“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[Just Regular]

Scott Feldman got himself 3 years from those Astros decision scientists.

But granted going short term with pitchers is a feature not a bug, keeping even Perfect Pitcher Justin Verlander to 2-year chunks being the clearest example.

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Free agent signings are sexier than trades. The irony of that is the big website that splashes the FA signings is call mlbTRADErumors.com. 

 

Sure. That’s because people equate wanting to win with spending money. 

[Hank Scorpio]

8 minutes ago, deward said:

Everything Elias has done up to this point falls within his wheelhouse of previous expertise. THIS part does not. I think it's fair to withhold judgement and harbor some concerns until we see the full off-season plan play out.

Isn't pissing and moaning the entire reason to have an internet message board? 

It IS one of the basic tenets yes.

By all means, piss & moan away! I'm not pissing & moaning about the pissing & moaning. I'm just saying... we could seriously go 104-58 and not spend money in the offseason and people would still complain. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Sure. That’s because people equate wanting to win with spending money. 

Yes, however, spending money just to spend money (cough Aaron Judge to the Yankees cough) doesn't equate to winning.

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

My problems with just running back the same team are:

1) Sophomore slumps are a thing sometimes

2) You can never count on pitching prospects, even great ones

3) It's probably unrealistic to expect every rookie to have a dramatic impact. Planning on Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser to come up and immediately set the world on fire is probably a mistake.

4) The biggest one - I'm concerned that Kremer/Voth/Bradish pitched over their heads last year

A lot of things went right to end up with the record they did in 2022, counting on it to all go right again seems like a mistake.

I don't disagree with any of that.  I share the same concerns, too.

I will say this, though.  I am impressed at how disciplined Elias is.  He doesn't chase shiny objects and he doesn't give a Frenchman's **** about the fans when it comes to holding onto players for sentimental reasons.  We saw that at the deadline last year with Lopez and Mancini.  He traded his only all-star and he traded a player who's adored by the community.  

So I don't think he's going to get far over his skis and tack on an extra year or tack on 10 million to sign someone if he feels that it's a poor idea to do so.  What I believe that he understands is that there's no one in this free agency class (outside of Judge) who's so transformative to a franchise in a way that can't be replicated with something he has in the pipeline or something that he can get in FA next year.  Or maybe even a trade at the deadline.  

In other words, there's always going to be someone else out there.  There's always going to be another free agent next year if we missed one on this year.  There's always another trade that's available in 6 months from now that he wasn't aware of in December.  There's always going to be another prospect.  Guys like Aaron Judge aren't fungible.  I'd argue Adley isn't, either.  Gunnar, as great of a prospect as he is, it remains to be seen if he is or isn't.  I'd argue that Correa is fungible.  But I digress.

Let's remember, his goal from Day 1 was to build a constant pipeline of talent to keep being promoted to Baltimore.  That's where his focus is and he hasn't strayed from that.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Moose Milligan

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I came into this off-season optimistic and realistic. I never will expect a massive FA deal for an arm from this team. I do think they would be willing to make a Verlander type trade. I would not expect them to retain someone for years after like Houston did. 
 

I am not in love with Manaea but he has a resume and a K rate that can work. The HR ball killed him last year. Camden should help. I may be wrong but I just don’t recall years ago seeing pitchers improve and at times resurrect their careers like we see now. Clearly analytics have impacted pitching at a high level. This club has little to no proven experience. They need a arm. I never expected one of the big boys. Yes, I do think Manaea is an example of mid level. 

My issue with Manaea is he's not appreciably better than what we have now. So what does the move really do for us in terms of building a roster to win a pennant? 

The other issue that I have with a signing like this is that there are better option out there. Thus, he represents the cheaper route. If we are going cheap now when we have a minuscule payroll, what does this say for our future approach when our own guys get more expensive?

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Who's accepting a lower bar?  Is this team still losing?  Are they not finally drafting and developing the right way?

This franchise in many respects is way, way different than where it was in 2018 and 2019.  It's practically a night and day difference.  

