“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

In 17 the Astros highest paid SP who was there all year was Keuchel. Added Morton before the year. Had Fiers, McCullers, Peacock and Musgrove. McHugh made 12 starts. Traded for Verlander. 

I haven't had much luck googling to find a good free account of it, but those "methodical" Astros frustrated their clubhouse the Verlander year.     July 31 passed and they did nothing, and Dallas Keuchel was irate, basically giving Club-shaming quotes out in the heat of the moment.

They were fortunate Verlander was slumping and owed enough cash to be movable in the August waivers trade window, though I'd argue it was maybe competitive malpractice for some of the other Clubs competing with the Astros that year to have let him through.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Aren't you retired?  No need to be cranky, Froberto Clemente.  Pour yourself a Mai Tai and put your feet up.

Believe me, my feet were up when I wrote that.  But I don’t have Mai Tai’s before lunch!

[eddie83]

22 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My issue with Manaea is he's not appreciably better than what we have now. So what does the move really do for us in terms of building a roster to win a pennant? 

The other issue that I have with a signing like this is that there are better option out there. Thus, he represents the cheaper route. If we are going cheap now when we have a minuscule payroll, what does this say for our future approach when our own guys get more expensive?

I use Manaea as an example but yes he is better. Morton was not considered to be a great arm when Houston signed him. He had upside. 
 

I don’t agree you shouldn’t sign someone who isn’t an ace. The better options also come with higher risks. I don’t think the Orioles are that type of team. The risks I see them taking are more trade risks.  
 

I do agree this is the time to start spending. It does not have to be all this year. They do need to add. 
 

At the end of the day I just want to see additions this year that make the team better. I don’t care how much they make. That’s on Elias to figure that out. He will deserve criticism if he doesn’t.  

[Going Underground]

Astros do sign their own players to extensions. Altuve,Bregman and McCullers.Just signed Yonder Alvarez to a 6 yr/115 mm. contract. Be happy if the Orioles will do that on the young players 

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I haven't had much luck googling to find a good free account of it, but those "methodical" Astros frustrated their clubhouse the Verlander year.     July 31 passed and they did nothing, and Dallas Keuchel was irate, basically giving Club-shaming quotes out in the heat of the moment.

They were fortunate Verlander was slumping and owed enough cash to be movable in the August waivers trade window, though I'd argue it was maybe competitive malpractice for some of the other Clubs competing with the Astros that year to have let him through.

Yeah. Last minute. I think I kidded around the Orioles should trade for him. Only half kidding as well 

[geschinger]

20 minutes ago, deward said:

They also supported the 2015 team by trading for Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez at the deadline. They didn't keep trading away pieces. They didn't sign any big free agents going into 2016, but they did swing a big trade for Ken Giles. Fairly aggressive moves were made once the winning started.

Those are the kind of deals I would expect this offseason.  Low commitment veterans and  trades for young pitching.  

As for last year, if there was an expiring contract (like Kazmir) that could have been had for next to nothing other than taking ont he remaning salary to bolster their chances I wish the Orioles would have taken it.

Edited December 7, 2022 by geschinger

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Those are the kind of deals I would expect this offseason.  Low commitment veterans and  trades for young pitching.  

As for last year, if there was an expiring contract (like Kazmir) that could have been had for next to nothing other than taking ont he remaning salary to bolster their chances I wish the Orioles would have taken it.

Not that he could have been had for next nothing and maybe not at all but this is why I wanted Snell last season.

[geschinger]

10 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Astros do sign their own players to extensions. Altuve,Bregman and McCullers.Just signed Yonder Alvarez to a 6 yr/115 mm. contract. Be happy if the Orioles will do that on the young players 

Yep and most limited to early 30s.  I think Altuve is the only one to mid 30s and in his case it's only his age 34 year.  

They didn't even enter the bidding for Correa when it was clear Boras wanted him to sign a contract into his late 30s.

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not that he could have been had for next nothing and maybe not at all but this is why I wanted Snell last season.

If he was available for the right price that would have been an almost perfect scenario with no commitment past 2023.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

People keep saying things like this, but didn't they see Spenser Watkins, Michael Baumann and Bruce Zimmermann pitch last year?

The Orioles have a Stars and Scrubs roster that right now (unlike say the Giants) that is easy to improve.     A 1.5 win pitcher might push a 3-win improvement, but you still have to compete and win the bidding for that player.

