“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

There’s a nuance with the semantics of the word “fair”. Fair in the market means more money and dollars on the back end that may not be as productive as you would like. When it comes to free agency in baseball currently “it cost what it cost”. And that’s just the way it is.

Why accept that status quo? 

What would be wrong with the Orioles taking an approach not to saddle themselves with those unproductive dollars on the back end by just not playing the long term FA game? 

It is an approach that has been proven to be incredibly successful for Houston, why do you think it wouldn't work in Batlimore?

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Why accept that status quo? 

What would be wrong with the Orioles taking an approach not to saddle themselves with those unproductive dollars on the back end by just not playing the long term FA game? 

It is an approach that has been proven to be incredibly successful for Houston, why do you think it wouldn't work in Batlimore?

There's a reason that you can only point to one singular model for this approach. Because it is very difficult to replicate. I am not that confident that the O's can nail everything perfectly to get there. Besides even with the Astros model, we will need to retain most of our stars. What makes you confident that this org will be willing to do that? 

By the way, the status quo for the Orioles is to continue to do nothing and go cheap like we have done the past 4 offseasons.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Bemorewins

[geschinger]

24 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

There's a reason that you can only point to one singular model for this approach. Because it is very difficult to replicate. I am not that confident that the O's can nail everything perfectly to get there. Besides even with the Astros model, we will need to retain most of our stars. What makes you confident that this org will be willing to do that? 

By the way, the status quo for the Orioles is to continue to do nothing and go cheap like we have done the past 4 offseasons.

If they are unwilling to spend money to extend some of their homegrown talent then they are deviating from that approach - and that would more like taking the TB approach which can also be successful but I'd argue is inferior.   Elias has said payroll will rise and  so far everything the Orioles have done during his tenure is consistent with the Astros approach.  Until I see the Orioles deviate from that approach I'm going to remain optimistic that they will.

Astros payroll was 30th on opening day 2016, the year after their big jump to 86 wins.  Opening day 2017 - league average.  It's not like the Orioles have the TB track record when it comes to spending.  Until I see some evidence otherwise I look at the past few years as the Orioles successfully implementing the tank portion of the Astros model almost to perfection considering where the farm system and young talent in the org is today.

Edited December 7, 2022 by geschinger

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, geschinger said:

If they are unwilling to spend money to extend some of their homegrown talent then they are deviating from that approach - and that would more like taking the TB approach which can also be successful but I'd argue is inferior.   Elias has said payroll will rise and  so far everything the Orioles have done during his tenure is consistent with the Astros approach.  Until I see the Orioles deviate from that approach I'm going to remain optimistic that they will.

Astros payroll was 30th on opening day 2016, the year after their big jump to 86 wins.  Opening day 2017 - league average.  It's not like the Orioles have the TB track record when it comes to spending.  Until I see some evidence otherwise I look at the past few years as the Orioles successfully implementing the tank portion of the Astros model almost to perfection considering where the farm system and young talent in the org is today.

So from this perspective what did his word choice of "lift off" mean"?

Also, the one caveat to consider with attempting to "copy and paste" the Astros approach to team construction is that we are in a different competitive environment in terms of the division. There will be no gimmes and no teams punting seasons like Tex and Sea did for much of Houston's run. Plus there are no clueless teams like the LA Angels for us to beat up on consistently. 

[geschinger]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So from this perspective what did his word choice of "lift off" mean"?

Also, the one caveat to consider with attempting to "copy and paste" the Astros approach to team construction is that we are in a different competitive environment in terms of the division. There will be no gimmes and no teams punting seasons like Tex and Sea did for much of Houston's run. Plus there are no clueless teams like the LA Angels for us to beat up on consistently. 

Why is that a caveat - do you think the Astros roster from the past several years wouldn't have played in the AL East?  They might not have won quite as many games but I don't look at their past several years and say they are only good becuase of their division.  

I never equated liftoff with going crazy in FA saddling the team with unproductive dollars when they are hopefully consistently contending.   Doing so would be detrimental to consistent success and a deviation from an approach we know can work.  What I hope it means is making some trades for players like Lopez and the absolute best use of payroll flexibility IMO is taking on salary to acquire talent at the trade deadline when teams out of it are looking to slash payroll.  And if any of these FAs aren't getting the long term deals they want - kind of a like a Correa last year - swoop in and try to get them on a prove-it contract.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's take it down a notch.

It's been pointed out that the budget increase will be likely spent on arbitration cases.  

I don't believe what I'm reading here.  We've got guys like Adley, Gunnar, G-Rod and a lot of other prospects that look like they could contribute, we've finally made inroads into the Dominican and look to have a strong presence there, we just won WAY more games this past season than anyone thought we were going to and people are UPSET BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY IN FREE AGENCY.

 

Add players that can help …not needing to catch lightning in a bottle. Gibson against another teams #1 is a joke.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Add players that can help …not needing to catch lightning in a bottle. Gibson against another teams #1 is a joke.

How often after opening day do we see #1's squaring off against each other?

[OriolesMagic83]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How often after opening day do we see #1's squaring off against each other?

It's easy for O's fans to forget there is a thing called the playoffs.

[Redskins Rick]

On 12/6/2022 at 6:33 AM, Can_of_corn said:

If you want to retract the sentiment admit you used the wrong term, don't blame others for misunderstanding.

Elias's lift off, was more of a dud, totally misfiring by not firing.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It's easy for O's fans to forget there is a thing called the playoffs.

Elias gave up on the playoff during the season, this year.

[interloper]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Elias's lift off, was more of a dud, totally misfiring by not firing.

It's December 7. You are judging the offseason on December 7. 

[jabba72]

Is it too late to post this?

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's December 7. You are judging the offseason on December 7. 

I do have to agree with you here.  The offseason isn't over.

I might not be happy with what I'm seeing but he has time.

[Just Regular]

Feels like about time for the Boras Stable to hit the pause button on everything, and re-work their asks.

That's probably the path to some top talent getting past the holidays.

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's December 7. You are judging the offseason on December 7. 

 

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do have to agree with you here.  The offseason isn't over.

I might not be happy with what I'm seeing but he has time.

 

I agree partially.  The FA market seems to be very hot, guys are flying off the market.  So if there's one or two players in FA that are at the top of Elias' list I hope he hustles and gets it done.  In the FA regard, I don't think it matters or not if it's December 7th, what matters is how quickly guys are being signed and how aggressive the market is.

If we're talking about trades, yeah, he's got time.