What will Cedric Mullins be in 2023?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no idea what’s better. You are guessing, as we all are.

There isn’t just one way to build a team, whether it’s the Os or anyone else.

The Astros “downgraded” at SS last year.  They won 106 games and won the WS.  To act as if losing Mullins is somehow going to be detrimental to the team is wrong, provided they improve other areas.

I have said it before…A Brett Philips and McKenna  platoon is likely an upgrade defensively and gives you very good speed.  There is also evidence that you can get a high 600s or maybe even low 700s OPS out of that.  That’s not much of a drop off at all And if Mullins allows you to get pitching that you need And is better short And long term from what you can buy, that is a smarter way to do things.

Brett Phillips?  Really.    Is that your solution to the team's low OBP.   You are making the problem worse.   If I was the one suggesting Phillips you would be having a hissy fit.

Edited November 27, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Brett Phillip?  Really.    Is that your solution to the team's low OBP.   You are making the problem worse.   If I was the one suggesting Phillips you would be having a hissy fit.

Phillips is an elite defensive player with very good speed and a career OPS vs righties of about 700.

A platoon can be very valuable.  This could easily be a Mateo situation. Elite defense at a key position but not a ton of offense although there is plenty of evidence that the offense would be better than Mateo.

That could easily be a 2-3 WAR situation.  And it’s just one of many options, especially if the team is going to be cheap. 

[MarCakes21]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

None that are as good as Mullins offensively, defensively and contract wise.   Nimmo is projected to get 5/110m.   Mullins will make  about 5m next year.

With the O's trying to make the playoffs next year the idea is to get better in CF not worse.  So no Kiermaier.

I think this is fair. Mullins is like Nimmo. Great to keep at the Arb prices, especially as a 2-3 win player (I’m hoping for more, but may be who he is). The just offer him a QO if they still exist or let him walk. 
 

another thought, are there particular guys you want on your team by war? Obviously we all need 2 war players, but if you have a good farm are those guys semi replaceable in FA or through a good system in call ups? You need the 5+ war guys for championships so you have to figure out how to get those in my opinion and best your competition. We are banking on adley/Gunnar/grod being that currently for the next 5-7 years and filling out the rest by other means. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Going from Mullins to Kiermaier is a downgrade and there is no proof that Cowser has anywhere close to the range of Mullins.  

Better to keep Mullins and sign a FA starter.

Stowers and Cowser will push Santander and Hays for playing time  in the near future but not quite yet.    I like the depth they provide.   Did you see how injuries hit Tampa last year?

I don’t think whether Cowser has the same range as Mullins is the right question.   Would the entire offensive and defensive package of Cowser in CF be better than Mullins’, or close enough that it would be worth it to have the pitching upgrade Mullins could bring?  And is that better than just keeping Mullins and signing a FA pitcher?  That is the relevant question.  

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think whether Cowser has the same range as Mullins is the right question.   Would the entire offensive and defensive package of Cowser in CF be better than Mullins’, or close enough that it would be worth it to have the pitching upgrade Mullins could bring?  And is that better than just keeping Mullins and signing a FA pitcher?  That is the relevant question.  

One of the reasons that the O's improved by 30 games is their defense.    When you downgrade the defense you damage the whole pitching staff.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One of the reasons that the O's improved by 30 games is their defense.    When you downgrade the defense you damage the whole pitching staff.

 

 

Run differential comes in many forms. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

One of the reasons that the O's improved by 30 games is their defense.    When you downgrade the defense you damage the whole pitching staff.

Mullins was rated at +11 and +8 outs above average the last two years.  Let’s call him +10.   Let’s assume Cowser’s a -5.   (I don’t know that he is, I’m just giving an illustration.).  And let’s assume that Cowser would have an OBP 30 points higher than Mullins, which means he’d be on base about 20 times more than Mullins in 675 PA.   So Cowser is allowing 15 more runners to reach base than Mullins would, but he’s getting on base 20 more times than Mullins would.  Do you prefer Mullins just because the defense is better with Mullins?   I don’t.

The above is intended as a realistic hypothetical.  I don’t actually know that the numbers would work out that way.

 

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins was rated at +11 and +8 outs above average the last two years.  Let’s call him +10.   Let’s assume Cowser’s a -5.   (I don’t know that he is, I’m just giving an illustration.).  And let’s assume that Cowser would have an OBP 30 points higher than Mullins, which means he’d be on base about 20 times more than Mullins in 675 PA.   So Cowser is allowing 15 more runners to reach base than Mullins would, but he’s getting on base 20 more times than Mullins would.  Do you prefer Mullins just because the defense is better with Mullins?   I don’t.

The above is intended as a realistic hypothetical.  I don’t actually know that the numbers would work out that way.

 

I think that between Hays, Cowser, Haskin, Adam Hall, Fabian, Beavers and Hodo.... I think we'll somehow be able to navigate the prospect of a future that doesn't include Mullins.

That doesn't mean we should trade him for a handful of magic beans... but if someone offers you something in a solid starter with equal or greater years of control... I think you have to do it.

