitter.   As long as he passed his tests everyone was happy.    The question was if he's ever get unlucky and pop a positive for a test.   Yes, the tests are a joke.   Apparently, you have to be using and really, really unlucky or really stupid to get caught.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

He never failed a test before BALCO but it was shown that he was getting supplied all of that time.   His career trajectory where he got better into this late 30's than he ever was before?   At the age of 33 Cruz had his best season by OPS (.856) in four years.  5 of his next 6 years going into his late 30's he was over .900.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck.

People will happily turn a blind eye to something that helps them.   It's not up to the GM's to prove Cruz used.   They simply signed him, with absolute plausible deniability.   They weren't stupid.   They got a great hitter.   As long as he passed his tests everyone was happy.    The question was if he's ever get unlucky and pop a positive for a test.   Yes, the tests are a joke.   Apparently, you have to be using and really, really unlucky or really stupid to get caught.

Did he ever fail a test? 

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Chris Davis had zero interest in improving his craft.  Zero. 

Did you know that before they resigned him to the big contract.    He certainly improved from the time he was in Texas to his time in Baltimore.   Whatever it was, he went from a so-so player to the best slugger in baseball for a few years.

[forphase1]

12 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Not for Seattle or the Twins but hey we loved going back to the cellar with our “prudent” intact.   Who did he replace him with , our smart, prudent GM? 

Not signing Cruz was the smart, right move.  Not replacing him was foolish.  DD was right to not sign him (actual hindsight result notwithstanding) but very wrong to not replace him adequately.  But acting like his failure to replace him is proof he should have been kept isn't exactly right either. 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did he ever fail a test? 

No.  Just pointing out that they had been testing way before BALCO and he never tested positive.   The only reason his name is associated with steroids is because of BALCO.   Again 2+2+4.   He was obviously using and never tested positive.   Now, after he got nabbed in the BALCO investigation he had a decision to make.   I know which way I'm leaning on that one.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

24 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

So you are either saying the testing is totally inept or that he was using substances that escaped detection.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There is a reason why everyone that gets caught is using "old tech" and are almost always Latin American.

Just like there are so few caught using in the NBA/NFL/PGA/ITF ect.

[tntoriole]

11 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not signing Cruz was the smart, right move.  Not replacing him was foolish.  DD was right to not sign him (actual hindsight result notwithstanding) but very wrong to not replace him adequately.  But acting like his failure to replace him is proof he should have been kept isn't exactly right either. 

He should have been kept.  Period. 

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

He should have been kept.  Period. 

Not signing him was the right move.  Period. 

 

See I can do that too.    

[tntoriole]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He never failed a test before BALCO but it was shown that he was getting supplied all of that time.   His career trajectory where he got better into this late 30's than he ever was before?   At the age of 33 Cruz had his best season by OPS (.856) in four years.  5 of his next 6 years going into his late 30's he was over .900.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck.

People will happily turn a blind eye to something that helps them.   It's not up to the GM's to prove Cruz used.   They simply signed him, with absolute plausible deniability.   They weren't stupid.   They got a great hitter.   As long as he passed his tests everyone was happy.    The question was if he's ever get unlucky and pop a positive for a test.   Yes, the tests are a joke.   Apparently, you have to be using and really, really unlucky or really stupid to get caught.

Never saw any of us here on the OH bashing Nellie too much for this problem in 2014.  He says he didn’t, MLB didn’t suspend him, so I would have taken the production.. if it was such a problem why did they offer him even 3 years? Why sign him in 2014 even for one year? 
3years we don’t care if it is steroids but oh no, not going for that fourth year. 

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not signing him was the right move.  Period. 

 

See I can do that too.   

 

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not signing him was the right move.  Period. 

 

See I can do that too.    

Sure …81-81 in 2015 was just fine.