All of those names you mentioned are our pitching "depth" at this point and are not projected to be in the starting rotation. 

That win margin that you mentioned won't effectively make up the difference for the playoffs. It just makes us "marginally better". I would argue what's the difference between 81 and 85 wins really? None of that will get you to be good enough to reach the post season.

To be clear I don't want the Orioles to make meaningless, marginal signings just to say "we did something". I believe that their best course is to add difference makers (who are still out there by the way) who can reasonably get us into a realistic conversation for contention.

IMO right now, we are not there and haven't added anything to get us closer.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I use Manaea as an example but yes he is better. Morton was not considered to be a great arm when Houston signed him. He had upside. 
 

I don’t agree you shouldn’t sign someone who isn’t an ace. The better options also come with higher risks. I don’t think the Orioles are that type of team. The risks I see them taking are more trade risks.  
 

I do agree this is the time to start spending. It does not have to be all this year. They do need to add. 
 

At the end of the day I just want to see additions this year that make the team better. I don’t care how much they make. That’s on Elias to figure that out. He will deserve criticism if he doesn’t.  

I absolutely AGREE wholeheartedly with the bolded portion of your post.

My issue with trades that aren't supplemented with free agents is that most tradable pitchers that have been discussed as realistic target for us only have 2 years left of controllability (i.e. Pablo Lopez). If we are not going to make the rest of the roster good enough to make a serious run next year, then that only leaves us with 1 year of the said pitcher to be under contract. Then we will have to pay them anyway when our roster costs have gone up. Why not pay now when our payroll is so low? It's not going to get any lower in the foreseeable future.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

All of those names you mentioned are our pitching "depth" at this point and are not projected to be in the starting rotation. 

I'll even guess it is a 6-man rotation to protect Tyler Wells shoulder.    How far into the season would you guess Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Grayson Rodriguez can go 85-ish pitches every 6th game without interruption or ineffectiveness by anyone?

The 2022 Orioles were one of the most fun teams ever, but "keeping the band together" feels off.    They were so much fun because they weren't supposed to be any good.    I hope we do better by Adley Year 2 than relying on a waiver claim to lead the Bulk Guys in peripherals.     By all means keep making lemonade from lemons, but couldn't Holt make something tastier with sugar or alcohol?

It won't be a trading Mookie Betts affront to the baseball gods if Voth or Wells has to do the Rodrigo Lopez/John Means job to open the year, or Joey Krehbiel can't make the team.

I'll guess two of the Top 6 above end 2023 with <0.0 WAR.     Replacement level is also just an imagine - somebody has to pitch April 30th, and they can do worse.     Its possible Grayson will be throttled for strategery as well, though I hope the play is its okay to burn him to keep the team more competitive until the midseason realignment of talent.

The league has labor peace and bonus cash - might be that zero of the performers who are any good get past Christmas.

 

[geschinger]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I absolutely AGREE wholeheartedly with the bolded portion of your post.

My issue with trades that aren't supplemented with free agents is that most tradable pitchers that have been discussed as realistic target for us only have 2 years left of controllability (i.e. Pablo Lopez). If we are not going to make the rest of the roster good enough to make a serious run next year, then that only leaves us with 1 year of the said pitcher to be under contract. Then we will have to pay them anyway when our roster costs have gone up. Why not pay now when our payroll is so low? It's not going to get any lower in the foreseeable future.

This is a feature not a bug.  You get him for 2 years at a reasonable rate and if it works out you give him a 28 year old a fair market extension.  If it doesn't it's easy to move on.  That is preferable to making a 5-6 year commitment at top dollar to a 30+ year old pitcher.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

This is a feature not a bug.  You get him for 2 years at a reasonable rate and if it works out you give him a 28 year old a fair market extension.  If it doesn't it's easy to move on.  That is preferable to making a 5-6 year commitment at top dollar to a 30+ year old pitcher.

There’s a nuance with the semantics of the word “fair”. Fair in the market means more money and dollars on the back end that may not be as productive as you would like. When it comes to free agency in baseball currently “it cost what it cost”. And that’s just the way it is.

[Just Regular]

You'd hope for a little incumbency advantage if Elias/Adley continue growing the brand well, and if Pablo's good enough the QO is still around for now.