Then again, this message board has always had a borderline kinky obsession with free agency.  I'm pretty confident we can still win and still win big without having to bring in big name free agents.

OK, it’s cranky old man time, for those who didn’t live through it or remember.

In the 1976-77 offseason, which I believe was the very first offseason of full-on free agency, we lost one Hall of Famer (Reggie Jackson), one arguably should-be Hall of Famer (Bobby Grich) and one 20-game winner (Wayne Garland) to free agency.  Woe is me!

What followed was one of the most enjoyable 7-year stretches in Orioles history, including the ‘83 World Championship team, the ‘79 AL pennant-winner, the 100-win 1980 team, the 1982 team that finished 1 game behind the Brewers on the final day, and the 1977 team that was rookie-filled with guys like Eddie Murray.  

So what’s my point?  Just that big FA signings aren’t always the way a team succeeds.  To my recollection, the biggest FA acquisition we made in that time period was Steve Stone, who was more or less the 1978 equivalent of Kyle Gibson, with a career record of 67-71 and an ERA+ of 93.   He won a Cy Young two years later with the O’s.  And Chris Holt hadn’t even been born when we got him!

Don’t get me wrong, I still want to see the O’s make some significant moves this offseason.   But I won’t be giving up on 2023 or the upcoming phase of Orioles baseball no matter what they do this winter.  
 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Frobby

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Scott Feldman got himself 3 years from those Astros decision scientists.

But granted going short term with pitchers is a feature not a bug, keeping even Perfect Pitcher Justin Verlander to 2-year chunks being the clearest example.

I think Feldman is a good name to bring up. Was signed prior to 14. Gone before 17.  
 

In 17 the Astros highest paid SP who was there all year was Keuchel. Added Morton before the year. Had Fiers, McCullers, Peacock and Musgrove. McHugh made 12 starts. Traded for Verlander. 
 

They got 27 rWAR from. Atulve, Springer, M. Gonzalez, Bregman and Correa for a little over $13M. 
 

Clearly that is what the Elias formula is hoping for. The Orioles look more like the 15/16 Astros. I think the question isn’t will he invest but when? How far is he willing to go now? Is a mid level Feldman + arm a big ask?

[deward]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't disagree with any of that.  I share the same concerns, too.

I will say this, though.  I am impressed at how disciplined Elias is.  He doesn't chase shiny objects and he doesn't give a Frenchman's **** about the fans when it comes to holding onto players for sentimental reasons.  We saw that at the deadline last year with Lopez and Mancini.  He traded his only all-star and he traded a player who's adored by the community.  

So I don't think he's going to get far over his skis and tack on an extra year or tack on 10 million to sign someone if he feels that it's a poor idea to do so.  What I believe that he understands is that there's no one in this free agency class (outside of Judge) who's so transformative to a franchise in a way that can't be replicated with something he has in the pipeline or something that he can get in FA next year.  Or maybe even a trade at the deadline.  

Let's remember, his goal from Day 1 was to build a constant pipeline of talent to keep being promoted to Baltimore.  That's where his focus is and he hasn't strayed from that.

Discipline is good, until it turns into rigid adherence to dogma. I would expect a good GM to leave open some flexibility in their approach, depending on the circumstances. Last year's trades bothered me, not so much because of who he traded, but because he decided to undercut a team fighting for a wild card in the name of The Plan. I don't know that keeping Lopez and Mancini would have made any difference to the end result, probably not, but I don't view acquiring a couple of lottery tickets to be worth disrupting a team that was playing well. To my view, Elias didn't plan on that team being a winner and didn't adapt quickly enough to what was going on. 

[eddie83]

14 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Yes, however, spending money just to spend money (cough Aaron Judge to the Yankees cough) doesn't equate to winning.

Of course.  Adley and Gunnar will make about $1.5M this year. Heck maybe you get 12 WAR from them. If the Orioles spend $4/80M on an OF today people get excited. Be lucky to get 12 WAR over total of deal. 