Sooner or later we need to wake up to the fact that we have a LOT of really good Outfield and Middle Infield prospects working their way through the system... and that they can't all fit on the same Major League roster...  so we're going to have to deal some of them and use the proceeds to restock the farm, or supplement ML Roster areas of need.

To maximize our retained value, the players to move are those entering their arb years. Either extend them before arb... or move them sometime during arb... restock and supplement... lather, rinse, repeat.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think that between Hays, Cowser, Haskin, Adam Hall, Fabian, Beavers and Hodo.... I think we'll somehow be able to navigate the prospect of a future that doesn't include Mullins.

That doesn't mean we should trade him for a handful of magic beans... but if someone offers you something in a solid starter with equal or greater years of control... I think you have to do it.

Sooner or later we need to wake up to the fact that we have a LOT of really good Outfield and Middle Infield prospects working their way through the system... and that they can't all fit on the same Major League roster...  so we're going to have to deal some of them and use the proceeds to restock the farm, or supplement ML Roster areas of need.

To maximize our retained value, the players to move are those entering their arb years. Either extend them before arb... or move them sometime during arb... restock and supplement... lather, rinse, repeat.

If the O's are going to replace Mullins they should do it with someone the is offensively and defensively better in 2023.  I don't see that player in the O's organization right now.

I agree that the O's are going to have to move some outfielders at some point.   Santander's trade value will fall after the 2023 trade deadline because he is getting closer to FA.   The O's probably need him to begin the 2023 season but as Stowers gets more playing time he could be a replacement in RF/DH.

Hays when healthy is capable of putting up an 830 OPS.  He did it last year until late June.   But he is gets injured which hurts his production. Hays speed and arm work well in Camden's deep left field.   Cowser may fit in left after he proves himself at AAA.

I am not against trades or promoting prospects.  I just want the players that replace the current players to be better than what the O's have.   And the prospects to earn their way to the majors and be ready to help the team.

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins was rated at +11 and +8 outs above average the last two years.  Let’s call him +10.   Let’s assume Cowser’s a -5.   (I don’t know that he is, I’m just giving an illustration.).  And let’s assume that Cowser would have an OBP 30 points higher than Mullins, which means he’d be on base about 20 times more than Mullins in 675 PA.   So Cowser is allowing 15 more runners to reach base than Mullins would, but he’s getting on base 20 more times than Mullins would.  Do you prefer Mullins just because the defense is better with Mullins?   I don’t.

The above is intended as a realistic hypothetical.  I don’t actually know that the numbers would work out that way.

 

From what I have read Cowser is a corner outfielder.  Does not have the range for center.   Play him where he helps the team not where he hurts that team.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

If the O's are going to replace Mullins they should do it with someone the is offensively and defensively better in 2023.  I don't see that player in the O's organization right now.

 

If the O's are going to replace Mullins, they should do it with someone who makes the overall team offensively and defensively better in 2023. Perhaps you give up a little performance in center, to gain a little MORE performance in another position.

A GM's job is to maximize the performance of the team... not a particular position.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

If the O's are going to replace Mullins, they should do it with someone who makes the overall team offensively and defensively better in 2023. Perhaps you give up a little performance in center, to gain a little MORE performance in another position.

A GM's job is to maximize the performance of the team... not a particular position.

When you downgrade a position you downgrade the whole team.  Especially when there are other ways to improve the team.

[owknows]

Just now, wildcard said:

When you downgrade a position you downgrade the whole team.  Especially when there are other ways to improve the team.

You seem to be digging in your heels here, and I don't really understand why.

It seems to be your position, that it is impossible for the Orioles to trade Mullins for a hypothetical pitcher who would greatly improve the middle of the rotation, (and then replace him with a less capable internal option in center) and that this could result in a situation that is a downgrade in center... but an overall upgrade to the team as a whole.

Clearly it is possible. And I think you know this.

You could argue that it isn't easy to find such a deal... or that you'd want to be extra-cautious about it... but to argue that it is impossible is just silly.

 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

You seem to be digging in your heels here, and I don't really understand why.

It seems to be your position, that it is impossible for the Orioles to trade Mullins for a hypothetical pitcher who would greatly improve the middle of the rotation, (and then replace him with a less capable internal option in center) and that this could result in a situation that is a downgrade in center... but an overall upgrade to the team as a whole.

Clearly it is possible. And I think you know this.

You could argue that it isn't easy to find such a deal... or that you'd want to be extra-cautious about it... but to argue that it is impossible is just silly.

 

There is no need to trade Mullins and downgrade CF to get pitching. There are other ways to get pitching.

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is no need to trade Mullins and downgrade CF to get pitching. There are other ways to get pitching.

I don't think anyone is postulating that there is a need.

I think what is being considered, is whether there might be a net benefit.

You seem to be holding fast to the idea that there is no possible trade of Mullins for Pitching that might represent an overall benefit to the team.

I think you know that isn't the case.