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, deward said:

Discipline is good, until it turns into rigid adherence to dogma. I would expect a good GM to leave open some flexibility in their approach, depending on the circumstances. Last year's trades bothered me, not so much because of who he traded, but because he decided to undercut a team fighting for a wild card in the name of The Plan. I don't know that keeping Lopez and Mancini would have made any difference to the end result, probably not, but I don't view acquiring a couple of lottery tickets to be worth disrupting a team that was playing well. To my view, Elias didn't plan on that team being a winner and didn't adapt quickly enough to what was going on. 

Unless/until we see a significant divergence in philosophies one should assume the approach will be recognizable to the one Houston took when the O's current braintrust was there. 

They didn't allow their surprising success after 2015 change their approach - thety stuck with the plan - they let young guys take their lumps and their W-L recrod took a step backwards in 2016.  It all started to pay off in 2017 and that point they did make the moves (acquiring JV etc...) to go for it.  

I don't see any reason to think the Orioles are going to suddenly take a radically different approach than that one that Elias was part of that won a championship.

Edited December 7, 2022 by geschinger

[Just Regular]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My issue with Manaea is he's not appreciably better than what we have now. So what does the move really do for us in terms of building a roster to win a pennant? 

People keep saying things like this, but didn't they see Spenser Watkins, Michael Baumann and Bruce Zimmermann pitch last year?

The Orioles have a Stars and Scrubs roster that right now (unlike say the Giants) that is easy to improve.     A 1.5 win pitcher might push a 3-win improvement, but you still have to compete and win the bidding for that player.

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, it’s cranky old man time, for those who didn’t live through it or remember.

In the 1976-77 offseason, which I believe was the very first offseason of full-on free agency, we lost one Hall of Famer (Reggie Jackson), one arguably should-be Hall of Famer (Bobby Grich) and one 20-game winner (Wayne Garland) to free agency.  Woe is me!

What followed was one of the most enjoyable 7-year stretches in Orioles history, including the ‘83 World Championship team, the ‘79 AL pennant-winner, the 100-win 1980 team, the 1982 team that finished 1 game behind the Brewers on the final day, and the 1977 team that was rookie-filled with guys like Eddie Murray.  

So what’s my point?  Just that big FA signings aren’t always the way a team succeeds.  To my recollection, the biggest FA acquisition we made in that time period was Steve Stone, who was more or less the 1978 equivalent of Kyle Gibson, with a career record of 67-71 and an ERA+ of 93.   He won a Cy Young two years later with the O’s.  And Chris Holt hadn’t even been born when we got him!

Don’t get me wrong, I still want to see the O’s make some significant moves this offseason.   But I won’t be giving up on 2023 or the upcoming phase of Orioles baseball no matter what they do this winter.  
 

Aren't you retired?  No need to be cranky, Froberto Clemente.  Pour yourself a Mai Tai and put your feet up.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, deward said:

Discipline is good, until it turns into rigid adherence to dogma. I would expect a good GM to leave open some flexibility in their approach, depending on the circumstances. Last year's trades bothered me, not so much because of who he traded, but because he decided to undercut a team fighting for a wild card in the name of The Plan. I don't know that keeping Lopez and Mancini would have made any difference to the end result, probably not, but I don't view acquiring a couple of lottery tickets to be worth disrupting a team that was playing well. To my view, Elias didn't plan on that team being a winner and didn't adapt quickly enough to what was going on. 

I don't want to turn this into a re-hash of the deadline deals last year but we disagree on this.  

[deward]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

Unless/until we see a significant divergence in philosophies one should assume the approach will be recognizable to the one Houston took when the O's current braintrust was there. 

They didn't allow their surprising success after 2015 and stuck with the plan - they let young guys take their lumps and their W-L recrod took a step backwards in 2016.  It all paid off in 2017 and that point they did make the moves (acquiring JV etc...) to go for it.  

I don't see any reason to think the Orioles are going to take suddenly take a radically different approach than that one that Elias was part of that won a championship.

They also supported the 2015 team by trading for Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez at the deadline. They didn't keep trading away pieces. They didn't sign any big free agents going into 2016, but they did swing a big trade for Ken Giles. Fairly aggressive moves were made once the winning started.